306
FXUS63 KGLD 201722
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1022 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog has returned this morning. Patches of freezing fog may
  lead to slick elevated surfaces.

- Widespread rainfall expected with an upcoming storm system on
  Thursday and Friday. Western portions of the area may have a
  rain/snow mix.

- Another chance for precipitation early next week.

- Colder pattern expected around Thanksgiving.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

This morning, a mid-level, shortwave ridge is moving over the region
as a surface low is moving over southern Kansas. This will cause our
winds to gradually become northeasterly as RH values remain near
100%. This will lead to more fog, potentially dense, this morning.
Confidence for widespread dense fog this morning is sitting around
50-65%. Temperatures across the CWA are hovering around freezing,
leading to an 80% chance of patchy freezing fog in locations where
fog forms. Road surface temperatures are still warm enough that
widespread black ice will not be an issue but, elevated surfaces,
such as bridges and raised ramps, will likely become slick if the
freezing fog occurs.

Today, will remain cloudy ahead of the next incoming low. This low,
which is currently crossing the Southern Rockies, will bring
widespread rain to the region. Precipitation in the southwestern CWA
could start as early at 14-16Z, but will have certainly started by
19-21Z. By 0Z this evening, effectively all of the CWA will be
receiving rain. The system will be ending precipitation around 12-
15Z Friday in the southwestern CWA, and the CWA will be clear of
precipitation by 6Z Saturday.

As mentioned, widespread rain is expected, but Friday morning,
between 9-15Z, eastern Colorado will likely see a rain/snow mix.
There is a 10-15% chance of localized trace accumulations of snow
west of a line from Haigler, NE to Kit Carson, CO. As far as a
contingency, there is an outside (<1%) chance that CAA is stronger
than guidance is showing or a snowband sets up over eastern
Colorado. This would lead to snow for a few hours instead of just a
rain/snow mix. In this scenario, up to 2 inches of snow could
accumulate, impacting I-70 west of Stratton, CO.

Overnight lows tonight are forecast to cool into the low 30s to low
40s with the potential for temperatures below freezing mainly
staying in eastern Colorado. Some model guidance is showing
widespread 1-3 mile visibilities Friday morning. While this is
likely a byproduct of the rain, there is a 5-10% chance this will be
another round of fog. Be aware for occasional patches of ice forming
on elevated surface, such as bridges, early Friday morning.

Highs Friday will be limited by the precipitation, likely remaining
in the low to mid 40s for most of the area, but the southern CWA
could warm to near 50. As mentioned before, precipitation looks to
impact the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures Friday night
will cool into the upper 20s to low 30s, depending on how quickly
the sky clears out. Black ice on elevated surfaces will be possible
overnight Friday for locations that do not dry out in the evening
and are able to freeze by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1257 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

The focus for this part of the forecast is the closed low moving in
early next week.  Models are in good agreement with the closed low
as it moves onto the Plains Sunday into Monday.  The four different
clusters the model ensemble data falls into are quite similar with
the track/speed of this storm system.  The main difference seems to
be how quickly the closed low will lift northeast.  The faster
clusters keep most if not all of the precipitation east of the
forecast area as the system moves northeast.  The two slower
clusters of models have precipitation directed over the forecast
area.  In general models move closed low pressure systems too
quickly, which adds confidence that the slower model clusters are
more likely to end up happening.  At this point the potential for
snow occurring in the western part of the forecast area is near
zero.  Dew points remain too high for snow to form.

Another system moves through the Plains a day later.  This system
may be too far north to bring much precipitation to the forecast
area. Models vary with the track, but keep it over the Norther
Plains. Gusty winds would seem to be the more likely weather
phenomena to occur given the forecast area will be on the southern
side of the closed low as it moves through.

Behind this storm system the upper level flow remains from the
northwest as a ridge builds over the West Coast.  While the flow
currently looks laminar, this is a favorable setup for minor upper
level short wave troughs to move through the flow and bring
precipitation chances to the Plains.  However the areal extent is
small and the predictability is a bit more of a challenge. This
pattern will also be favorable for cooler temperatures to move
in from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1015 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the first 3-6
hours as fog has dissipated across the area. Some high clouds
around 15000-20000ft are forecast during this time. After about
20-21Z, KGLD should see showers and lower ceilings around 1000ft
begin to move in while KMCK is currently forecast to see the
showers around 23Z. After the showers move in, heavier showers
will become possible after a few hours (mainly between 00-12Z)
along with ceilings steadily lowering to around a few hundred
feet. No severe weather or strong wind gusts are currently
expected at this time. Do be cautious though tonight as
temperatures are forecast to lower to a bit above freezing,
potentially providing a chance for icing. Freezing fog and
drizzle could also form, especially closer to sunrise. That
being said, the chances for freezing near the surface are around
25% as the cloud cover should help temperatures stay insulated.
Another thing to note is that the precipitation may not be
steady with some breaks inbetween. The longer the break, the
greater the chance for fog and maybe even some dense fog.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...KAK