478
FXUS63 KGLD 100605
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1205 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Air temperatures nearing 100-105 are forecast through Tuesday.
  Heat indices may approach 105 along and east of Highway 83 in
  Kansas.

- Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for portions of the area
  through 3am MT.

- Patchy fog and perhaps dense fog again possible.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1204 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Dundy and Yuma county has been removed from the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch as the threat for severe weather has
decreased.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Bulk of the surface high pressure resides over south of the CWA and
further into the southern Plains. This sets the stage for a
shortwave this evening to bring showers and storms to the northern
portion of the CWA. Damaging winds are the primary hazard as some
gusts around 70 mph are possible, especially if any cold
pooling can develop. Wind shear is also forecast to be around
30-35 knots which could support some brief supercell structures
resulting in the potential for hail around half dollar size,
currently thinking across Yuma, Dundy and Cheyenne (KS) but
think this threat will be fairly short lived as guidance shows
straight line hodographs which would support splitting cells
which would limit the hail threat as hail may not be able to to
remain aloft for too long. A

Forecast soundings also show a deep dry layer in the soundings which
also suggests that wind will be the main issue as well and should
help alleviate any potential flooding issues. There is some signal
for some redevelopment and semi slow movements with corfidi
upshear and downshear vector around 20 knots so if training
could occur then I can`t rule out an isolated instance of
flooding. Continuing to watch the potential for this across Red
Willow, Norton, Decatur and Graham counties which are along the
nose of the low level jet. If rainfall is less than in coverage
or has completely ended around 09Z then the threat for dense
fog again returns tonight as a strong signal is seen with very
high surface to 1km mixing ratio differences.

Monday, our surface high gets shunted a little further south than
today which should help keep temperatures a tad cooler with highs in
the upper 90s to low 100s. I do still have some concern for cloud
cover and perhaps some redevelopment of showers and weak storms
through the day tomorrow which would keep temperatures another
5-10 degrees lower than currently forecast. I don`t have the
confidence to go all in on that scenario for the forecast but
is in the realm of possibility. Winds for the day are forecast
to be mainly easterly at 10-20 mph with the strongest across
eastern portions of the forecast area. Further west some rogue
gusts up to 20 mph are possible during the mid to late afternoon
hours if mixing is deep enough.

During the afternoon another shortwave is forecast to move off of
the Rockies and onto the Plains bring another potential of
showers and storms mainly to eastern Colorado and far northwest
Kansas. Humidity is forecast to be a little bit higher than
previous days with mid teen to mid 20s across eastern Colorado
and extreme northwest Kansas but there could still be a dry
lighting threat and isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph possible
with storms. During the evening the low level jet is forecast to
increase and again and may aid in the eastward propagation of
storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

***Tuesday***

A flattened ridge at 500-mb is favored to be in place overhead
Tuesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded in the ridge favors a
low developing at the surface across the forecast area. Surface
winds are expected to be light as the low only undergoes weak to
modest deepening and centers itself over the County Warning Area
(CWA). Hot conditions look to continue under this setup, with highs
currently forecast in the upper 90s to mid 100s. Confidence in a
Heat Advisory being needed Tuesday continues to rise, currently
around 40%. Additionally, dry conditions are forecast as light
westerly to southwesterly surface flow continues to bring in dry
air, and temperatures rise through the afternoon. Relative
humidities are forecast as low as the upper teens across Eastern
Colorado Tuesday afternoon. However, the risk for critical fire
weather conditions is low due to the weaker surface winds.
Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is less than 5%.
However, it should be noted that there is a small chance (20%
chance or less) for showers during the evening hours Tuesday,
particularly in West-Central Kansas and East-Central Colorado.
NAMNST model soundings for 00z Tuesday show inverted-V profiles
up to around 3 km, which may suggest the potential for dry
lightning with these storms. This could serve as an additional
form of fire starts.


***Wednesday/Thursday***

GEFS and EC ensemble guidance are in support of upper-level ridging
remaining overhead through Thursday, as troughing builds in across
the Western United States. The surface low from Tuesday looks to
remain approximately stationary over the area Wednesday and
Thursday. Easterly/northeasterly surface flow in Southern Nebraska
ahead of southerly flow from the Gulf of America would support
moisture returning to the area, in addition to temperatures
beginning to cool. Highs are forecast in the 90s on Wednesday, and
the upper 70s to upper 80s on Thursday. Additionally, LREF guidance
shows a 75% chance or higher both Wednesday and Thursday for
dewpoints greater than 60 F, most particularly across portions of
Red Willow County in Southwest Nebraska, and Decatur and Graham
Counties in Northwest Kansas. Thunderstorm activity appears more
probable across the area as well. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance
shows probabilities in the 60-80% range across Southwest Nebraska
and Northern Yuma County in Colorado for greater than 0.1 inches of
rain Wednesday. These probabilities extend into Northwest Kansas and
East-Central Colorado on Thursday. LREF guidance also shows
that this activity will be in association with a 30-50% chance
for surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) greater
than 1000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are in the forecast both days, but
the risk of them becoming severe is low at this time, as GFS
and EC model soundings show less than 30 kts of sfc-500mb
vertical shear both days. However, it is important to note that
hotter conditions on Wednesday may promote microburst conditions
with thunderstorms, which could be associated with 60-70 mph
winds. Even so, confidence in severe weather occurring is about
5% each Wednesday and Thursday.


***Friday-Sunday***

Deterministic guidance diverges a bit by Friday, though ensembles
continue to show troughing off to the west alongside ridging
overhead. As such, conditions similar to that of Wednesday and
Thursday are forecast, though there is some uncertainty regarding
whether storms will be severe or not. Still, NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance shows the highest probabilities for greater than 0.1 inches
of rain across Eastern Colorado (60-75% through Saturday). As for
temperatures, highs in the 70s and 80s are forecast to continue
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Storms and outflow from storms are forecast to impact portions
of the area tonight. Tracking an outflow which should impact GLD
at the start of this period. MCK has storms developing around
the terminal currently and has the favored threat for strong to
damaging winds through around 08Z. Have concerns for fog
developing behind the rainfall as winds weaken again and with a
freshly saturated boundary layer. As has been the case over the
past week with high dew points in place would not be surprised
if fog and stratus does develop again so have gone a bit
aggressive with ceilings for both and visibilities at MCK. Winds
are forecast to to become southeasterly around 10-15 knots
through the day Monday. Another potential for storms is possible
for GLD Monday afternoon and evening but confidence is to low
to include in this TAF at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg