937
FXUS63 KGLD 031816
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1216 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-40%) through
  the start of next week.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Upper ridge located today from the Southern Plains to the
southeast CONUS will reset over the Central Plains and
strengthen over the weekend. The High Plains will be on the
western side of the ridge axis with weak southwest flow. At the
surface, the lee trough will be persistent over eastern
Colorado through the period with little movement expected. Under
the ridge, temperatures will continue to be above normal, with
highs in the 90s and a few locations in the lower 100s. The
deepening lee trough will result in increasing south to
southeasterly winds, with the strongest winds in the Kansas and
Colorado border area. Gusts Saturday afternoon will be up to 35
mph and gusts by Sunday afternoon will be up to 40 mph.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the area
beginning on Friday and continue through the weekend. Generally
speaking, convection will initiate in southeast Colorado
associated with weak disturbances rotating around the ridge, as
well as the typical afternoon storms in the mountains and Front
Range. Additional storms may develop in the local area along
mesoscale boundaries such as the lee trough. Environmental
parameters will be weak, with instability peaking at 1000-1500
j/kg and deep layer shear of 10-20 kts. A more favorable
parameter will be DCAPE due to the hot and relatively dry
boundary layer, with values as high as 2000 j/kg. The overall
severe threat will be low through the period, but cannot
discount a marginally severe wind threat given the favorable
DCAPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM MDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Sunday through early next week, large upper level ridge over
the Dakotas and Minnesota starts sliding and amplifying towards
the east as the low pressure system in the Pacific Northwest
region begins moving east into Southern Canada. This will cause
the pattern to shift into zonal flow over the majority of
Northern CONUS on Wednesday. Upper level southwesterly flow is
still expected until the low pressure system completely moves
through transitioning to a more westerly flow. With diurnal
heating and deepening embedded shortwave troughs, there is high
confidence (75%) that a weak storm could happen Sunday evening
over the northern portions of the forecast area. While there is
storm supporting mixed layer (ML) CAPE value of 640 J/kg, storm
motion will be relatively slow. Heavy rainfall would be the main
potential hazard as precipitable water (PWats) is forecast to
be 1.45 inches.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for afternoon
and evening showers do increase as the low pressure continues
to move further northeast. Probability of Precipitation (PoPs)
for Monday evening will be 35-40% in northern Yuma county and
taper down to 10% towards Gove county. Tuesday afternoon looks
to be similar to Sunday afternoon as a weak cold front will pass
through from the low pressure system with ML CAPE value at
840J/kg and a disorganized wind shear profile. There is low to
medium confidence (35-40%) that this will happen as there is
inconsistency within the guidance. PoPs for Wednesday evening is
ranging from 30-35% throughout the entire area, but there is
low confidence that this will stay as the pattern changes.

Temperatures are forecast to start above normal with the
potential to drop back into seasonal temperatures with Sunday
and Monday highs being in the low to mid 90s. There is growing
uncertainty with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the
potential cold front moving through. NBM 75th to 25th
percentiles have a 9 degree difference from the forecasted
temperature with potential temperatures dipping further into the
upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period with light winds and mostly clear skies.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK/Moeller
AVIATION...024