461
FXUS63 KGLD 300654
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1254 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal to slight risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening along and east of a dry line from Wray,
  Colorado, to Gove, Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds will
  be the main threats, with a low risk for a tornado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1245 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

An upper low over southeast Wyoming today will drift northward
into Montana by Sunday. A vorticity lobe rotating around it will
move across eastern Colorado this afternoon and into Kansas and
Nebraska this evening, providing synoptic scale lift. At the
surface, a dry line will sharpen by early this afternoon, moving
out of eastern Colorado and into northwest Kansas/southwest
Nebraska by 21z. As the upper lift approaches, thunderstorms
will develop along the dry line. While there is some slight
variations in the models regarding the location of the dry line,
the consensus places it roughly along a Trenton, Nebraska, to
Oberlin and Hill City, Kansas, line. East of the dry line, dew
points will rapidly increase into the 50s and 60s, and SBCAPE
will be moderately to very unstable with values up to 3500 j/kg
shown by the REFS mean along the far eastern edge of the
forecast area at 00z. Models are in less agreement regarding
deep layer shear. HREF mean shows a modest increase from around
20 kts at 21z to 35-40 kts by 00z, while the REFS mean shows
the shear decreasing during that time. HRRR and NAMnest show a
very narrow corridor of enhanced shear along/and on the eastern
edge of the dry line. Not surprisingly, latest CAM reflectivity
simulations present a mixed bag of scenarios, with the HRRR
showing virtually no convection in the forecast area, while the
NAMnest and RRFS show one or two stronger cells along the dry
line prior to 00z, then lifting north out of the area. Almost
all of the CAMs show the strongest storms developing in the
Nebraska panhandle where instability will be lower but shear and
lift will be stronger. Depending on how far south that line
extends, it is not implausible that the far northern forecast
area, from Yuma County through southwest Nebraska, could be
impacted during the evening hours. Will also have to watch for
the possibility of outflow boundaries with strong to severe wind
gusts moving into the area from the east or north regardless of
whether or not storms develop in the area, with very favorable
DCAPE forecast up to 2000 j/kg. However, overall confidence is
medium at best for severe weather occurring in the forecast
area given the model discrepancies, particularly regarding deep
layer shear. Any severe threat should be over by 06z at the
latest.

On Sunday, with the upper low in Montana will have more of a
zonal flow aloft over the Central Plains. While there is another
weak embedded wave, the surface pattern will not be nearly as
favorable. The area is forecast to have light winds with a
westerly component and dew points in the 30s and 40s. The lack
of moisture and instability will be enough to keep it dry.
Temperatures will however warm slightly into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Afternoon relative humidity minimums will be in the
mid to upper teens, but with the light winds and recent rainfall
not anticipating any fire weather issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Starting with Sunday, the upper level pattern has a shortwave trough
making its way through the County Warning Area (CWA). There is a jet
streak over the Rockies and the entrance begins to creep in. The
high temperatures for the day look to warm up to the mid to high 80s
with some localized 90s in the southeastern portions of the region.
The lows look to be in the 50s with some localized mid 40s for the
Colorado Counties. Winds look to be relatively calm and out of the
southeast.

There has been some slight changes in the precipation chances for
Sunday`s afternoon compared to yesterdays forecast. The CAPE values
have decreased quite a bit. NBM and LREF both have there being at
most 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE for Red Willow, Norton, and Graham
counties. Other models are agreeing as well. Surface to 500 mb shear
values really haven`t change much and still remain in the 25-40 kts
range. If there are thunderstorms that develop and they are severe,
the main hazards would be, would be 1.50" hail and gusts up to 40-50
kts.

One thing to note is depending on how quick Saturday`s system exits
the CWA or if we get any wrap around precipitation, Sunday`s
afternoon storm chances may increase.


For The upper pattern there looks to be a ridge that is sandwiched
between two lows over Canada on Monday. Guidance is showing a
little shortwave disturbance that can be seen at 500 mb that
moves through the CWA. The high temperatures for the day are in
the 80s to 90s. The lows remain in the 50s.

There are chances for precipitation/storm chances for Monday.
Starting with instability, guidance is suggesting there being at
least 1000 J/kg of SFC-CAPE. Some models do suggest there being
around 2000 J/kg which would be on the higher end. The NBM and
LREF`s 90th percentile show around 2000 J/kg as well. Moving to wind
shear, the SFC-500 mb shear is in the 30-45 kts range. The lapse
rates are currently forecast to be in the 7.9-9.0 C/km range. Dew
points look to be in the 45-55 degrees. NCAR AI-NWP does show a
signal that would help build confidence in severe weather outcomes.
Currently, there is some disagreements with location and specific
timing, but the timing does look to be the afternoon into evening.
Looking at  soundings there is a mixture of both hooked and straight-
line hodographs. The main threats that would be associated with
these storms would be hail up to 1.50", Gusts in the 45-55 kts, and
a brief tornado could be possible if storms develop.

Tuesday high temperatures are in the 80s and lows in the 50s. The
winds look to be from the southeast and relatively calm. There is
precipation chances for the day. The main timing looks to be in the
early evening into the night. CAPE is the range of 1000-1500 J/kg,
with little to no shear, which would lead to very little severe
chances. Looking at the PoPs there is 50-60% chance. There is about
a 20-30% of exceeding 0.10". The PWATs for the CWA show 1"-1.25".
Looking at GFS sounds the atmosphere is deeply saturated. Also
looking Corfidi up and downshear magnitude would be around or under
20 kts. This would suggest the storms/showers would be slow-moving
or stationary.


For the extended period of the week, the low pressure system to the
northwest of the ridge will kick out some shortwave troughs that
will bring precipitation chances to the region. This does look to be
on the weaker side as it quickly crumbles away come Wednesday. Then
the upper flow transitions to more zonal flow.

Guidance has been showing the high temperatures to be in the 80s for
the majority of this period. For Friday the temperatures warm up a
bit to the low 90s, as the upper pattern transitions. The lows are
forecast to be in the 50-60s range. Wednesday through Friday PoPs
are in the 20-60% range during the each day`s afternoon/evening
hours. As for severe potential, there is no strong signal for
anything yet, but nothing can be ruled out since this is about 5-7
days out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have ended across the area for
tonight. May have a period of low clouds and patchy fog impact
KMCK towards 12z with the low clouds potentially not lifting
until 16-17z. KGLD is expected to stay VFR however. Saturday
afternoon and evening widely scattered thunderstorms will
develop along a dry line from southwest Nebraska through central
Kansas, potentially impacting KMCK. The storms may produce
strong outflow with gusty winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA/Holdren
AVIATION...024