361
FXUS63 KGLD 122237
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
437 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect again today for counties along
  and south of a Wallace to Graham county line. Heat index
  values and air temperatures could reach 105-110 if the front
  doesn`t move through early.

- Severe storms are possible today with damaging winds to 70 mph
  and perhaps an isolated instance or two of large hail.

- Strong to severe storms are again forecast Thursday with
  damaging winds up to 75 mph possible, blowing dust may be
  possible as well during the evening limiting visibility to a
  mile or less. Heavy rainfall may continue through the night
  leading to nuisance flooding concerns.

- Storm chances continue through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 435 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Yuma County
through 9pm MDT. Main hazards are expected to be strong winds
and hail up to ping pong ball sized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1241 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A surface low is over the area leading to a decent coverage of
showers and weak storms this morning across the area due to the
additional forcing. Drier mid level air is forecast to
gradually push in from the south during the day which should
help limit or fully eliminate coverage and should let the sun
return. As this occurs temperatures will rapidly increase. May
not be as warm as first though but heat indices around 105
degrees will still be a concern across the Heat Advisory area.
Decatur and Norton are a little iffy on how warm it will get but
will leave the advisory in place for now. An 850mb jet is
forecast to develop during the afternoon leading to breezy winds
around 15-20 mph sustained mainly south of I-70. This may lead
to a period of elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions should we warm up into the 100s across that area.

This afternoon, a west to east surface convergence boundary is
forecast to develop across NW Kansas and could be the source for
isolated to widely scattered storm development with it.
Confidence is increase that at least a storm or two will form
along this boundary as it is on the nose of an increasing 850mb
jet. A low end severe storm could be possible along with the
potential of a landspout or two especially if the boundary
remains stationary or very slow moving.

Our main severe threat looks to be this evening across eastern
Colorado and across far NW Kansas and far SW Nebraska. With the low
pressure system forecast to remain a little further north than
previously expected, this may help keep our severe threat confined
to Yuma and western Dundy counties. Wind up to 70 mph would be the
main threat but if an updraft could remain strong enough then a
window for some large hail up to ping pong ball size. A blowing dust
threat may also develop as well especially if an outflow can
get shot out of the storms and winds could remain strong to
damaging. Main concern for this would be from around 6pm-9pm MT
but chances of this scenario are less than 20%. Overnight
additional redevelopment of showers and storms is expected along
the lingering 850mb jet and a new developing 700mb jet but
severe weather looks to be unlikely with this activity. If
shower and storm coverage is able to wane Thursday morning then
some stratus or patchy fog across the area would be possible.

Thursday, our surface low is forecast to move slowly to the east
and should be out of the area enough to keep the majority if
not all of the area out the triple digit heat. Based on current
guidance think the far east would be the only area that could
be affected by the triple digits. For high temperatures will
keep high temperatures forecast on the higher side of guidance
with temperatures in the low 80s across Yuma to the upper 90s
across the far east. If the low were to shunt further east then
temperatures would come down further and especially if the
morning cloud cover lingers longer than currently forecast.

During the afternoon and evening, with the low to our east, this
does open the door for some better rainfall potential with a
southwest to northeast moving shortwave. A lingering cold front
across the area should help further initiate convection during
the evening hours. Damaging winds up to 75 mph looks to be the
main hazard for the day, but am a little concerned about the
blowing dust threat as the activity moves to the north as mixing
heights are forecast to be significantly lower around 4000-6000
feet AGL than the previous few days as it won`t be as hot.
Something that could limit the dust threat however is slower
storm motions and the later arrival of the convection is it may
not arrive to the area until after 01Z which may be enough to
let lapse rates become a bit less unstable. Rainfall may be able
to continue to keep going through the evening and possibly
overnight as well as mid level vorticity continues to move
through the area. With the slow storm motion and the potential
for redevelopment through out the night an isolated instance or
two of flooding may be a concern. It appears the one thing
keeping the area from a better hydro concern is that the CAPE
overnight wanes so have doubts on if rainfall rates would be
enough to support the flooding especially given how dry it has
been as of late.

Friday, appears to be a fairly reminiscent day to Thursday as
the low pressure systems moves slightly further to the east.
High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s currently appears to be
a lot more likely as well. Have we deserved this cool down.
Showers and weak storms may be lingering through the morning
hours but should end by early afternoon. Another chance for
showers and storms exists Friday evening and overnight. The
favored area currently appears to be across eastern Colorado
where a stronger 700mb vorticity max looks to be located. During
the evening an increasing 700mb jet is forecast to develop
which should be able to help generate other convection further
east into NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. Not overly excited for the
severe weather potential with this activity due meager CAPE but
think some wind gusts of 60 mph may be possible. Additional
flooding may also be possible with very high PWATS around 1.8 in
place but looks to be dependent on what occurs Wednesday and
Thursday, so will be something to keep an eye on.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 213 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The long term period begins with approximately southwesterly flow
overhead at 500-mb Saturday morning. A shortwave trough embedded in
this flow looks to support a surface low pressure traversing the
forecast region during the afternoon and evening hours.
Thunderstorms are possible along a cold front behind the low. NBM 24
hr precipitation guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for greater than
0.1 inches of precipitation Saturday across nearly the entire area.
Currently, thunderstorms are not expected to become severe, as GFS
and EC model soundings show less than 30 kts of sfc-500mb vertical
wind shear across the forecast area. LREF guidance is in support of
this solution, suggesting a 1 in 3 chance or less that vertical wind
shear exceeds 30 kts. If severe thunderstorms were able to occur,
they would be most likely across Red Willow County in Nebraska and
Norton County in Kansas, particularly if a 500-mb jet streak to the
north can move into this region. However, confidence remains low
(around 5%) that severe thunderstorms will occur Saturday. Highs are
currently forecast in the 80s and lower 90s, save for eastern parts
of Graham and Gove Counties in Kansas where highs may reach into the
mid 90s.

GEFS and EC ensembles are in support of a ridge building in
throughout the day Saturday from the South-Central Plains all the
way to the Pacific Northwest. This ridge looks to be fully developed
by Sunday morning, and is expected to be in place through at least
Monday night. The ridge axis would initially be just west of the
forecast area, with a surface high downstream in the Dakotas and
Midwest. Northerly/northeasterly winds on Sunday associated with
this surface high may allow high temperatures to drop into the upper
70s to mid 80s across the forecast area Sunday and Monday.
Thunderstorms may continue during this period as well. A surface low
across the Four-Corners Region would support southerly flow across
the Southern Plains, meeting the northerly flow in Kansas to create
a convergence zone. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance continues to
show a 60-80% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain Sunday, but
drops to a 30-50% chance on Monday when the surface high to the
north moves into the Midwest and allows southerly flow to dominate
in Kansas. Even so, LREF guidance continues to show a 25% chance or
less that vertical wind shear will exceed 30 kts across the forecast
region, limiting the severe risk. Confidence in severe weather
occurring either Sunday or Monday is less than 5%.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase by Tuesday. Ensemble
guidance is in support of the ridge fully moving overhead and
remaining in place for the remainder of the long term period, with
troughing remaining offshore to the west. However, GFS and EC
deterministics suggest that the trough may move in faster, moving
into the Rockies/Northern High Plains Region by Tuesday night. This
is represented in the 500-mb height spread guidance which shows a
large amount of spread developing over this region going into
Tuesday. If this trough can move in, a surface low could develop in
the North-Central Plains, establishing southwesterly flow across the
forecast area. It would then move southeastward with time, crossing
the forecast area Wednesday. If the ridge is able to remain in place
during this period, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s could be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. However, if the trough can move
inland Tuesday and develop a surface low, conditions on Tuesday
could be hotter, with drier conditions as well. A cold front would
then be possible on Wednesday as the low crosses the area. LREF
guidance is about 75-80% in favor of the ridge remaining in place
during this period, which would suggest conditions simply remaining
warm.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 435 PM MDT Wed Aug 12 2026

For KGLD, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the
period. Winds will start out from out of the southeast then shift to
out of the northwest around 03Z from a frontal passage. By 08Z,
winds will shift to out of the northeast. A period of low stratus
around 12Z is possible resulting in low ceilings and LIFR
conditions. Ceilings are expected to lift after 18Z.

For KMCK, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the
TAF period. Winds will start off from out of the east and shift to
out of the northeast around 04Z. Low level wind shear is possible
for a few hours around this time. Low stratus is expected to
affect the terminal starting around 10Z resulting in IFR
conditions, but should improve after 18Z. There is around a 15%
chance of showers and thunderstorms affecting the terminal from
around 02Z through 05Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ003-004-014>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rhoades
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Rhoades