341
FXUS63 KGLD 270212
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
812 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief severe storm capable of producing quarter size hail
  and 60 mph wind gusts remains possible in Kit Carson/Cheyenne
  counties (CO) this evening.

- A few severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and
  evening, mainly north of I-70. Wind gusts up to 65 mph are the
  primary threat. Low confidence in storm development and
  coverage, similar to previous days.

- Near average temperatures Thursday followed by a warming
  trend, with highs peaking in the mid-upper 90`s on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Observational trends the past few hours suggest that severe
weather potential, on the whole, is decreasing, and that severe
weather potential in the Goodland CWA remains confined to the
Watch area (Kit Carson/Cheyenne) in eastern CO.

Individual updrafts within a cluster of convection over
Washington, Lincoln, Adams, Arapahoe and Elbert counties have
exhibited transient supercellular organization the past several
hours. With right-mover motion from the north (360 @ 15KT),
short-lived cyclonic updrafts are likely to remain west of Yuma,
Kit Carson ad Cheyenne counties in CO. With left-mover motion
from the west (260 @ 20KT), short-lived anticyclonic updrafts,
if present, could potentially affect western Kit Carson/Cheyenne
counties (CO).

Radar trends (refer to KPUX 1.2 to 2.4 deg elevation angles
from 00-02Z) suggest that persistent deep convection has spawned
a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) over portions of Elbert, El
Paso and Lincoln counties. This feature may perpetuate ongoing
convection or facilitate additional convective development as
it slowly progresses ESE-SE (via light NW steering flow) toward
the CO-KS border late this evening and overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026


For Wednesday through Friday, more of the same in what has
become a stagnant pattern. Weak forcing from embedded waves in
the zonal to northwest flow around the ridge will have
1000-1500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 30 kts of deep layer shear to work
with each afternoon. CAMs show convection originating on the
higher terrain to the west and rotating in during the late
afternoon and evening hours. Overnight, the low level jet will
maintain a threat of elevated convection, especially in eastern
areas, possibly lingering into early the next morning. The
overall severe threat will be marginal at best, weighted in
Colorado and adjacent counties of Kansas and Nebraska during
the afternoon and evening hours when instability and shear will
be maximized. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard, with
a few instances of large hail also possible. Overnight storms
will pose mainly a marginally severe hail threat with plentiful
MUCAPE remaining.

On Saturday the upper ridge will make a significant push
eastward into the Central Plains, stretching from north Texas to
Missouri by Saturday night. Under the ridge, both instability
and deep layer shear will be lower. Weak instability of 500-750
j/kg is forecast Saturday afternoon with deep layer shear of
10-20 kts. Convective initiation will be limited to the
mountains and Front Range where southwest flow will be in place.
Some of that convection may eventually reach the area Saturday
night, but with a northeasterly storm motion it may take until
mid to late evening to reach far northeast Colorado. Convection
should be weakening by then and the probability of severe
weather will be low, mainly wind from any decaying shower or
storm.

Temperatures show a gradual warming trend through the period:
near normal on Thursday, slightly above normal on Friday and
above normal on Saturday under the ridge with upper 90s to
around 100 possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 231 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Synoptically, on Sunday the upper level ridge begins to set up over
the SE CONUS while a trough begins to move into the Pacific
Northwest. This change will transition our upper level flow to be
primarily out of the west to southwest. During this period,
shortwaves are expected to move through the area, potentially
increasing precipation chances.

Throughout the period, high temperatures are forecast to be mainly
in the 90s. Sunday is currently forecast to be the warmest day,
with highs in the 90s for the majority of the CWA. Areas east
of Hwy 83 have the best chance of seeing triple digits
temperatures on Sunday. The "coolest" day is currently forecast
to be Monday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Winds are
expected to mainly remain calm through the early part of the
week.

Regarding precipitation, there is potential for showers and storms
each afternoon. Sunday and Monday currently have the highest
potential with PoPs, ranging from 25-50% across the area. As for
severe potential, while shear values appear to be decent, guidance
suggests that CAPE values may limit storm development. This could
result in more showers than storms. From Tuesday onward,
precipitation chances begin to taper off, with PoPs in the
10-20% range.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z  FRIDAY/...
Issued at 423 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Main aviation concern will be scattered thunderstorms tonight
through Thursday morning. Best chances at KGLD will be from mid
to late evening and best chances at KMCK will be early this
evening then once again late overnight into early Thursday
morning. Brief gusty winds and reductions in visibility and
ceilings can be expected during any thunderstorm.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Vincent
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...024