458
FXUS63 KGLD 110606
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for southeastern portions of the
  area where heat index values could reach the mid to upper 100s
  this afternoon.

- Storm chances continue daily the next few days.

- Best chance for severe weather looks to be on Wednesday. Large
  hail, damaging wind gusts, and flooding look to be the main
  threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1204 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Observations close to the midnight hour show that showers and storms
have fizzled out across the area as convective inhibition and
stability have built into the area. There may be a few showers and a
storm overnight with a few outflow boundaries lingering and some
elevated instability, but they should fade quickly and would be
unlikely to be severe. With this, partly cloudy skies are forecast
for most of the area while temperatures drop into the 60s. That
being said, temperatures may bottom out in the 70s east of a line
from Tribune to Norton where cloud cover could linger through the
night. Fog looks to be a little less likely tonight as long as the
cloud cover lingers and keeps the area insulated. Otherwise, some
patches of fog could develop in Northwest Kansas and Southwest
Nebraska if skies clear, especially with light surface winds.

During the daytime hours, not much is expected to be different from
Monday with the upper ridge still in place over much of the High
Plains. The ridge may try and amplify a bit, but this looks to be
more over the west which shouldn`t affect temperatures too much. As
such, highs are forecast to reach the upper 90s through mid 100s
again. Given that southeastern portions of the area reached mid to
upper 100 heat index values yesterday, a Heat Advisory has been
issued for much of these same areas. There is a chance that counties
close to the Colorado border may dry out and have heat index values
more in the low 100s, but it will likely still feel hot either way.
Especially with light winds forecast due to the surface low being
broad and keeping the pressure gradient weak.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, there will be some more
chances for storms. However, the shortwave energy looks to be a bit
further north and the low being broad likely won`t provide as much
support. With this, storms will still try and initially move into
Eastern Colorado, but be less likely to push east with the overall
lack of support and drying air. Given how yesterday performed,
severe weather is unlikely short of maybe a rogue wind gust up to
70 mph if a storm can really get organized. The showers and storm
chances lower as we go into the night, but any strong outflows may
help spark some showers/storms that could last through the night.
Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are forecast overnight with
temperatures again dropping into the 60s and 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Wednesday is looking to be our final day of unseasonably warm
temperatures for the county warning area (CWA). High temperatures
are forecast in the 90s to 100s Wednesday. Winds will overall be
light, but afternoon gusts around 25 mph are possible for the
northwest CWA. After Wednesday, our region is forecast to
transition to a weak ridging pattern aloft with ensembles showing a
persistent surface low setting up somewhere in western Kansas. This
will start a much needed cooling trend for the CWA. High
temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s for Thursday. The
cooling trend continues through the weekend with high temperatures
forecast in the 70s to 80s Friday through Monday.

Starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing through the end of the
forecast period, chances for precipitation are plentiful throughout
the entire CWA. Currently, the the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
our CWA outlooked for varying degrees of severe weather potential
with the northern CWA being the highest at a slight risk of severe
weather for Wednesday. Model soundings are showing less than 1000
J/kg of CAPE, 0-6 km shear around 30-40 knots and strong low to mid
level lapse rates. Main hazards are expected to be large hail and
severe winds if storms are able to form. Where the best chances for
severe weather to occur will ultimately be dependent on where
in western Kansas the surface low sets up. If the low sets up a
bit further south, severe weather coverage could increase south
of I-70. Model soundings are also showing precipitable water
values above 1 inch throughout the CWA. Heavy rainfall and
flooding potential will be a concern for any storms that form,
regardless of severity. Slow moving storms and any training
storms will have the highest potential for flooding.

Thursday through at least Sunday, chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue for the area due to multiple rounds of
embedded shortwaves passing through the region. The late afternoons
and evenings will be our best chances for precipitation each day with
PoPs maxing out around 80% for the western CWA and decreasing
further east. With multiple days of widespread precipitation in the
forecast, flooding potential will need to be monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1000 PM MDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For KGLD and KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable starting from the
west and gradually swing clockwise until they are mostly out of the
east towards the end of the period. There is a less than 5% chance
for visibilities less than 5SM after 4Z for both KGLD and KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 8 PM MDT /9 PM
     CDT/ this evening for KSZ014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Rhoades