995
FXUS63 KGLD 020606
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1106 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog may develop over portions of the area early Monday morning,
  mainly along and east of Highway 83. There is a low chance
  for patchy dense freezing fog or freezing drizzle a few hours
  on either side of sunrise, mainly in Norton and Graham
  counties. Even a trace amount of ice on bridges and overpasses
  could create hazardous travel conditions.

- Most of next week, there are chances for precipitation across
  the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1124 AM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Weak embedded waves within the mid level flow are traversing
across the area leading to an increase in echoes across eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface, looking at
forecast soundings and cross sections there is dry air that is
still needing to be overcome so think the majority of what is
currently being seen is virga. 280K isentropic analysis suggests
that there may be pockets for localized freezing drizzle or a
sleet/snow/freezing rain mix to occur across the Graham/Norton
county areas through the afternoon.

This evening and overnight, a climatologically favorable
pattern for fog and stratus presents itself. Fog is forecast to
be developed around 09Z but could be as early as 05-06Z
depending on how quickly saturation can occur. Temperatures are
forecast to be below freezing leading to freezing fog concerns.
Am opting to leave mainly patchy wording in the forecast for now
as any periods of light precip could break up the fog for a
bit. There is dense fog potential as well due to the how deep
some forecast guidance suggests the low level saturation to be.
If it wasn`t for some light precipitation potential would opt
for area wording and not patchy. Confidence in fog potential
1-5sm is around 50% and less than 1SM is around 20-30%. Long
duration dense fog is currently around 10% which is precluding
the issue of a Dense Fog Advisory.

Now to the precipitation potential for tonight. Forcing does
not look as favorable as what was the past few days. Guidance
has trended towards more "pockets" of freezing drizzle or a
light wintry mix overnight. This is characterized by -1 to -2
omega the 925-850mb level. The tricky part of the forecast which
does lower my confidence in the precipitation side of things is
that when the low level omega becomes more broad it doesn`t
correlate enough with deep saturation seen in soundings which
may lower the ability for any "ice crystals" to develop. Due to
the low confidence in the coverage and duration of the freezing
drizzle or wintry mix am opting to hold off on any Winter
Weather Advisories for now.

Monday, fog and any potential winter weather is forest to come
to an end mid morning. Winds are however forecast to increase
mainly along and west of Highway 25 as a pressure gradient
develop across the area. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts
around 30 mph are currently forecast to occur. Thankfully fire
weather does not look to be a concern as the strongest winds are
forecast to occur along and east of the Kansas/Colorado line
where humidity values around 30% are currently forecast to
reside. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper
40s across the east to the upper 60s across eastern Colorado.

Monday night, moisture advection again is forecast to occur
from the south. Fog and stratus will again be a concern and has
potential to be a bit more widespread than tonight. There is
however a better signal for precipitation to occur as well due
to stronger low level omega again in the 925-850 mb level. There
is a also a stout 700mb short wave and vorticity maxima that is
forecast to move across the area as well further increasing
confidence in precipitation to occur due to the additional lift.
A developing surface low is also forecast to be in place as
well which is forecast to favor precipitation across the eastern
portion of the forecast area and the northern due to a cold
front associated with the back end of the low. If the low could
remain a bit further west then some isolated thunderstorms could
be possible across Gove and Graham counties as guidance
indicates around 500 j/kg of MUCAPE advecting into the area with
the moisture; but confidence in that less than 10% at this
time. On the wraparound side with the cold front favoring
northern and northwest portions of the area. Light rain is
currently favored but if the area can be cold enough or if
temperatures could fall locally a bit more due to latent heat
release from the rainfall then a change over to a wet snow could
be possible as wet bulb zero on the GFS and ECMWF do support
this. If snow were to occur little to no impacts would be
expected with minimal snow amounts due to the warm ground
temperatures. The one part of that statement that could humble
me is that guidance does suggest around 100 j/kg of MUCAPE which
could lead to locally higher amounts but currently members of
the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest that amounts would max out
around an inch locally.

Tuesday, precipitation chances are forecast to continue across
the majority of the forecast area and be tied to the cold front
but remain forecast as mainly rainfall. A gradual northwest to
southeast end to the precipitation is forecast to occur as we
head into Tuesday evening. High temperatures for the day will be
tied to the position of the low and how quickly it moves off to
the east. Highs are currently forecast in the upper 40s/50s
across the north and mid 60s to the south. Confidence is not
high enough to favor changes at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

Starting the extended period Wednesday, surface troughing is
forecast to be in place across the area. Winds are forecast to
remain lighter due to the lack of any pressure gradients. Have
some concerns that current forecast from the NBM is to warm as
cloud cover may be a bit to thick and possible even linger as
well.

Thursday troughing across the west starts to become a bit more
vigorous as strong consensus of a dry line developing is seen as
well. A tightening pressure gradient also does continue to lead
to some concerns of critical fire weather conditions behind the
dry line. Confidence in any hazards currently is fairly low as
a large spread in the 25-75th percentile dew points indicates
that the dry line could set up further west as well. Thursday
evening is when there is some potential for a bit more activity
in the weather. A surface low is progged to develop currently
across southeast Colorado. In fact the consensus of low position
is a bit further west according to the ECMWF ensembles than
what deterministic suggests which if it were to verify then
precipitation chances and thunder chances may increase for
eastern portions of the area. Currently am leaning towards an
increase in thunderstorm potential Thursday night as additional
upper level forcing in the form of 250mb jet moves across the
area and the ECMWF does favor the westward trend of the dryline.
This currently seems a bit more reasonable as the GFS an over
mixing bias and frequently shoves the dryline to far east. GEFS
spaghetti models also does show a split signal for the trough to
eject a little further north as well which would further
increase this scenario.

As we head into Friday the track and the location of the low
will then have major influences on the weather. A cold front is
forecast to move through the area along with a mid level
inverted trough also leading to some additional forcing. Snow
chances may increase across the northwest portion of the area
including the potential for accumulating snow as some of the
ECMWF and GEFS ensembles suggest. There is also the potential
for the forecast area to be dry slotted which seems to be what
the majority of guidance suggests at the moment. So will see how
things trend over the coming days. Next weekend is currently
forecasted for more above normal temperatures but another low
spinning across across the SW CONUS and another potential cold
front could alter the forecast; confidence in either is to low
to go into further detail currently.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MST Sun Mar 1 2026

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with
ceilings confined to cirrus at or above ~20,000 ft AGL. South
winds at 5-10 knots will increase to 15-25 knots late Monday
morning (~18Z) and persist into the afternoon. Winds will back
to the SSE and decrease to 8-13 knots around, or shortly before,
sunset Monday evening.

MCK: As of 0530Z this evening, McCook was situated on the far
western fringe of an expansive area of low stratus over central
KS-NE. Ongoing IFR ceilings may persist through sunrise.
Reductions in visibility associated with fog are also possible a
few hours on either side of sunrise. Expect low ceilings to
lift/scatter during the late morning (by ~18Z Mon). E to SE
winds at ~6-12 knots will prevail through the majority of the
TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent