032
FXUS63 KGLD 171121
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
521 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog is forecast for most of the area this morning, including
  some dense patches. Cooler today with highs generally in the
  70s.

- Temperatures return to the 90s Friday, continually warming
  into next week as temperatures may reach the low 100s by
  Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and storms continue daily into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Current observations show showers and storms pushing off to the east
as an area of surface high pressure continues to move in from the
north. Shower and storm chances should end before sunrise, but the
light easterly winds combined with moist air over the area is
forecast to keep cloud cover over the area. Fog should also begin to
develop as the morning goes on. There could be patches of dense fog,
but the current low level cloud deck might keep us just insulated
enough that the near surface air can`t fully saturate. Still,
wouldn`t be surprised if most of the area had 1-4 mile visibility in
fog.

During the daytime hours, the fog should slowly burn off as some sun
pokes through the clouds and we heat up a bit. Temperatures are
forecast to not warm too much as the slightly colder air mass
combined with the cloud cover should help keep us in the 70s. Those
who see the cloud cover break apart could warm to around 80. Winds
should slowly shift to the southeast as the high pushes through the
area, generally around 10-15 mph. Though with low pressure trying to
build along the Front Range again, speeds could be closer to 20 mph
for counties along the Colorado border.

This evening and into tonight, there might be a few storms that move
from the Front Range into Eastern Colorado, but chances are only
around 20% with the high pressure lingering in/near the area. Most
of the area is forecast to remain cloud covered and could see some
patches of fog again. However, with the lower pressure developing
along the Front Range, some drier air may be able to push in form
the west and allow for some clearing skies, again for those counties
along the Colorado border. With this, lows in the west could drop
into the 50s, while the rest of the area is in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure begins to develop across the southeast portion of the
CONUS as longwave troughing begins to redevelop across the west.
Moisture remains in place as well which continues to suggest that
daily chances for showers and storms remain possible for the area.
For Friday some stronger storms may be possible as we do have some
support from a weak 700mb wave along and east of Highway 25 for some
strong to perhaps severe storms. At this time the favored day for
severe weather looks to be on Saturday as a more potent wave looks
to move off of the Rockies. Moisture will again be on the increase
as easterly flow returns. Discrepancies still lie with the
amount CAPE and wind shear available but there is potential for
a possible more impactful day if everything can align. ECMWF
ensemble members also do show a decent swath of rainfall along
and north of I-70 during that timeframe which is further
increasing my confidence in this occurring. A semi stagnate
pattern continues into Sunday as well with another threat for
showers and storms during the afternoon hours.

A pattern chance then finally begins to present itself to start the
new week as the surface high across the south expands into the
central Plains sending the jet stream further to the north. This
appears to bring an end to the chances for showers and storms with
the caveat of if the high pressure sets up further east then still
may have some potential for some monsoonal disturbances to
impact western portions of the area.

A gradual warming trend is forecast to occur throughout the extended
period with the hottest being Monday through the end of the period
with highs in the in the upper 90s to low 100s. May need to keep an
eye on some potential heat products as moisture does look to remain
in place with some heat indices having the potential to reach 105
across eastern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM MDT Thu Jul 17 2025

For KGLD...VLIFR conditions are expected to persist through
most of the morning hours. Moisture should remain in place
through the morning, with little sunshine to help burn it off
until after 18Z. As for the fog, it will likely be at its worst
for the first two to three hours of the period, and then
gradually improve. Once conditions do improve, they are
forecast to remain VFR as drier air is forecast to push in from
the west. There is a chance that the low clouds set up before
the drier air pushes in, mainly between 00-06Z.

For KMCK...Ceilings around 1500-2500 are forecast to persist
most of the morning, until temperatures warm enough and the sun
pokes out to help lift ceilings. Fog is possible for the first 3
hours, but dewpoint depressions around 4-5 degrees have so far
inhibited fog development. There could be a brief break in the
low ceilings from around 21-03Z. After 03Z, the low clouds are
forecast to return with the low level moisture remaining in
place. Currently, the forecast doesn`t bring in the drier air
until tomorrow.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...KAK