640
FXUS63 KGLD 130611
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1211 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms are again forecast this evening with
  damaging winds up to 75 mph possible. Blowing dust may be
  possible as well during the evening limiting visibility to a
  mile or less. Heavy rainfall may continue through the night
  leading to nuisance flooding concerns.

- Storm chances continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1203 AM MDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Current observations show boundaries draped across the area from
storms earlier in the evening. While the main batches of storms have
been west and north of the area, these outflow boundaries may kick
up a few showers and storms through the remainder of the night.
Winds should also switch to be more out of the north behind the main
outflow boundary that is slowly progressing south through the area.
Even with the northerly winds though, temperatures will likely be
slow to cool with the convection and cloud cover in the area. With
this, most of the area will likely be in the 70s. Closer to sunrise,
more of the area may be able to drop into the 60s as skies clear up
a bit.

Today should be a bit cooler compared to the prior days as the low
likely with shift a little more east and south, allowing for some
colder air to trickle in. Additional cloud cover from early storms
may further help keep temperatures a bit cooler. For locales around
the Tri-State border, temperatures may peak in the 80s, while much
of the rest of the area reaches the 90s. There may be a few 100s
around Graham and Gove counties depending on how far the low is able
to shift. Winds should be from the northeast around 10-15 mph as
long as the low shifts south. Otherwise, winds may be a bit more
easterly through the day.

During the late afternoon and evening hours, we are forecast to have
another chance for showers and storms for a majority of the area.
The surface low is still forecast to be close enough to provide some
moisture and lift while a shortwave moves through the upper level
flow. This combined should allow showers and storms to develop both
west and south of the area. The western storms will have a high
chance (70-90%) of making it to counties along the Colorado border,
aided by the advancing shortwave. The southern storms moving into
the rest of the area are a lower chance (40-70%) as the low may
shift enough that the storms form too far away to sustain in the
area or not have enough moisture remain. If both lines do hold
together though, then most if not all of the area could see rain
this evening and early tonight. There will be another chance for
severe weather though with 0-6km shear around 30 kts, MUCAPE around
1500-2500 J/kg, and mid level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km supportive
of hail around 1-1.5". Hail will likely end up below an inch in most
storms though due to a high melting level around 16000-18000ft
again. Wind still remains the biggest concern, especially with the
environment similar to yesterday and the slew of 60-75 mph reports
that came in north of the area from the clustering storms. It
wouldn`t be unreasonable for another batch of 60-75 mph gusts should
the clusters push into the area. This also does raise concern for
blowing dust, especially if the storms move through before the
inversion sets up and lowers the weaker stability. The tornado
threat remains low with the bases of the storms, but a brief one may
be possible if there is an organized convergence line. The storms
activity could persist all the way through the night if it does move
into the area, but the forecast is for storms to end around 3-4am CT
as the shortwave continues to push east. If the storms do stick
around longer, the flooding threat will increase (though flash
flooding may be possible with the initial storms by themselves). The
main issue is that storms may train over the same area while
producing heavy rainfall due to the high melting level and
long/skinny CAPE. This is especially true if an MCS develops and
wraps storms over the same area. Otherwise, skies would slowly clear
a bit and allow temperatures to fall into the 60s and 70s again.

Friday, the surface low is forecast to become a bit broader across
the Plains while shifting a bit more to the east. With this and the
deepening of the upper trough over the West Coast, temperatures
across the area are forecast to be in the 80s and 90s with 100s
finally not in the picture (hopefully). Winds will likely be on the
lighter side as well from the east at 5-10 mph. If the low deepens again
near the area, then winds may be more from the southeast around 10-
15 mph.

For the late afternoon and evening hours, more showers and storms
are forecast in a roughly similar fashion to Thursday. The main
uncertainty is if the low will stay broad and east, or deepen near
the area. If it stays broad and east, storms and showers are more
likely just for counties along the Colorado border due to a
shortwave in the southwest upper flow. Otherwise, the entire area
may see storms in two batches again. Severe weather would be
possible, though the cooling temperatures and weaker surface forcing
may lower the severe potentially a bit compared to Thursday.
Otherwise, hazards and concerns will be pretty similar.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The long term period begins with approximately southwesterly flow
overhead at 500-mb Saturday morning. A shortwave trough embedded in
this flow looks to support a surface low pressure traversing the
forecast region during the afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front behind the low. NBM 24
hr precipitation guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for greater than
0.1 inches of precipitation Saturday across nearly the entire area.
Currently, thunderstorms are not expected to become severe, as GFS
and EC model soundings show less than 30 kts of sfc-500mb vertical
wind shear across the forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of
this solution, suggesting a 1 in 3 chance or less that vertical wind
shear exceeds 30 kts. If severe thunderstorms were able to occur,
they would be most likely across Red Willow County in Nebraska and
Norton County in Kansas, particularly if a 500-mb jet streak to the
north can move into this region. However, confidence remains low
(around 5%) that severe thunderstorms will occur Saturday. Highs are
currently forecast in the 80s and lower 90s, save for eastern parts
of Graham and Gove Counties in Kansas where highs may reach into the
mid 90s.

GEFS and EC ensembles are in support of a ridge building in
throughout the day Saturday from the South-Central Plains all the
way to the Pacific Northwest. This ridge looks to be fully developed
by Sunday morning, and is expected to be in place through at least
Monday night. The ridge axis would initially be just west of the
forecast area, with a surface high downstream in the Dakotas and
Midwest. Northerly/northeasterly winds on Sunday associated with
this surface high may allow high temperatures to drop into the upper
70s to mid 80s across the forecast area Sunday and Monday.
Thunderstorms may continue during this period as well. A surface low
across the Four-Corners Region would support southerly flow across
the Southern Plains, meeting the northerly flow in Kansas to create
a convergence zone. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues to
show a 60-80% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Sunday, but
drops to a 30-50% chance on Monday when the surface high to the
north moves into the Midwest and allows southerly flow to dominate
in Kansas. Even so, LREF guidance continues to show a 25% chance or
less that vertical wind shear will exceed 30 kts across the forecast
region, limiting the severe risk. Confidence in severe weather
occurring either Sunday or Monday is less than 5%.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Tuesday. Ensemble
guidance is in support of the ridge fully moving overhead and
remaining in place for the remainder of the long term period, with
troughing remaining offshore to the west. However, GFS and EC
deterministics suggest that the trough may move in faster, moving
into the Rockies/Northern High Plains Region by Tuesday night. This
is represented in the 500-mb height spread guidance which shows a
large amount of spread developing over this region going into
Tuesday. If this trough can move in, a surface low could develop in
the North-Central Plains, establishing southwesterly flow across the
forecast area. It would then move southeastward with time, crossing
the forecast area Wednesday. If the ridge is able to remain in place
during this period, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s could be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if the trough can move
inland Tuesday and develop a surface low, conditions on Tuesday
could be hotter, with drier conditions as well. A cold front would
then be possible on Wednesday as the low crosses the area. LREF
guidance is about 75-80% in favor of the ridge remaining in place
during this period, which would suggest conditions simply remaining
warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected initially along low level wind
shear through around 11Z. After 11Z, a wave of low stratus is
expected to affect the terminal through at least 20z. Winds will be
mostly out of the northeast for the TAF period, but around 03Z,
showers are possible at the terminal along with a wind shift to out
of the southwest.

For KMCK, winds will be mostly out of the northeast for the TAF
period. Conditions will initially start out as VFR but low stratus
is expected to move in around 13Z and last through at least 20Z. Low
confidence in thunderstorms affecting the terminal towards the end
of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Rhoades