206
FXUS63 KGLD 010643
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1243 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Low chances around 10-30% each day for a few isolated storms
  through much of the work week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the
  week, but overall severe risk will be low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Through Thursday, the pattern doesn`t change much over the area. An
upper ridge is forecast to be in place over much of the Plains with
a trough over the Northwest Coast. With the ridge center forecast to
be just slightly east of the area, we should maintain
southwesterly/westerly flow through the period. This should bring a
few high clouds through during the daytime hours, with sunny skies
otherwise. The combination of the upper ridge and generally sunny
skies is forecast to keep temperatures on the warm side. Highs each
day are forecast to be in the 90s for most of the area, with 100s
possible east of Highway 83 (closer to the ridge axis). This pattern
is also forecast to keep broad low pressure over the area, with the
center in the Northern Plains. This is forecast to keep winds light
around 10 mph and from the south through the period.

In regards to storms, the chances and coverage are forecast to be a
bit lower. This looks to be due to the upper forcing being further
west of the area and slightly drier low levels in the west where
storms would likely develop and try to move in from. That all being
said, today looks to have the best chances for storms as the lower
levels are currently forecast to be a bit more moist, especially
with the early morning storms. It also looks like a convergence zone
may set up in the northern half of the area within the low and help
spark a few storms. As a whole, both instability (MUCAPE around 1000-
2000 J/kg) and 0-6km shear (20-30kts) are forecast to be on the weak
side which would favor sub-severe pulse storms. There may be one
storms that could sustain and potentially produce either a wind gust
to 60 mph or large hail around an inch, but the overall chance is
less than 5%. The chance for storms as a whole today is 15-30%.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Friday through Monday, the upper level ridge continues to be
persistent over the Southern United States with some amplification
towards the north over the weekend before stalling again. A strong
low pressure over the Pacific Northwest coast may allow some small
embedded shortwave troughs to pass through as well as southwesterly
flow from Baja California. This is forecast to bring in chances for
showers and warmer temperatures in the beginning of the period.
Diurnal heating looks to be the main driving force for these
showers. Friday afternoon, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) has
15% chance for showers over the northwestern and 20% chance over the
eastern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). There is high
confidence (70%) that it will be sub-severe as there are very low
values of CAPE and an unfavorable wind shear profile.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for rain will be low
as the upper level ridge starts to amplify to the north. PoPs have a
chance for showers at 15% in the northern half and 10% in southern
half of the CWA.

Temperatures will start out in the mid to upper 90s and are expected
to decrease towards the low 90s by Monday. However, there is low
confidence (30%) that temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to low
90s as NBM 75th to 25th percentile spread starts to increase with a
5 degree difference and could potentially keep temperatures into the
upper 90s. Uncertainty grows due to the possible showers later in
the weekend and Monday could lean to the cooler side. Heat index
values may reach into the 100s on Sunday if highs reach into the
upper 90s as moisture is being fed from both the southeast and
southwest with dew points being in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

For KGLD, weak storms and showers are forecast to move into the
terminal at the beginning of the TAF period causing MVFR conditions.
Winds are forecast to stay from the south at 7-15 kts, with
occasional gusts 25-30 kts if a storm moves over the terminal. In
the late morning expect VFR conditions lasting throughout the day.
Winds are forecast to stay mainly from the south and under 12 kts,
with an occasional gust up to 25 kts. There is a low chance of
another round of storms Tuesday afternoon.


For KMCK, low confidence in the showers/storms from the south to
make it to the terminal this morning, opted to do a PROB30 for light
rain and lower ceilings causing MVFR conditions. Winds will largely
remain from the south and under 12 kts for most of the day, along
with VFR conditions. There is a low chance of another round of
storms Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...024/Moeller
AVIATION...Holdren