169
FXUS63 KGLD 250511
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1111 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong cold front Saturday brings in prolonged precipitation
  potential through Monday. Low chance of flooding from this
  system.

- Freezing temperatures look to return Tuesday morning. Wind
  chills may be in the mid 20s near the Tri-State border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Current observations have an upper cut-off low over the Desert
Southwest. At the surface, a cold front is moving through the area
and was stretched across from Cheyenne Wells to Norton close to the
noon hour. Behind the front, winds have shifted to out of the north
and picked up with speeds around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
This should persist through the afternoon and early evening hours,
before slowly fading as the front and pressure gradient weakens.
Showers continue to pop up in the area with the upstream upper low,
front moving through, and continued moisture advection in the
southerly flow ahead of the front. The activity is currently
disorganized and producing light rain with little instability to
work with. However, the widespread cloud cover as a result is
capping temperatures, likely limiting highs to in the 50s.

This evening and into the overnight hours, rain and storm activity
is forecast to increase with a surface low taking better shape just
southwest of the area and pushing rain north into the area. The
front is also likely to stall just south of the area and help
produce more rain. Storms currently look to be hit and miss with the
area unlikely to recover any instability, especially with the early
showers moving through. We should still see moderate to heavy rain
at times and allow some areas to accumulate an inch or a little
more. With the increase in moisture, fog is likely to develop across
the area. This will be especially true for areas that don`t see rain
for a few hours at a time. This could also allow for some patches of
dense fog with an upslope component to the surface winds from the
east/northeast. Temperatures aren`t forecast to change too much
overnight, though likely drop into the 40s as cold air tries to move
in from the north behind the cold front.

Sunday, the upper low is forecast to shift slightly northeast and
center closer to the Four Corners region. As it does so, the area is
forecast to initially be in a weak surface flow pattern underneath
high pressure. With the flow forecast to be from the east, fog could
persist most of the morning and into the afternoon. Precipitation,
will likely be more spotty through the morning and early afternoon
hours with very weak forcing in the area. With the cloud cover and
fog, temperatures are unlikely to change much with highs in the 50s
for most of the area. Those in the east may see some 60s as the
increased low level moisture drives dewpoints into the mid to upper
50s. Shower and storm activity should increase during the afternoon
and evening hours as the upper low gets closer and another near
surface low develops on the lee of the Rockies and provides some
additional forcing. The activity should peak during the evening
hours, then weaken as the pressure gradient becomes weaker and
forcing lowers. Another night of light rain showers and fog is then
forecast for a majority of the area, with maybe some clearing in
Eastern Colorado if the upper low pushes far enough east. Lows will
likely be in the 40s and 50s, with a few 30s where clearing occurs.

Monday, the upper low is forecast to push north and east, weakening
its influence over the area. The area could still have some
lingering showers and fog through much of the morning, but should
clear from west to east. With the skies clearing, most of the area
should warm into the 60s. Winds are forecast to lighten as the day
goes on with broad low pressure spreading across the area. During
the overnight hours, we are forecast to become much colder with much
of the area near or below freezing by sunrise Tuesday. This is due
to drier air forecast to move in, and clearer skies. Those east of
Highway 83 may escape the cold and stay closer to the 40s.

The hydro section below covers the flooding threat pretty well. But
in short, if bands get set up during the heavier rainfall in the
late afternoon and evening hours, there will be a 35% chance of
flooding. The main inhibitors are the potential lack of convection
(lowering rainfall rates) and the system moving just enough to limit
training shower/storm potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Tuesday, we are forecast to be under a weak ridge with a digging
trough west of the Rocky Mountains. Temperatures are expected to be
pleasant with highs forecast in the 60s for the county warning area
(CWA).

Our region is forecast to be on the back end of a weak jet streak,
so we have the potential for breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon for
the western CWA. Wind gusts up to 30 mph are possible, although
lingering cloud cover from earlier precipitation could prevent
stronger winds from mixing down to the surface. If skies completely
clear or clear earlier, we could see stronger winds. Models are a
bit conflicted on the wind potential due to placement of the jet
streak and potential cloud cover. NBM probabilities have around a
40% chance of wind gusts over 35 mph for our Colorado counties. LREF
has probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph less than 10%.

Conditions are forecast to remain pleasant on Wednesday with partly
cloudy skies and high temperatures forecast in the 60s across the
area. As the day progresses, we transition to more of a southwest
upper-level flow with a developing trough off the west coast.

Thursday and Friday, the forecast remains consistent with high
temperatures forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s. Our southwesterly
upper-level flow will bring chances for rain showers late Thursday
through Friday evening as embedded shortwaves are ejected across the
region. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) are around 20-30% with
low QPF amounts.

Looking past Friday, we have the potential to return to more of an
active weather pattern based on the forecast track and evolution of
the aforementioned trough off the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

IFR conditions are expected to dominate through the period for
KGLD and KMCK through the period. Ceilings will be the main
driving force for the categories, however precipitation and fog
will occasionally drop visibilities and may raise ceilings.
Airport minimums are possible around sunrise if the
precipitation lessens and fog is able to form. If the rain
sticks around, LIFR conditions should be expected. Rain is
forecast to lighten up during the day a bit, but return in the
afternoon and evening hours. Surface temperatures are expected
to drop to the upper 30s this morning and the freezing layer
will continue to get closer to the surface. Be prepared for
icing conditions under 10,000 feet this morning, potentially as
low at 2,000 feet.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

As mentioned in the short-term discussion above, we are expecting on
and off precipitation to last into Monday evening. WPC has issued
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks showing portions of the CWA in a Slight
risk. These outlooks aren`t unfounded, but confidence for flash
flooding, which that outlook focuses on, is less than 15%. Reason
being, there does not seem to be a particular time when heavy rain
is expected to fall.

Deterministic guidance is suggesting 1-2 inches of rain falling over
most of the CWA, a band of up to 3 inches, and pockets of up to 4.5
inches of rainfall by Tuesday morning. This is likely too high of
QPF values, which is supported by ensemble means. Ensemble means
suggest most of the CWA will receive 0.25-1 inch, a band of up to 2
inches, and isolated pockets up to 3 inches. These values seem more
realistic and are reflected in the official forecast.

This band of higher precipitation amounts will occur where the cold
front stalls out Saturday evening, creating a stationary boundary.
This will be a north-northeast/south-southwest oriented band,
potentially stretching across the entire CWA, but is favored (60%)
to remain south of I-70. The band is likely (66%) to setup along and
west of a line from Atwood to Selkirk, KS, but may setup as far east
as U.S. 283. Wherever the band sets up, there will be a 35% chance
of areal and/or river flooding. Low water crossings will likely be
the first areas impacted from any flooding that does occur.

It`s worth noting, there is a 25% chance that the boundary does not
remain very stationary and "bounces" back and forth. If this occurs,
a well defined band of higher precipitation would likely not form
and the risk of flooding lowers to around 10%.

In total, there is:

 85% confidence the entire CWA will receive a tenth of an inch or
more of rain from this system.

 Less than 15% confidence in Flash Flooding.

 35% confidence areal and/or river flooding will occur.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA