596
FXUS63 KGLD 140426
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1026 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some fog and stratus is possible Saturday morning; dense fog
  can`t be ruled out.

- Discrete cells Friday afternoon may eventually grow upscale
  into a cluster during the evening. Strong to severe storms are
  forecast.

- Strong to perhaps severe potential continues through the
  weekend. Tuesday may be a more widespread severe weather day.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Have extended Severe Watch 412 for Yuma county through 05Z as
the main cell remains near Wray and some additional
redevelopment further to the SW along and outflow boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Synoptically, we`re in an interesting pattern as a ridge extends up
from Baja California and a stationary low sits over Missouri. This
has been allowing for diurnal shortwaves to fire off of the Rockies,
giving us daily chances at storms. In the low levels, we will not be
lacking moisture as the 850 mb flow, while not terribly strong, will
continue to funnel moisture into the region.

Through the mid-day, an area of moisture convergence has sparked
some storms along and southeast of a line from Hill City to Leoti,
KS. These storms do have over 2,500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with, but
the lack of shear and a strong forcing mechanism is preventing them
from really taking off. Lightning is the main hazard from these
storms. These storms may present an issue for the storms later this
evening. The cooler air these showers and storms are leaving may
drain some of the energy the later storms would tap into. There is
only a 15% chance these storms impact the overall severe potential
of the later storms.

The NAMNEST has been showing some isolated storms firing in 2 areas
ahead of the main line between 21-0Z. The first area, which is
looking less likely (5-10% chance), would be south of I-70 along the
western edges of the CWA, along the dryline. The second area, which
has about a 15-25% chance of forming, would be around the Tri-State
border, due to the retreating dryline. These early storms, if they
do form, would generally be high based and may produce dry lightning
and/or erratic wind shifts. 1 inch hail or a brief landspout cannot
be ruled out either

As is expected in this pattern, a shortwave looks to spark the
storms and drive them into the GLD CWA this afternoon/evening. This
round of storms will form in northeastern Colorado and proceed to
the east, then southeast. All hazards will be possible with these
storms. In the far northwestern CWA, there is a supercell tornado
threat as the storms are grouping together, cell mergers may play a
part in this. Hail potentially up to 2 inches will also be possible
during this time. As the storms group together, wind will become
more of a threat, and as the storms progress to the southeast, where
rain has not recently fallen, blowing dust will be a concern. CAMs
are showing a moderately organized outflow starting around 4-5Z,
this would provide the best potential for a haboob. The threat for a
haboob is only around 10% now due to the following factors. 1)
recent rainfall has likely been able to settle the surface layer
dust for the areas that would likely see the strongest winds. 2) The
main wind threat is expected to be after sunset, allowing near
surface lapse rates to lower, which is less supportive of blowing
dust. From this outflow, a QLCS may also form, and although the
shear is pretty weak, we cannot rule out a quick spin-up tornado.
Winds during this time could gust up to 65 kts. Main timing for the
severe threats will be between 22-6Z, however there is still a wide
variance with timing between CAMs for the storms today. Storms may
start enter the CWA early as 20Z, or as late as 4Z. We are watching
the potential for a flash flooding threat in the areas that received
more than an inch of rain early this morning, especially the Oakley
area.

These storms, depending on when they fire, are expected to last past
midnight, with lingering, scatted showers continuing into Saturday
morning. There is a 10% chance of additional storm developing around
10-14Z tomorrow morning, which would give the northeastern 1/4 of
the CWA another chance at rain and hail. The storm`s cloud cover
will keep us somewhat warm overnight, keeping our temperatures in
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Tomorrow, another shortwave will eject off of the Rockies in the
late afternoon, potentially bringing us more storms in the late
afternoon into the overnight hours. While CAMs are showing
northwestern Yuma county will see a decaying supercell, around 3-7Z,
giving this portion of the CWA a brief hail and wind threat as the
storm(s) fall apart. However, there will also be an elevated weak
warm front extending from around Yuma, CO to Scott City, KS where
additional storms may form. Details are very murky as of now, but
the take away is there is another overnight severe weather potential
tomorrow night with 1-1.5 inch hail and 50-60 MPH winds being the
main threats. High temperatures tomorrow are expected to warm into
the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday, the pattern looks to remain largely the same as the ridge
continues to push in farther from the southwest and the low over
Missouri slows exits to the east. The Goodland CWA looks to be on
the northeastern edge of the ridge, so we can still expect to see
some shortwave systems impacting the area, allowing us to see some
isolated, daily storms through Monday afternoon. This continues
until Tuesday evening when a large trough is expected to enter from
the Pacific northwest and push the high back south. This looks to be
our next good chance at storms and we have a 15% outlook from SPC
for this risk. As this trough pushes farther east, there will be
multiple waves of divergence that will promote storm development
through around Thursday night.

Around Friday morning, give or take a day, the high looks to move
back north, into the Great Plains, blocking us from the jet for a
good portion of the weekend. This will cause temperatures to climb
and keep any good chances at precipitation at bay. This will
increase the potential for critical fire weather conditions, so we
will be keeping a close eye on that.

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 90s, with
100 not out of the question. Wednesday and probably Thursday,
temperatures look to be capped about 7-10 degrees cooler, before the
high returns. When the high returns late next week, we can expect
mid 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Continuing to watch a cluster of storms turn to the ESE from
northeast Colorado and west Nebraska. Confidence is higher in
impacts to KMCK from this with very heavy rain and severe
winds main concern at this time; a little more iffy still for
KGLD which will be dependent on southward development along an
outflow boundary so will maintain the Prob30 for now. Dependent
on how quickly the rain moves out of the area fog and/or stratus
may develop Saturday morning as moisture continues to advect in
but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this
time. SSE winds are forecast to continue Saturday with some
gusts of 20-25 knots. Another potential for afternoon and
evening showers and storms but coverage remains less than 30%
confidence at this time so will not include in this set of TAFS.
There is however a signal for a LLJ for KGLD with LLWS so have
included that, the orientation of the jet will be dependent if
KMCK will need to eventually be included.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg