563
FXUS63 KGLD 011953
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
153 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense fog may be possible again Tuesday morning, favoring those
  east of Highway 25.

- Near average temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s
  are forecast through the mid part of the week.

- Storm chances are forecast to be lower, with a few showers or
  storms possible each day this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

Across the eastern CWA, today`s temperatures are being heavily
limited where stratus is lingering and dense fog persisted through
most of the morning. These areas will likely only warm into the mid
70s. However, the southwestern CWA has already warmed to around 80
and is expected to top out in the mid 80s. A low near Omaha,
Nebraska was responsible for a heavily tilted shortwave trough this
morning that caused some light showers over the northeastern CWA.
Another shortwave trough is following the first and is expected to
clip the eastern two columns of counties this afternoon. This could
be enough forcing to fire off a few weak storms. Ample moisture will
still be in place, but there will be fairly limited instability.
Best timing for precipitation will be between 19-03Z. There is also
a ~5% chance a stronger storm will be able to form in southern Gove
or Logan counties today. These areas are on the warm side of the
stratus and there is already a line of Cu bulbing across DDC`s CWA
which may extend into the aforementioned locations. Realistically,
the worst hazards would be 1 inch hail and a 55-60 MPH gust.

Overnight temperatures will cool into the 50s with the eastern
portions of the area remaining in the upper 50s. Yet another night
of stratus and fog is forecast as a a weak shortwave ridge looks to
follow the shortwave troughs. Along and east of KS 25 is forecast to
be the worst conditions with dense fog possible yet again.

Tomorrow morning, the 850 mb low that`s been sitting over the
eastern Great Plains will move off to the southeast, taking a lot of
our excess moisture with it. This should allow the area to clear up
by noon and let most of the CWA warm into the low to mid 80s.
Locations that have lingering stratus and fog late in the morning
will likely only warm up to around 80. Tomorrow afternoon into the
evening, we could (5-10%) see some scattered showers coming out off
northern Colorado, but severe weather is not expected. Tomorrow
night, looks to cool into the low to mid 50s, but fog looks less
likely as our surface moisture will have lowered.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

The general unsettled pattern in the long-term is expected to remain
as we remain under northwesterly flow. We will have a high pressure
system over the Four Corners region with low pressure to the
northeast of the Great Plains.

Wednesday and Thursday are becoming interesting days. We are
expecting a cold front to sweep through the area both of these days.
This will be enough forcing to start off some storms, especially
considering we`ll be under the right exit regions of the 500 & 250
mb jets. Wednesday`s convective potential looks slightly more
limited than Thursday as there will be less moisture to be working
with. Additionally, Thursday looks to warm up to around 90 for most
of the area, providing more instability to tap into. The NBM in
showing less than 15 PoPs for these days, but forecaster confidence
is 20-30% chance of isolated to scattered convection Wednesday and
35-50% confidence in scattered to widespread convection Thursday.
There will be a severe potential, but confidence for severe storms
is less than 15%.

Over the weekend, the GFS is showing a strong low near Baja
California moving across Arizona into the High Plains as another low
moves across the northwestern CONUS. Other models are showing the
mid-week low remaining near the Great Lakes and developing
additional troughs all around it, impacting the Great Plains. Either
way, it looks to be an active pattern for the upcoming weekend, but
details are up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1103 AM MDT Mon Sep 1 2025

For the rest of the day today, VFR conditions look to dominate.
At KGLD the stratus that moved in from the north has burned off
and at KMCK, ceilings have lifted to MVFR and are expected to
continue climbing. There is a 10% chance some showers and
storms will impact KMCK before 3Z with minimal impacts expected.
KGLD will continue to see gusts up around 20 kts today and KMCK
is forecast to start getting similar gusts later this afternoon
as the remainder of the surface inversion wears away.

Overnight tonight, a repeat of the past few nights is expected.
Ceilings will certainly drop at KMCK, and fog is likely, LIFR
conditions are expected. KGLD has a 30% chance at seeing some
IFR conditions tonight, too. Stratus and fog look to start
moving in around 6-8Z and last into the mid morning, again.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA