863
FXUS63 KGLD 041913
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
113 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and hazy today with smoke moving through the area.

- Showers and storms are forecast to move through this evening
  from west to east. Low chances for a severe threat, but if it
  can occur, damaging wind gusts and large hail are the main
  threats.

- The weekend is forecast to be cooler with very low chances for
  showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Earlier this morning, stratus clouds were apparent on satellite
imagery, with dense fog observed across the forecast area. As
the morning progressed, the fog dissipated out, however smoke
infiltrating from the northwest continues to linger over the
area. Visible satellite imagery highlights this, with haze noted
in some observations. Decided to lower temperatures a bit to
account for the haze keeping highs below the NBM guidance, with
highs in the mid to upper 80s over the majority of the area,
with a few locations in the southern CWA reaching 90.

An upper level low continues over Ontario, Canada, with a
longwave trough extending down through the midwest CONUS,
placing the area in northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a
warm front extending from a surface low over North Dakota is
situated through central Nebraska down through western KS, and
has been slowly advecting eastward during the morning and early
afternoon hours. This is bringing drier air to the area, with
relative humidity in the 20-30% range so far (along/west of
Highway 25), forecast to drop into the upper teens to 20-30%
range. With winds only expected to get to 15-20mph this
afternoon, critical fire weather conditions continue to not be a
concern.

As the afternoon progresses into the evening, an upper level
shortwave trough associated with the upper low will push through
the Plains, with the surface low progged to move southeast over
Minnesota/Iowa. As a result, another associated cold front will
drag through the area, which will be the focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms this evening. Looking at the latest
CAMs, scattered showers and thunderstorms look to start pushing
eastward later this evening, generally after 6pm. The severe
threat is low, with limited instability and wind shear - however
forecast soundings do show an inverted-V sounding profile, with
DCAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. The likely scenario is for this
activity to remain sub-severe as it pushes through this evening,
however the worst-case scenario has an isolated severe wind gust
or two of 60-70mph (IF these storms can tap into more
instability). Additionally, these storms will be fairly
progressive with their movement, leading to insufficient
rainfall and very limited time for any hail to reach severe
limits.

Some lingering showers could persist into Friday, with this
activity pushing out any leftover haze from the smoke. Overnight
temperatures are forecast in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 113 PM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

We`ll finally see a cooldown behind the cold front on Friday,
with afternoon highs remaining in the 60s area-wide. It should
be noted that a 6 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentiles exists, with the NBM deterministic hovering at the
cooler outcome. If rain showers and cloud cover can stick
around through the afternoon, then this would be the more likely
scenario. However if precipitation clears out earlier than what
guidance is showing, highs could be several degrees higher,
potentially getting into the low 70s. Models do show another
shortwave trough pushing through on Friday, which would lead to
the more likely scenario of afternoon showers/cloud cover and
the cooler temperatures in the 60s.

This cooldown will be fairly shortlived however, with highs
climbing back up into the 70s over the weekend, and the 80s to
low 90s throughout next week as an upper level ridge over the
Rocky Mountain region raises mid-level heights. Despite the
building ridge, models hint at several embedded shortwaves
moving through the region, which could potentially bring daily
rain chances to the area. Currently, any chances remain below
10-20%, but as we get closer to this time period and confidence
in the overall pattern grows, we`ll get a better idea of what to
expect.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Some residual MVFR ceilings/visibilities can be observed at
KMCK, however visible satellite imagery shows it continuing to
improve, with VFR conditions expected around the start of the
TAF period. There`s some haze showing up on the observations as
as smoke infiltrates from the northwest. As the
afternoon/evening progresses, this will begin to affect both TAF
sites, with visibilities dropping down into the MVFR category
at ~5SM before improving once again after 06Z.

A cold front is progged to push through the area later this
evening, bringing additional chances for showers and
thunderstorms, primarily at KGLD. With limited confidence in the
coverage, kept this potential in a PROB30 group for now between
02Z-06Z. If a stronger storm can impact the terminal,
ceilings/visibilities could briefly deteriorate. Otherwise, the
frontal passage will bring an increase in winds, with gusts up
to 25-30kts expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Melto