985
FXUS63 KGLD 190731
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
131 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated, high-based thunderstorms possible Thursday afternoon
  and evening with a localized wind and hail threat.

- Isolated storms may develop once again Friday afternoon and
  evening.

- Very hot temperatures expected across the entire area Friday
  through Sunday. Air temperatures and heat indices between 100
  and 105 will lead to excessive heat concerns. While fire
  weather concerns will also develop those same days due to
  gusty winds and low humidity, fuels are not as conducive to
  explosive growth.

- More extensive precipitation chances return beginning Sunday
  night through early next week with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 128 AM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

This morning, winds will quickly speed up from the south-southwest.
By 18Z, we can expect to see gusts around 30-35 kts with an
occasional 40 kts gust throughout the area. Temperatures will warm
into the mid and upper 90s across the Tri-State area, which will
allow relative humidities into the mid teens in the far western
edges of the CWA. However, the more westerly the winds are today,
the lower the dew points and RH values will be, making critical fire
weather conditions more likely. Due to feedback from wildfire fuels
partners, fuels are not primed for rapid or erratic wildfire growth,
so no fire weather products are currently being considered.

This afternoon, around 21-23Z, the dryline is expected to be set up
in the western column of counties in Kansas. This could lead to
convective initation as convective temperatures are reached around
21-23Z along the dryline. There is only about a 20% chance this
occurs, but if storms are able to form, early in the storm`s life
cycle, a landspout or two would be possible, in the mature portion
of the life cycle, hail up to 1.5 inches or accumulating small hail
are possible, and as the storm(s) decay, winds up to 60 MPH may
occur. The storms only look to have severe potential until about 1-
2Z.

Overnight, temperatures will cool into the mid 60s in the western
CWA, and low 70s in the eastern CWA.

Friday is still expected to be a very hot day with temperatures
warming into the 100-106 range and heat indices being only a degree
or two cooler than the air temperature. We cannot rule out needing a
Heat Advisory, but currently one has not been issued. Either way,
stay cool and hydrated.

Traditional critical fire weather conditions should be expected
along and west of a line from Benkelman, NE to Cheyenne Wells, CO.
RH values will drop into the low to mid teens while southwesterly
winds will be sustained around 20 kts, gusting to around 30 kts in
the afternoon hours. Once again, due to fuel conditions, no Red Flag
Warnings are being considered.

There is another chance the dryline sets off some more storms in the
afternoon Friday, but the potential is lower, around 5-10% chance of
storms firing. If they are able to fire, similar hazards should be
expected on Friday as were mentioned for Thursday along a similar
area and time frame.

Overnight temperatures Friday night are a bit uncertain as they will
heavily depend on how much moisture is in the area. If dew points
remain in the upper 50s to low 60s Friday evening and night,
temperatures would likely only cool into the upper 70s.
However, if the dew points are in the 40s and the winds weaken
overnight, lows would cool into the mid to upper 60s. This means
there is a chance (50%) will not get our typical overnight relief
from the warm temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Heat concerns continue into Sunday with the southwest flow at
the surface and aloft. Highs will again easily reach the upper
90s to lower 100s across the area. A cold front will be dropping
into western Nebraska by late in the afternoon, with a surface
trough trailing southward. Similar to previous days, isolated high
based convection may develop near the surface feature with
attendant risk for strong wind. Sunday night, the front sags
south into the area, but will take its time doing so. It will be
the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm chances
through the night and once again on Monday. Temperatures will be
returning closer to normal on Monday with the frontal passage
and increased cloud cover/precipitation.

Precipitation chances continue Tuesday and Wednesday as the
front stalls near or in the area and parallels the upper flow.
Shear and instability parameters appear marginal for severe risk
at this time. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal
with highs mostly in the 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM MDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Generally, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will gradually increase throughout the night, but will
rapidly increase around sunrise. While we`re not hitting the 30
kts change over 200 feet criteria, LLWS is a bit of a concern
tonight and tomorrow night. Winds in the 500-1,500 AGL range
will be from the south-southwest at around 35-45 kts tonight,
but up to 50 kts tomorrow night. Gusts at the surface through
the mid-day will be around 30-35 kts, although some 40 kts
gusts cannot be ruled out. Did include the chance for storms as
PROB30s due to the potential impact they could have. If the
storms do form, they would impact both TAF sites with rain and
erratic winds, but will move through fairly quickly.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA