311
FXUS63 KGLD 130612
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1212 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small window for heightened fire danger this afternoon in
  Yuma and Kit Carson counties in Colorado, Cheyenne County in
  Kansas and Dundy county in Nebraska.

- Significantly cooler weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday
  with an increasing chance of precipitation Wed and Wed night.

- Threat for first frost of the season increasing Friday and
  Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Through Tue night: An upper level low currently digging SSE
from Oregon into northern Nevada will briefly stall over NV
tonight, then drift east toward the 4-Corners Tue-Tue night. 12Z
guidance suggests that the upper low will then gradually lift
ENE-NE across central and northeast Colorado Wed-Wed night,
steadily deamplifying/weakening along the way. A tightening
height gradient between the eastward advancing upper low and a
pronounced ridge over the Gulf Coast and Lower MS River Valley
will lead to the development of a strong southwesterly upper
level jet in the lee of the Rockies. In the lower levels, modest
(1015-1020 mb) surface high pressure assoc/w confluent flow
aloft over the Dakotas will extend southward into the Central
Plains late tonight, the leading edge of which will manifest as
a NE-ENE wind shift and effective cold frontal passage Tuesday
morning. Meanwhile, strengthening SW flow aloft will facilitate
the development of a broad cyclone in the lee of the central-
southern Rockies. Guidance suggests that the effective cold
front will progress southward to the I-70 corridor in northwest
KS by late morning (15-18Z Tue) and that a broad, west-east
elongated cyclone will develop along a pronounced thermal
gradient /baroclinic zone south of I-70, over southeast CO and
southwest- central KS.

Challenging temperature forecast. While the southern extent of
the front continues to vary from model-to-model and run-to-run,
virtually all guidance indicates that the front will progress at
least as far south as the I-70 corridor. Whether or not (and if
so, to what extent) the front progresses even further south may
largely be a function of cloud cover / differential heating.
Pervasive and persistent stratus north of the front could limit
airmass modification during the afternoon, reinforcing the
surface high, tightening the MSLP gradient and driving the
cooler airmass further south. Low confidence in high
temperatures, which could range anywhere from the 50`s to the
70`s, depending on cloud cover and the southern extent of the
front. Virtually all guidance continues to indicate that rich
low-level moisture and substantive forcing (strong low-level
convergence, frontogenesis) will be confined to the eastern
periphery of the cyclone, over central and eastern KS.. and
simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of
the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to indicate that convective
development will be confined south and east of the Goodland CWA.
Aside from a small (~10%) chance for a brief shower in
Gove/Graham counties during the late morning, precipitation is
not expected.

Wed-Wed night: Expect an increasing potential for elevated
showers/storms Wed afternoon into Wed night as the deamplifying
upper low progresses ENE-NE from the 4-Corners to northeast CO.
Modest northerly low-level flow and pervasive cloud cover will
foster well below average temperatures and an atypically small
diurnal temperature range. Calendar day highs for Wed could
occur at midnight and daytime temperatures could struggle to
exceed the 40`s and lower 50`s, especially if elevated showers
develop during the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Ensemble guidance is quite confident on upper-level troughing
Thursday to start the four-day forecast period, placing us in
strong southwest flow aloft through Friday morning. A decent jet
streak is anticipated to present over our County Warning Area
(CWA) on the lee side of the Rossby wave. Furthermore, a surface
low southeast of the region should continue moving east across
the Central Plains. The pattern likely changes over the course
of the day Friday as the trough propagates eastward, bringing us
into zonal westerly flow. Moving forward, weak ridging starts
to develop Saturday shifting 300- 500mb flow to the northwest.
Said ridge should move to the east fairly quickly Sunday,
placing the Tri-State area right back in southwest flowing
heading into next week. Other than Thursday (10- 25%),
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) is expected to be very low
(<5%) through next weekend. There is low chance (25%) for
overnight temperatures at or below freezing Friday night.
Therefore, frost will be possible.

Overall, below average temperatures are likely as the system
aloft ushers in cool/dry air from the northwest. High
temperatures upper 50s into the low 60s will be likely Thursday
and Friday. This will not last as the shift to southwesterly
flow kicks off a warming trend that raises high temps into the
mid/upper 60s Saturday as well as mid to upper 70s Sunday. As
mentioned in the above section, low confidence (20-30%) exists
of temperatures falling below freezing in some locations
throughout the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s will also be possible Thursday night
in some areas near or west of K-27.

Fire weather could be a concern late next week into the
weekend, so trends regarding surface winds and relative humidity
(RH) will need to be monitored. RH is forecasted to decrease
into the upper teens Saturday and Sunday in the eastern Colorado
counties. RH values should generally range around 20-40% during
the day elsewhere in the CWA. Winds originally come on strong
Thursday at 20-35 mph, gusting 30-50 mph from the north. Fridays
winds likely will be quite a bit weaker at 10-20 mph, also from
the north, gusting up to 30 mph. Saturday and Sunday will be
the days to keep a close eye on for potential fire weather.
Saturday`s winds will vary around the region 15-25 mph from the
south and gusting 20-35 mph. To close out the weekend, Sunday`s
winds should be quite light (5-10 mph) shifting from the
southwest to southeast and gusting up to 15 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

KGLD: VFR conditions are currently in place at KGLD, though stratus
is moving southward out of Nebraska, and is expected to drop
conditions to IFR by 09Z. Guidance has also shown a risk for
patchy fog developing for KGLD between 11 and 15Z, however the
rapidly advancing stratus suggests that fog may be prevented
from forming. If fog can form, visibilities can drop below a
mile. Ceilings are expected to begin lifting a few hours after
sunrise, with conditions returning to VFR during the early to
mid-afternoon on the 13th. Modest and occasionally gusty winds
will remain out of the north to northeast throughout the TAF
period.

KMCK: MVFR conditions are expected at KMCK as stratus is beginning
to set in. HREF guidance shows about a 25% chance that ceilings may
drop into the IFR category at KMCK, though observations show IFR
ceilings remaining to the west of the airport. It is unclear exactly
when ceilings will begin to lift, though VFR conditions are expected
to return sometime during the mid-afternoon on the 13th. Winds are
expected to be out of the northeast throughout the TAF period, with
some gusts around 20 kts expected during the first half of the
period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Davis