397
FXUS63 KGLD 271910
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
110 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms continue through much of the
  week.

- Seasonable temperatures with highs in the 70s/80s are forecast
  through the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1211 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Today, the first trough axis of the northwestern low will be
sweeping over the region, leading to a line of enhanced vorticity
moving in from the south. We are also expecting southerly moist
advection to occur. These combined are expected to produce
precipitation across the CWA throughout the rest of the day. Severe
weather is not likely with this precipitation, but we cannot rule
out a rouge gust up to 60 MPH or hail up to 1 inch. This
precipitation is expected to increase in coverage throughout the
day, leading to a wide spread for high temperatures. In the
northeastern CWA, where precipitation may not reach, highs look to
be in the low to mid 80s. The southwestern CWA, where cloud cover
and precipitation are most expected, temperatures may not climb
above 70.

Tonight, the trough axis slowly moves over the CWA, allowing light
to moderate precipitation to persist throughout the night and
temperatures look to stay steady in the 50s. We are expecting low
stratus to move in and impact aviation customers. Patchy fog is also
possible tonight, which may briefly lead to visibility under a mile.

Tomorrow, the low will start lifting to the north as a ridge pushes
in from the south. This will keep vorticity over the CWA, promoting
additional precipitation throughout most of the day. Precipitation
is expected to gradually lift to the northeast in the afternoon and
evening hours. The mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures capped
in the 70s.

For more information about the precipitation totals, see the
hydrology section below.

Tomorrow night, the 500 mb ridge axis is expected to dominate the
CWA after 6Z Friday. This should end any lingering showers across
the area and may briefly lead to more clear skies. If this occurs,
patchy dense fog would likely occur across the CWA. Low temperatures
are expected to remain in the 50s, thanks to the additional
moisture.

Friday morning, another trough axis from the low over the western
CONUS will be pushing in over the Rockies. This will lead to a warm
front moving in from the southwest, and some additional light
precipitation chances. This looks to persist overnight, keeping off
and on precipitation into Friday night. Highs on Friday look to warm
to around 80, but this is subject to change depending on how strong
and fast the warm front is. Overnight temperatures look to remain
stable in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

A low that has been sitting over the Great Basin will finally begin
to lift to the north over the weekend. As this low lifts, upper-
level flow will turn more westerly, which will usher in drier air.
As a result of this, chances for showers or thunderstorms over the
weekend have decreased. Currently, chances look to range from 10-30%
but the caveat will be 30-40F temperature/dewpoint spreads. This
will likely limit the amount of moisture that will reach the surface
with any showers or storms that do develop. The development timing
for any showers and storms will likely be diurnally driven with peak
convection occurring during the afternoon/evening Saturday and
Sunday. The main concerns with any convection would be strong gusty
outflow winds which may be able to kick up some dust. Otherwise,
temperatures look to warm some for the weekend with highs getting
into the mid to possibly upper 80s in some locations.

The start of June sees an omega block like pattern persist across
the CONUS. However, models are showing this pattern gradually
breakdown through the week. Temperatures to start the week look to
remain around seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Warmer temperatures look to gradually return as a shift in the
weather pattern begins. The incoming weather pattern looks to be one
that will support warmer temperatures as a large ridge begins to
build across the central CONUS. Weak shortwaves may bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week. Confidence in the
intensity and coverage of these showers/storms is still low. At this
time, there does not seem to be much evidence for any large
disturbances or significant severe weather chances due to the
ridging over the central CONUS. That is subject to change but at
this moment nothing noteworthy looks to be on the horizon over the
next 3-7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1026 AM MDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR and worsening conditions are expected through the period
for KGLD and KMCK. KGLD looks to get the worst of it, with
ceilings bouncing around IFR and minimums tonight between 9-15Z.
Before that, occasional storms and showers are moving through
the region and look to periodically impact KGLD, and potentially
KMCK tonight. More widespread precipitation is expected to move
in during the evening and overnight hours. Patchy fog is also
possible. Conditions are forecast to slowing improve tomorrow
morning, but VFR conditions may not return until tomorrow night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1211 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

Starting Wednesday morning, a low pressure system will pass
over the western CWA moving north. This low is forecast to move
slowly, finally leaving the area Thursday night. During this time
widespread broken showers with embedded storms are expected across
the CWA. This will provide much needed precipitation to portions of
the CWA, focused mainly around Gove county. Precipitation totals
lower farther north, with the REFS 75th percentile only being around
0.2 inch of QPF along the U.S. 34 corridor. Locations south and west
of an area from Hill City, to Colby, to Tribune have a 30-50% chance
of seeing an inch of QPF by Friday morning.

There is an outside (<5%) chance that up to 3.5 inches of rain falls
by Friday morning in or near Gove county. This would occur is
multiple rounds of storms can train over the same location,
potentially leading to a flood threat. As it stands, there is a 25%
chance nuisance flooding will occur in the southeastern CWA by late
Thursday night, and only a 5% chance flash flooding occurs.

Additional light precipitation is possible throughout the day
Friday, but QPF looks to remain under 0.25 inch.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA