016
FXUS63 KGLD 301038
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
438 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate rainfall is forecast to continue through the night.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and
  again Thursday evening with a weak cold front. Damaging winds
  to 70 mph is the primary hazard and torrential rainfall
  leading to nuisance flooding. Isolated instances of large hail
  or accumulating hail is possible as well.

- Gusty winds of 35-45 mph are possible outside of the storms
  with Thursday evening cold front.

- Breezy and little cooler Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 429 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Have added in some patchy fog across northeast portions of the
area due to light winds and low dew point depressions along with
some visibilities already falling to around 6sm. Another area of
patchy fog has been added into southern Cheyenne (CO) from the
overnight rainfall as light winds and clearing skies have been
observed thus far this morning. Increased pops across SW
Nebraska due to some new development of showers and weak storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1222 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

High pressure from the past several days has set up across New
Mexico and western Texas helping keep subsidence at bay for the
region. Current storms coming off the Front Range have thus far been
unable to sustain themselves across Yuma, Kit Carson and Cheyenne
(CO) counties as RAP cross sections does show a little bit of drier
air near the surface despite the dew points in the 60s. Forcing
around 800mb is forecast to begin to increase which should be
enough to overcome the dry air and have rainfall reach the
ground and persist as it continues to move to the east. 03Z RAP
depicts a warm front situated just south of Interstate 70 from
roughly Colby to SW Gove county along with the nose of a low
level jet situated riding over the front which should be enough
additional lift for either new storms to develop or enough to
allow for some backbuilding of storms with a developing MCS
currently across the Palmer Divide. Severe weather threat is
fairly low with this activity but still can`t rule out a rogue
wind gust around 60 mph. The relatively higher threat, but still
low, is flooding concerns as a moist air mass remains in place
with PWATS of 1.9-2. Moisture transport vectors are parallel to
the mean wind from the southwest continuing to support
monsoonal mid level flow and coinciding with light easterly up
slope winds at the surface which should be able to keep this
MCS in tact. I did give some consideration for a short fuse
Flood Watch but opted to hold off given a bit too quick for my
liking Corfidi Vectors and also am noticing a little bit of dry
air in soundings around 700mb which was also noted over the
previous few nights which wound up dissipating rainfall. The dry
air seen in the soundings is also keeping me from going higher
on precipitation chances in the forecast for overnight. Similar
to the past few nights should the rainfall fail to develop then
fog, including dense fog would be a concern with high surface
to 1km mixing heights in place and light winds.

Thursday, high pressure expands a little bit further to north again
as high temperatures are forecast to be a little warmer than
Wednesday with widespread low to mid 90s again forecast. During the
afternoon hours another shortwave off of the Front Range is
forecast to move through the area and is forecast to initiate
showers and storms across eastern Colorado and into far NW
Kansas. 0-6km bulk shear is forecast to be better Thursday than
it has the previous day as it is progged to be around 30-35
knots which could support some brief supercell characteristics
initially before congealing into a cluster of east-southeast
moving cells due to straight line hodographs. Lapse rates are a
bit meager around 6-7 c/km but think max hail potential would
be up to golf balls along with wind gusts of 60-70 mph and
torrential rainfall would be the main issues. Accumulating hail
could be the most impactful hail impact as well due to deep
freezing heights seen in soundings.

During the late evening hours, a weak cold front is forecast to
move south into the area forming more showers and storms. These
have the relative higher potential of being severe with
damaging winds around 70 mph and large hail the primary threats.
We could also have small window for a quick spinup QLCS tornado
especially with any cell mergers but confidence in that is very
low. The favored area for this potential second round of storms
is along and east of a Trenton to Monument Rocks line.
Torrential rainfall is also forecast with these storms as well
so will also need to keep an eye on flash flooding potential as
PWATS remain around 2. Further west out of the storms winds are
forecast to increase with the cold front with gusts of 35-45
mph. Did see that the 00Z NAM did have a bit of a stronger
850mb jet than other guidance which could support wind gusts of
around 50-55 mph so will be interesting to see if that was a
rogue run or if other guidance will start picking up on the
higher wind gust potential.

For Friday, a somewhat cooler day in store behind our weak cold
front with breezy northerly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range
gradually decreasing through the day. High temperatures for the
day are currently forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s across
the area. The biggest change will be drier air as seen in
surface to 30mb AGL dew points building over the area dropping
dewpoints into the low 50s or even upper 40s bringing a little
relief from the high humidity recently. Do not think the
strongest winds will align with drier conditions however, so
concern for any fire weather threat is low. Drier air will push
instability to the south and west, limiting any diurnal
thunderstorm threat to eastern Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be hot, dry and windy.
Saturday, we start off in a weak ridging pattern with sunny skies
and high temperatures forecast in the 90s. Sunday, we transition
into more of a zonal pattern for the remainder of the long term
period. High temperatures are forecast in the 90s for the week with
some areas of the county warning area (CWA) reaching the 100s on
Monday. Winds begin to pick up Sunday evening for our Colorado
counties with gusts around 30 mph possible. Overnight Sunday into
Monday for the entire CWA with gusts from 20 to 40 mph possible. The
western CWA will be on the higher end of wind gusts. Monday through
Wednesday, there is around a 20% chance of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms from embedded shortwave passages.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 429 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

IFR ceilings are ongoing at MCK but with new shower/storm
development does put some question into how long these
conditions will last. 06Z REFS does suggest that at least IFR
ceilings will continue through around 14-15Z. If one of these
showers/storms were to move over the terminal then a quick
reduction to around 3SM may be observed. For GLD may see a brief
period of MVFR conditions but currently have low confidence in
that so have opted to hint at it with a sct030. Overall light
winds are forecast before a front moves through overnight
shifting winds to the north and increasing them to 15-20 knots.
There is some guidance that does hint at higher winds. Showers
and storms may again impact each terminal with the relative
higher confidence at MCK around 04Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Trigg