349
FXUS63 KGLD 122023
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Relatively breezy conditions expected through mid-week.

- Monday will be hot ahead of a cold front that brings much
  cooler conditions for Tuesday-Wednesday. Portions of the area
  may see lows dip into the upper 40s Wednesday morning.

- Scattered strong storms may develop along this front Monday
  evening. Gusty winds would be the primary threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A pleasant, but cloudy day is in store for the Tri-State area today
as stratus and higher level clouds try to clear out during the
afternoon hours. This will keep temperatures on the cooler side
today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The upper level nearly
zonal flow pattern is expected to continue into Sunday as an upper
level low moves towards the Hudson Bay in Canada and high pressure
moves over the Southern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure over
the Tri-State area will move eastward through the overnight hours
tonight as a surface trough extends south over the High Plains from
an area of low pressure over Wyoming. GFS, ECMWF, NAM, and RAP
guidance are all favoring the zonal pattern evolving as a weak omega
block occurs with a ridge axis moving over the western half of the
Great Plains Sunday. On Monday, the Tri-State area should be under
southwest flow aloft as the next upper level low moves along the
Canadian border with Eastern Montana and North Dakota towards Lake
Manitoba. This will bring our next cold front to the area early next
week.

With the stratus slowly clearing out as of 12:30 PM MT, the
environment should be quite stable this afternoon and evening due to
limited diurnal heating. So far with the showers and storms
northeast of the County Warning Area (CWA), the RAP and NAMnest our
handling it the best. Both models are showing a signal for perhaps a
few isolated showers to develop during the late afternoon to early
evening hours. Looking at soundings, the mid-layer of the atmosphere
has quite a bit of dry air, so even the showers will struggle to
form if this holds true. With this indication of some low-level
moisture lingering over the area tonight and possibly some early
morning shower/storm activity in Central Kansas it is possible we
see stratus once again develop in the early morning hours Sunday
primarily east of the Colorado border. Confidence is around 40-60%
for stratus development at this time. Should the stratus develop, it
should burn off around mid-day Sunday from west to east.

Winds are expected to be light around 5-15 mph this evening into
Sunday morning out of the east to southeast. Sunday afternoon winds
will begin to pick up with southeast winds of 20-25 mph and gusts to
45 mph possible over the northwest portion of the area once the
cloud cover clears out. The strongest winds are currently expected
to occur over Eastern Colorado. The breezy winds could linger into
Monday with gusts decreasing to 35-40 mph Sunday evening. Based on
the 12Z guidance, once the cold front moves in winds should start to
decrease.

This front will also bring our next rain/storm chances (50-80%)
Monday afternoon/evening if the frontal passage timing holds. Model
soundings continue to favor an inverted-V profile with 1,500-2,500
J/kg of Surface and Mixed-Layer CAPE. With favorable lapse rates and
shear of 35-50 kts, we could see large hail and damaging winds gusts
as the primary concern. Looking at 12Z CAMs, we could see two areas
for initiation impact the CWA. The first could be over portions of
Western Kansas possibly along the front and another post-frontal
over Eastern Colorado.

Despite the cooler weather today, temperatures are expected to warm
back up the next few days. Overnight lows tonight will be in the mid
50s to lower 60s. With stratus expected to clear out faster tomorrow
compared to today, we could see highs range from the 80s to the
lower 90s with the cooler temperatures over the northeast corner and
warmest over the southwest portions of the area. Sunday night lows
could fall into the 60s across the area. Monday looks to be quite
warm with highs in the 90s across the area and maybe potential
for temperatures close to 100 degrees in the southeast corner of
the area. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected
Monday despite the hot, breezy conditions given relative
humidity values are expected to be above 20% across the CWA.
Overnight lows Monday could fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Tuesday morning, ensembles show three 500-mb features that drive
weather across the forecast area: a high across the Southeastern
United States, a trough across the Western United States, and broad
troughing across portions of Southeast Canada. A shortwave lifting
across the Midwest would be associated with northeasterly surface
flow across the forecast area, setting the stage for cooler
conditions through the duration of the long term period. Surface
highs Tuesday are currently forecast in the mid to upper 70s, but
lower percentiles of the NBM show that highs as low as the mid to
upper 60s can`t be ruled out. Temperatures are favored to remain
lower than recent weeks Wednesday and Thursday even though southerly
flow would generally be favored between the high across the
southeast and trough across the Western United States. This would be
caused by continued easterly to northeasterly surface flow from a
strong surface high to the northeast of the forecast region, and
potential cloud cover and precipitation from convergence across
Kansas. Currently, surface highs are forecast in the mid 70s to
lower 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures could reach a little
higher than the current forecast depending on the northerly extent
of the southerly flow, and whether any solar heating will be allowed
to develop.

As mentioned before, precipitation is favored to occur Tuesday
through Thursday. Tuesday, all areas in the forecast area have at
least a 25% chance or greater of receiving more than 0.1 inches of
rain according to NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance, with areas along
and east of a line from Oberlin, KS to Tribune, KS showing a 50-75%
chance. Most of this precipitation is expected to be along the cold
front in the area, and is not favored to be convective in
nature, as LREF guidance shows an 80% chance or higher across
the forecast region that surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric
instability) will remain below 1000 J/kg. Convergence across
Kansas from southerly flow meeting easterly flow would continue
to support precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. NBM 24 hr
guidance shows Wednesday to be the better day for precipitation,
with a 50-75% chance across nearly the entire forecast region
for greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Also, there may be a
better chance for convective activity Wednesday, as LREF
guidance shows a 40-45% chance of surface CAPE greater than 1000
J/kg between Kansas Highways 25 and 27. GFS and EC soundings
show sfc-6km shear between 20 and 35 kts, which would suggest
that most thunderstorms would be sub-severe, with perhaps a
storm or two that could produce winds up to 60 mph. Confidence
in severe storms occurring Wednesday is around 5% or less.
Precipitation is not favored to be convective Thursday, as
instability looks to decrease again.

The trough across the Western United States looks to be slowly
moving toward the forecast area during the duration of the long
term, though it is not entirely certain when the trough will move
in. Ensemble guidance mutes this feature by Friday morning.
Additionally, GFS and EC deterministics continue to show this wave
as a weaker one, which would indicate most of the uncertainty is in
association with the timing of the trough. As long as the trough
remains west of the forecast area, conditions similar to Tuesday
through Thursday would be more likely. However, conditions may cool
a little more once the wave moves over the region and northerly flow
reestablishes itself. NBM 25th percentile solutions and lower show
highs in the mid 70s or lower Friday and Saturday in association
with this trough moving overhead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected during the 18Z TAF period as
stratus creates lower ceilings over the KMCK and KGLD terminals.
At KGLD, current MVFR conditions will improve during the
afternoon hours as the stratus begins to clear out. KMCK is
expected to maintain VFR conditions for much of the period;
however, cloud cover will keep broken to overcast conditions
around through the mid-afternoon hours (~21-23Z). During the
overnight hours, most likely around 09Z, to ~18Z we could see a
return of lower ceilings due to stratus impact the Tri-State
area. Current thinking is stratus development would be similar
to today, with the best potential (~40-60% chance) of stratus
impacting KGLD and areas along I-70 corridor initially before
expanding towards the KMCK terminal around sunrise. Guidance is
favoring the stratus clearing from west to east during the late
morning to around mid-day hours Sunday.

Winds are expected to decrease over the next few hours as winds
become easterly at ~10 kts. Sporadic gusts of 15-20 kts will be
possible until ~19-20Z over KGLD until the wind shift occurs.
After sunset and through the remainder of the TAF period, winds
are expected to become southeasterly to southerly at 5-10 kts
over the terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KMK