657
FXUS63 KGLD 180450
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered storm chances through mid week. A
  few severe storms will be possible in the afternoon and early
  evening with large hail and damaging winds.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures today, then near
  to slightly below normal Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Late evening showers and storms have been respecting the CWA
boundary and weakening, largely leaving the area dry. This is
forecast to continue through the night, but there is a 20% chance of
a storms or two with a small surface low to the northwest and
continued weak low level moisture advection. Our severe weather
threat is likely done for the night. Temperatures should cool into
the 60s and 70s with a mix of clouds and clear skies.

Today, the upper trough over the Great Lakes region is forecast to
shift south and east. This should finish pulling the low pressure
system and associated boundary through the area during the day. The
current forecast as the system either reaching Highway 40 or
clearing the area to the south around the mid-afternoon. If the
system does speed up, the colder air should lag behind with most of
the area warming into the 90s. Low 100s are possible closer to
Central Kansas. Winds should also be shifting from out of the south,
to out of the north at 10-15 mph through the day. Skies should also
be sunny for most of the day.

Getting into the afternoon and evening hours, cloud cover is
forecast to slowly increase as storms try and fire up. The first
batch of storms only has a 10-20% chance of occurring and would fire
along the front/low around 2-6pm MT. This would favor locales near
Highway 40. These storms would have a chance to produce large hail
with instability around 1500-3000 J/kg and effective shear around 30-
40 kts in a favorable environment. The main inhibitors are that
either the storms may be capped behind the boundary, or the air
ahead will be too warm and dry which would lower instability
significantly. But as mentioned above, strong storms are possible if
they can find the sweet spot along the surface system. Otherwise,
the second round is forecast to occur more in the evening and early
overnight hours as storms fire up along the higher terrain to the
west. With support from level level easterly upslope flow and a
potential shortwave in the upper flow, storms could fire up in
multiple batches and push east. The multiple batches and late start
time are forecast to keep the severe threat on the low side, with
large hail and wind gusts around 60-70 mph in the stronger storms.
Storms if they form may linger all night, which may keep
temperatures in the 60s and 70s with the additional cloud cover.

Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler on the back
side of the surface low. Highs are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s
underneath partly cloudy skies. Winds will likely be on the lighter
side around 5-10 mph. The afternoon and evening hours bring another
chance for storms and severe weather, but the chances remain low.
Between the higher surface pressure and amplifying of the ridge to
the west, the overall forcing is a bit on the weaker side. This
could change if a strong enough wave can move through the
northwest flow, in which case a few storms capable of producing large
hail and wind gusts of 60-70 mph is possible. Western and norther
portions are currently favored. Overnight, lows may be able to reach
the upper 50s if the storms don`t linger and skies clear.

Thursday, there is not much change in the pattern with the upper
ridge to the west, keeping the area under northwest flow. Near the
surface, some lower surface pressure is forecast to develop north of
the area and switch our winds to out of the south. With the warm air
advection, temperatures should be warmer in the 90s. For the
afternoon and evening hours, another low chance for storms and
severe weather is possible with forcing likely on the weak side.
Still, should a few storms form, large hail would be a concern with
0-6km shear forecast to be a bit higher around 40-45kts. Thursday
night would probably see storms clear the area or dissipate fairly
early in the night. Winds are forecast to lighten with temperatures
lingering in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

GEFS, EC, and LREF ensembles support a 500-mb high moving in
overhead beginning Friday morning, and remaining through the end of
the forecast period. Southerly flow near the surface is favored
underneath the ridge. The exception to this would be if shortwave
troughs coming over the Rockies could develop a surface low over or
just to the south of the forecast region, favoring northerly surface
flow. Otherwise, hot conditions supported by the southerly flow and
solar heating are expected for the full duration of the long term
period, with highs forecast in the 90s Friday through Monday.

Dry conditions are also forecast in the long term due to the higher
temperatures. Relative humidities (RH) look to be in the low to mid
20s across portions of East-Central Colorado Friday through Monday.
It is possible that RH values could drop even further into the teens
across portions of the forecast region, with some areas showing as
high as a 40% chance of doing so between Friday and Sunday according
to LREF guidance. The broadest area covered by these elevated
probabilities is on Sunday along and south of I-70, where nearly all
areas have a 1 in 3 chance or higher of RH values dropping into the
teens. These lower RH values would be most probable if a shortwave
trough could traverse areas north and east of the forecast area
along the leading edge of the upper-level high. This could support
southwesterly to westerly flow developing across the forecast area,
and thus, promote even higher temperatures and drier conditions with
RH in the teens. Even so, fire weather is not expected during this
period, as wind gusts are forecast to remain below 25 mph in areas
of the lowest RH values.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible in the long term period,
however NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows a 25% chance or less
across the forecast region that greater than 0.1 inches of rain will
be experienced from Friday to Sunday. These probabilities increase a
little bit across Eastern Colorado Monday, where there is up to a
45% chance. If storms are able to develop, the most likely area
where they would become severe is across Red Willow County in
Nebraska, and Decatur, Norton, and Graham Counties in Kansas. LREF
guidance is suggestive of a 40% chance or higher across this zone
through the long term period that sfc-500mb wind shear would
exceed 30 kts. Even so, uncertainty regarding whether storms
would form in addition to their coverage leaves confidence in
severe storms occurring less than 5% Friday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Mon Aug 17 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. There is the possibility for some low level wind shear
with winds around 500ft forecast to be 40kts between 08-13Z.
However, the jet is forecast to be passing through in about 2-3
hours as the next system nears the area, limiting how long low
level wind shear is present. Winds at the surface should roughly
be from the south at 10kts, then switching to out of the
north/northeast around 16-19Z as a front/low moves through the
area. Finally, there may be storms at either terminal after
00Z, but more likely after 04Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KAK