222
FXUS63 KGLD 192133
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
233 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thursday morning should see fog return to the area. Patches
  of freezing fog may lead to slick elevated surfaces.

- Widespread rainfall expected with an upcoming storm system on
  Thursday and Friday. Western portions of the area may have a
  rain/snow mix.

- Another storm system moving onto the Plains early next week.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 209 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

For the remainder of today, light winds with slowly clearing skies
are forecast as the pressure gradient weakens over the area.
Slightly drier air has moved in which is also leading to the
decrease in cloud cover.

Tonight, the lower pressure along the Front Range is forecast to
become more defined and shift southeast towards SE Colorado and SW
Kansas. As it does so, it will begin to shift the winds to out of
the northeast in the area. This will allow some low-level moisture
to pull back into the area with an upslope component. Fog should
begin to develop late in the evening as long as upper level cloud
cover doesn`t move in early from the upper low to the west and keep
temperatures warmer. The fog should start around Norton, Graham, Red
Willow, and Decatur counties before expanding west. The fog may not
be able to make it all the way to the Colorado border as the air is
drier and the winds may be a bit more northwesterly depending on how
fast/slow the surface low is. Temperatures should lower into the 30s
before the fog and cloud cover set in.

Tomorrow, the upper low is forecast to move slowly northeast while
also elongating a bit. This should cause the surface low to slowly
push east/north while just south of the area. With the upper low
bringing more mid-high level moisture while the surface low brings
in near surface moisture, rain should begin to develop. The rain
should start south of I-70, closer to the surface low, before
expanding north as more moisture wraps into the area. The forecast
cloud cover and fog prior to the rain forming are forecast to keep
instability low and reduce the risk for thunderstorms. Temperatures
will likely be capped in the 50s with winds around 10 mph due to the
low elongating.

Thursday evening and night is forecast to be the best time for
precipitation as the area remains on the northern side of the
surface low while the main bulk of moisture moves through the area.
This should lead to fairly widespread showers and storms initially.
As the night goes on, the low is likely to shift a bit north and
east as the upper low continues lifting northeast. This could push
the precipitation to favor north of I-70 as a dry slot tries to work
in from the south. Areas along the Colorado border will also have an
increased chance due to being to the western edge of the low where
some bands may form. As long as the cloud cover does not dissipate
in the area, it is unlikely that the area would see any frozen
precipitation as temperatures would remain in the upper 30s and 40s.
If the cloud cover breaks or the low moves quickly east (allowing
cooler air to push in), then some snowflakes may mix in counties
along the Colorado border. Accumulations would be fairly limited
given warm soil temperatures and air temperatures around freezing,
leading to low snow liquid ratios.

Friday, the upper low that had moved through is forecast to rejoin
the main flow to the north, while the surface low pushes slowly off
to the south and east. The low is forecast to move far enough away
that the main forcing should leave the area. However, the near
surface moisture is forecast to linger, likely leading to fog or
drizzle/light showers. Because of the lingering cloud cover and
precipitation, temperatures should be capped in the 40s. 50s are
possible if the moisture clears out faster than forecast. Winds
should remain around 10-15 mph.

Friday night, the area is forecast to have slight upper ridging
develop over the area while the low pressure system pulls farther
away from the area. This should bring an end to any precipitation,
though fog and cloud cover could linger most of the night, favoring
the eastern half of the area. For those who remain under cloud
cover, temperatures should linger in the 30s. The rest of the area
should cool into the 20s to low 30s.

Event rainfall totals for the area are forecast to be fairly varied
across the area as the wrap around banding will determine who gets
the higher amounts. Most of the area should see around 0.25-0.5"
from the system, while those close to the wrap around side and north
of I-70 are favored for 0.5-1.0". That being said, the banded nature
of the heavy precipitation means that anywhere in the area has at
least a small chance for the higher amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

This weekend, the upper pattern is forecast to look pretty similar
to what we are experiencing to end the work week. An upper low is
forecast to be over the Baja Peninsula on Saturday. This should
allow Saturday to have sunshine after any early fog and low cloud
cover clears. With some clearing skies, temperatures should warm
into the 50s and low 60s.

Going more into Sunday, ensembles are split on two scenarios for
how this upper low advances. The first is a fast and more southerly
scenario that advances the upper low through New Mexico and Texas
late Saturday and into Sunday. In this scenario, the area will
likely stay dry with slightly cooler temperatures as the main
surface low stays well south of the area with a small reinforcement
shot of cold air. Monday would also stay relatively dry and cool.
This scenario looks to be about a 30% possibility.

The second scenario has the upper low take a slower and similar
track to the one that ends the work week. In this scenario, Sunday
could see some sunshine before cloud cover overtakes the area. Fog
and rain would then move into the area and linger into Monday. Even
with a slower track compared to scenario 1, it is forecast to not be
enough to allow for full moisture recovery, which could lead to more
of a fog and drizzle event than a rain event. Accumulations
currently are forecast to be much lower due to the lower amount of
mid-level moisture available. Temperatures would likely stay in the
50s with little to no cold air advection. This scenario is more
likely and the currently forecast one, but we`ll see how this
evolves.

The mid part of the next week is forecast to be cool as a broader
trough moves in across the Plains. Precipitation chances look to be
tied to which scenario pans out as scenario 1 would likely leave the
area too dry, while scenario 2 could leave some moisture to work
with the surface cold front. Either way, keep an eye out for cooler
temperatures likely in the 30s/40s and a chance for some wintry
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Wed Nov 19 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast for the period. That
being said, keep an eye out for some fog and low ceilings around
the 09-15Z timeframe. While only a 10% chance due to drier air
forecast to move in near the surface, any fog that forms would
likely be dense with visibility around 1/4 of a mile. Ceilings
would likely be in the 200-600ft range in this scenario as well
so look for updates. Otherwise, winds near the surface should be
below 6-8 kts through the forecast period. The last thing of
interest is the possibility of rain showers developing around
16-18Z.

For KMCK... Ceilings around 1000-2000ft are forecast to linger
through about 19-20Z, before lifting and allowing VFR conditions
through 08-12Z. About that time, low level moisture is forecast
to move over the terminal. With this, fog with visibility around
1/4 to 3 SM is forecast along with ceilings below 1000ft.
Current confidence in this occurring is about 70%. Once any fog
and low ceilings lift near the end of the period, VFR conditions
should hold until rain moves in shortly after 18Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK