901
FXUS63 KGLD 161124
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
524 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Can`t completely rule out some storm redevelopment overnight
  but confidence in that is waning.

- Strong to severe storms remain forecast Monday and Tuesday.
  Tuesday continues to look like a more widespread event.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  upcoming weekend, including temperature near 105, which could
  break records.

- Critical fire weather potential increases later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1246 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Storms are again struggling this evening as they may have been
undercut from outflow from an ongoing cluster of storms across
western Nebraska. Additional cells trying to form along outflow from
the decaying cluster. This along with an increasing low level jet
and isentropic ascent in the 305K level through 09Z does continue to
make me think that redevelopment along the southern periphery
is a possibility so will maintain 15-24% mention of storms in
the forecast. Should storms redevelop a risk for hail and strong
to perhaps damaging winds still remains possible given
favorable wind shear and elevated CAPE around 2000-3000 j/kg. If
shower/storm redevelopment does not occur then some fog or
stratus may develop along and east of Highway 25; not thinking
dense fog at this time but think some visibility reductions of
3-6SM may be possible.

The main focus will then turn to Monday as we have another
severe threat across majority of the area. At this time forcing
for the day appears a little greater. A 500mb shortwave moving
through the area should provide enough lift for storms to
develop in the the mid to late afternoon hours north of
Interstate 70. A dryline looks to set up as a surface low begins
take shape, this where the main focus for storm development
will be. Any storm that can manage to develop during that
timeframe will be severe with large to very large hail given
4000-4500 j/kg of MUCAPE and surface CAPE of the same. Lapse
rates will be very unstable as well around 9 c/km. Wind shear
of 20- 25 knots will support some storm organization but do
think that splitting of storms will eventually yield a cluster
leading to more of a wind and flooding threat. If we can manage
to get a right moving supercell the storm would remain
stationary also leading to localized flooding concerns as PWATS
remain around 1.25 inches. Given warm to hot temperatures in the
90s and the steep lapse rates a landspout can`t be completely
ruled out as storms form especially along the dryline. A 2nd
round of storms overnight continues to look in the realm of
reality as a 700mb jet increases with northern portions of the
area in the left exit region of the jet which promotes lift,
this is also as another wave associated with a developing
surface low across southern Colorado moves into the area. Severe
weather would continue to be possible with that activity as
well given 4000 j/kg of MUCAPE and increased shear due to the
developing surface low. Large hail and damaging winds are again
possible with that activity as well. Any location that sees
rainfall from the multiple rounds may also see some flooding
risk but the overnight round should be moving fairly quickly so
should help reduce the flooding risk some. A caveat to
everything however is that GEFS ensembles show a handful of
"dry" solutions so there is potential again that storms either
not initiate or stay out of the area altogether, similar to
what has occurred the past two nights. Temperatures are a bit
tricky as some guidance suggests a run at the triple digits; i`m
not fully buying that as the air mass is still forecast to be
humid. If temperatures are able to warm up to around the triple
digits then we may be flirting with heat advisory conditions
across most of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The long-term will see a massive shift in the pattern from what
we have been seeing. Tuesday afternoon into the overnight
hours, an upper-level trough will dig into the High Plains,
causing a fairly widespread potential for severe weather. As
mentioned in the short- term, there is a chance showers and
storms continue into the mid- morning Tuesday. These would be
forced by widespread vorticity spreading from the shortwave of
Monday evening`s storms to the main trough coming in Tuesday
evening. These showers and storms, although there is only about
30% confidence they will occur, would stunt warming during the
day and limit instability, which would impact the Tuesday
evening storms. How much of am impact it will have is a major
unknown. The main round of storms look to enter the CWA`s west
side around 21-23Z and fairly quickly form into a QLCS that
could span the entire CWA. All hazards would be possible with
this line of storms.

Once this trough clears the area Tuesday night, the high will
quickly extent north and block the CWA from much active weather.
This high looks to remain in place until the weekend. During
this time, we can expect temperatures to climb to near record
highs by Friday, and generally dry conditions. This will
increase our risk of critical fire weather for Thursday through
Saturday. More information can be found in the fire weather
section below.

The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC-NH are all showing another large low
coming in from the Pacific Northwest creating a large,
vertically stacked system that would likely be our next major
chance at severe weather. Currently the models are all agreeing
that the front would move through around 0Z Monday, but this
could easily shift 24 hours.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Mon Jun 16 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast, though some
drifting low clouds around 1000ft and some fog could lead to
MVFR/IFR conditions during the first 2 hours of the period.
Skies are then forecast to be clear/mostly clear through the
early afternoon with winds remaining from the south at 10-15
kts. Starting around 21Z, there are chances for storms along a
warm front and dryline. Chances are only around 10-20%, so left
them off at this time. The better chances are around and after
00Z when storms from the Front Range begin trying to push
through the area. Similar to prior nights, storms would likely
be done by 06Z, but could last until 08Z. Once the storms clear,
there is the possibility for some lower ceilings between
1000-3000ft closer to the end of the period around 10-12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A major pattern shift is expected Tuesday night. But between
now and then, we are still expecting warm and relatively moist
conditions, minimizing our traditional critical fire weather
criteria. Also, today through Tuesday, we are expecting daily
chances at storms, potentially severe, to impact majority of the
area. These storms would create gusty, erratic winds, leading
to chaotic fire behavior. After Tuesday night, a high pressure
system will begin dominating the area. This will lead to a dry,
warming trend for the following days. Southerly winds are
already forecast to be gusting to around 25-30 MPH for large
portions of the area as the RH values drop into the teens.
Thursday could see brief critical fire weather conditions in
eastern Colorado, but Friday and Saturday have a decent chance
at seeing fairly widespread critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sun Jun 15 2025

The high pressure system mentioned in the long-term section will
cause temperatures to warm to the low 100s by Friday. Daily record
temperatures may be broken.

Friday June 20

Location        Record Year     Old Record     Forecast Temperature
McCook, NE      2017            101            108
Goodland, KS    1936            105            104
Hill City, KS   1988            108            106
Burlington,CO   1974            103            102


Friday June 21

Location        Record Year     Old Record     Forecast Temperature
McCook, NE      2017            106            108
Goodland, KS    1936            105            103
Hill City, KS   1936            106            104
Burlington,CO   2016            104            101

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK
FIRE WEATHER...CA
CLIMATE...CA/KAK