249
FXUS63 KGLD 290014
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
614 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A severe storm cannot be ruled out late this afternoon and
  evening, mainly near the CO-KS-NE border ~6-11 pm MDT.
  Localized wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main threat. Lower
  severe weather potential compared to previous days. Low
  confidence in thunderstorm coverage and eastern extent.

- Low chances for severe weather continue through the weekend.
  Wind gusts of 60-70 mph and hail around an inch are the main
  hazards.

- Warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs in the
  upper 90`s to lower 100`s on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current observations show a large amplitude ridge over much of the
Rockies and High Plains. With this, we have clear skies across much
of the area. This should allow temperatures to warm into the mid 90s
by the afternoon hours. Low pressure continues to develop in the
Northern Plains, keeping winds a bit on the breezy side with speeds
around 15-25 mph and gusts to 35 mph. This should continue until the
inversion sets up during the early evening hours.

Speaking of the evening hours, a few showers and storms are forecast
to develop along the Front Range in the upper northwesterly flow and
push east towards the area. Dry air near the surface and the upper
level subsidence are both forecast to keep storm intensity and
coverage on the low side. However, a developing 850mb jet may be
able to keep storms going all the way through the area during the
night. Currently this has about a 25% chance of occurring. In regards
to severe weather, the best chance will be with early storms around
the Tri-State border area and Eastern Colorado. Wind gusts up to 65-
70 mph look to be the threat, maybe hail to an inch if a storm is
really robust. The severe threat should end fairly quickly, even if
storms persist through the area. Either way, the increased cloud
cover and dewpoints in the 60s are forecast to keep lows in the 70s
for those east of Highway 83. The western portions of the area
should cool into the 60s as long as the cloud cover clears.

Tomorrow, the ridge is forecast to slide east and have the ridge
axis move over the area. With this and continued southerly flow,
temperatures are forecast to reach the 100s. Heat index values may
creep to near the mid 100s for locales east of Highway 83. I only
have 40% confidence in this being achieved, so elected not to issue
a Heat Advisory at this time. The low pressure center should deepen
and shift more south into the area. As this happens, winds should
lighten to around 5-10 mph and shift to be more from the west/north.
This is a good thing as relative humidity is forecast to drop into
the teens with the temperatures in the 100s. Henceforth, critical
fire weather conditions are not forecast at this time. Later
afternoon and evening storms will be possible again as we transition
to more of a southwesterly upper pattern. This should bring upper
level moisture and maybe a shortwave trough over the area and help
spark storms in the west again. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and maybe
large hail around an inch are potential hazards, but remain low
chance.

Sunday, the upper ridge axis is forecast to shift a bit to the east.
This should allow temperatures west of Highway 83 to be a bit cooler
in the 90s. Those east of Highway 83 are likely to reach the 100s
again. Winds are forecast to remain light around 5-10 mph with the
low pressure remaining over the area. Showers and storms should form
west of the area and push east again. The coverage may be a bit
greater with the upper ridge influence and subsidence weakening. The
severe threat remains on the low side, but we may be able to see a
few wind gusts of 60-70 mph and hail around an inch.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent with
unseasonably hot temperatures and evening storm chances due to
our region being in a persistent southwest upper-level flow.
Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast in the 80s
to upper 90s. Wednesday through Friday, highs are currently
forecast in the high 90s with LREF ensemble members showing at
least a 20% chance of high exceeding 100 degrees F for our
Kansas and Nebraska counties.

Our persistent southwest upper-level flow will send several embedded
shortwaves, bringing precipitation chances each evening Monday
through Friday. Monday is looking to be out best chance for
precipitation with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from 30-60%,
increasing from east to west. Models are showing a marginally
unstable environment with less than 1000 J/Kg of CAPE, around 30
knots of shear and mid-low level lapse rates less than 7 C/km.
Model soundings are showing precipitable water (PWAT) values
greater than 1 inch and overall skinny CAPE profiles, so heavy
rainfall and localized flooding are possible with severe or sub-
severe storms. Small hail and strong winds could be a concern
with stronger storms if they are able to form. Tuesday onward,
evening PoPs are around 20% for the area with low confidence in
severe weather occurring.

Despite unseasonably hot temperatures, fire weather concerns are
minimal through the long term period. Relative humidity (RH) values
are forecast above 20% for the CWA. Winds will remain overall light
with gusts maxing out around 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected at both sites.
Winds are forecast to remain from the south at 10-15 kts, with
the occasional gusts of 25-30 kts through 04Z. There remains a
20-30% chance for storms tonight at both terminals between 00Z
and 04Z. Storms are still possible from 04-06Z, however
confidence is lower. Gusty winds of 40-55 kts are the primary
hazard if a storm affects the Terminal Area. Both terminals
should anticipate low level wind shear beginning around 04Z and
lasting until around 11-12Z. Winds will begin to subside and
become variable in the morning.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Holdren