612
FXUS63 KGLD 301704
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1104 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog will impact areas of northwest Kansas and southwest
  Nebraska through about mid morning.

- The Flood Watch continues through the day today. Heaviest
  rainfall amounts today will generally be south of Interstate
  70 in Kansas and east of Highway 25 in Kansas and Nebraska.
  Flash flooding will be possible in those areas with 3-hour
  rainfall amounts of 1-3" possible through early this evening.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday
  afternoon and early evening. Wind gusts to 60 mph, hail around
  an inch, and maybe a few tornadoes are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper low will traverse the Four Corners overnight, move into
New Mexico and southeast Colorado this afternoon, western Kansas
tonight, and then continue east across Kansas on Thursday. The
track might be a slightly slower and further south than
previous model runs. Associated surface low will deepen in
southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas through the day today,
resulting in northeast winds across the Tri State area, gusting
up to 20-25 kts by the afternoon. Rain shield will move north
and approach Interstate 70 by 12z this morning and the Nebraska
border by around 18z. In the afternoon, precipitation becomes
more showery with scattered thunderstorms. REFS mean SBCAPE
shows less than 500 j/kg along with 35 kts of 0-6 km shear. The
decrease in instability has lowered confidence somewhat in the
severe threat. Nonetheless, with the decent shear, and increase
in 0-3 km helicity with the upper low overhead, cannot
completely rule out a low-topped supercell in this environment,
similar to what occurred earlier today in southwest Kansas.
Primary hazards will be strong to damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a few brief tornadoes through early this evening. On the
precipitation side, CAMs show heaviest rainfall amounts
generally south of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25 through
about 00z. HREF probability matched means for 3-hr QPF of
greater than 1" and greater than 3" shows highest probabilities
(around 50% for 1" and 10% for 3") south of Interstate 70 in
Kansas by around 18z, moving into the area east of Highway 25 in
Kansas and Nebraska by around 21z this afternoon, and then
moving off to the east this evening. Those are the areas with
the greatest potential for flash flooding today. For the rest
of Wednesday night, precipation rates show a weakening trend
with mainly light rain showers. Another area of heavy rain will
skirt the area to the south overnight and into Thursday
morning and could potentially impact the area along Highway 96,
before the whole system begins to wind down Thursday afternoon
as it moves into eastern Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Synoptically, as the previous day`s system moves out of the County
Warning Area (CWA), our upper level flow will largely remain from
the west to northwest though Tuesday. During this period, the jet
stream remains to the north near the US/Canada border throughout
the weekend. Over the Four Corner region, a weak upper level
ridge is likely to set up starting Friday morning and lingering
through late next week. There is some uncertainty in the upper
level pattern for Tuesday. Guidance currently indicated either a
weak shortwave or an upper level trough moving through the
area. Currently, the Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is
currently forecast at 5-10%, however the shortwave could
increase precipitation chances depending on its strength.

Overall, temperatures for the weekend into early next week look to
stay under 80 degrees until around Tuesday. Friday looks to be the
coolest day, with highs in the 60s. By Monday and Tuesday, highs
creep back into the low to mid 80s for the majority of the Tri-State
area. Precipitation chances for the weekend and early work week
remain low each day, with PoPs currently around 5-10%. Both the NBM
and LREF ensemble means show less than 500 J/kg of CAPE daily.
However, as noted previously, the passing shortwave on Tuesday could
bring a slight bump in PoPs.

Friday through Sunday afternoon, sustained winds and gusts are
forecast to remain mostly below 25 mph. Starting Sunday
afternoon/evening winds should begin to transition to come from the
south for the remainder of the long term period. Monday is currently
forecast to be the windiest day of the period as 850 mb jet
develops. While guidance disagrees on the exact location of area
of the highest gusts, which could be in the range of 30-45 mph.
Currently the NBM favors the Colorado counties as well as areas
north of I-70 and west of HWY 83 for the highest gusts. Whereas
the LREF favors the higher gusts to be over the majority of the
CWA. Currently Fire Weather concerns remain fairly low due to
the Relative Humidity values staying above 30% and soil moisture
likely remaining fairly saturated from the recent
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 AM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... IFR/MVFR conditions are forecast through the
entire period. Conditions have been varying and are expected to
continue varying with ceilings between 400-2000ft and visibility
between 2-8SM. Rain continues to move in from the south and may
linger at both sites through much of the period. There may be
intermittent breaks, but the event is not forecast to end until
close to 15-18Z tomorrow. Keep an eye out for a few
thunderstorms, mainly during the 21-08Z time frame. There may
be a few periods of VFR conditions and no rain/storms, but keep
an eye on the surrounding area as those conditions may be
fleeting.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-
     027>029-041-042.
CO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for COZ090>092.
NE...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...KAK