075
FXUS63 KGLD 062221
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
421 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday, though
  confidence is on the low side at this time.

- Fog may develop once again tonight and Sunday morning, and
  potentially Sunday night and Monday morning.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A cut off low in the southern Plains today is being picked up
by an approaching shortwave trough in the northern Rockies.
CAMs show convection developing along the Front Range this
afternoon with upslope flow as well as across southern Kansas
with the southern system. It does not appear that storms will
make it into the local area from either of those sources as they
gradually dissipate this evening with loss of surface heating.
Moist southerly flow continues tonight with low clouds and fog
developing in the overnight hours. Models point to the Kansas
and Colorado border area for the best potential for fog, which
could be dense once again. The low clouds and fog will gradually
burn off through Sunday morning.

Shortwave ridging will build over eastern Colorado and western
Kansas on Sunday, ahead of the strong system over the northern
Rockies. CAMs show widely scattered convection developing along
the Front Range in the afternoon once again, but also possibly
along the lee trough which will be further east in the plains.
Instability and shear will be very weak further west, but if a
storm manages to develop on the lee trough it would be closer to
the better instability and shear in place near the Kansas
border. Confidence is low in that scenario given the overall
lack of forcing, and only the 3-km NAM shows an isolated updraft
developing further east at this time. The isolated storm
chances in western areas should end by 03z with loss of
heating. A surface low is forecast to move from northeast
Colorado to near Goodland Sunday night. May see low clouds and
fog develop once again overnight and Monday morning with
moisture advecting in from the southeast into Kansas and
Nebraska, but westerly winds in Colorado and immediate adjacent
counties in Kansas/Nebraska my prevent it from forming in those
areas.

The surface low is forecast to move south and be in the Oklahoma
and Texas panhandle by Monday afternoon. The central plains will
have easterly upslope flow on the north side of the low. Aloft
will be increasing southwesterly flow between a ridge over Texas
and a strengthening closed low over Saskatchewan. There does
appear to be a weak embedded wave in the afternoon that will
provide some synoptic scale lift. Instability will be strongest
east of Highway 25 where 2000-3000 j/kg is forecast, weakening
to less than 1000 j/kg at the Colorado and Kansas border and
further weakening in Colorado. Deep layer shear will be 30-40
kts with the increasing flow aloft and directional shear. So, if
convection can develop the environment is supportive of
supercells, especially in the better instability to the east.
RRFS and REFS suggest a dry line will develop near Highway 27
which initiates convection, but the 3-km NAM has the dry line much
further east into Colorado with little to no convection in the
area. NBM is more supportive of the NAM at this time with broad
southeasterly flow all the way to the Front Range. So unless the
dry line is in the area as depicted by the RRFS the only
forcing for initiation will have to come from the weak wave
aloft. Given all of the uncertainty, confidence is on the low
side regarding severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

***Synopsis***

Troughing at 500-mb looks to be set up across the Western United
States Tuesday morning, with southwesterly flow overhead. This would
be associated with a strong low pressure to the west of the County
Warning Area (CWA), establishing southerly to southwesterly surface
flow across the region. Model guidance is inconsistent on the
development and eastward progression of the 500-mb trough, though
GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance suggests that it will move
overhead sometime Wednesday. When the trough does move overhead, a
cold front is likely to move through the forecast area. Ensemble
guidance is in favor of this upper-level trough developing into an
upper-level low somewhere across South-Central Canada Thursday, and
persisting through the end of the period, moving very slowly
eastward with time. Guidance is uncertain on how this will impact
the forecast area beyond Thursday, specifically regarding what
shortwave systems will develop around the low, and how strong they
will be.


***Tuesday***

With troughing to the west, conditions across the area look to
become hot. Forecast highs Tuesday are currently in the upper
90s and lower 100s. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow, in
addition to the hot temperatures, would support dry conditions
as well. Currently, forecast relative humidities (RH) are in the
lower to upper teens across most of the forecast area. As such,
critical fire weather conditions could be a concern Tuesday
afternoon. LREF guidance suggests that portions of Eastern
Colorado have the best opportunity to see RH meeting critical
fire weather criteria (15% or less), as high as a 50% chance.
Additionally, this same zone has a 90% chance or better to
receive wind gusts over 30 mph according to the NBM, which is
well-above criteria for the hazard (25 mph or greater).
Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest for
these Eastern Colorado Counties (Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne)
at around 30%. A small chance for showers also exists, though
24-hr NBM precipitation guidance shows less than a 15% chance
for all areas to receive greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation. The bigger risk for showers would be from dry
lightning as an additional source for fire ignition.


***Wednesday-Thursday***

As the 500-mb trough moves eastward and overhead, the broad surface
low would move eastward as well, allowing a cold front to traverse
the area sometime on Wednesday. Forecast highs are slightly cooler
than Tuesday, in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Despite these
slightly cooler conditions, RH values are favored to drop even
further, possibly into the single-digits in some areas. Fire
weather appears to be a potential hazard again, as LREF guidance
suggests that even zones as far east as the US-83 Corridor in
Northwest Kansas have a 40% chance or better to see RH values
meeting criteria for the hazard. NBM guidance does suggest that
wind gusts may be weaker on Wednesday than Tuesday, but still
shows a 1 in 3 chance across most areas of meeting criteria for
critical fire weather, with as high as a 90% chance in portions
of Yuma County in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed is once again highest in Eastern Colorado at around
30%. Warm and dry conditions continue on Thursday, with highs
forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s, and RH as low as the lower
teens. While critical fire weather may once again be possible,
forecast wind gusts max out around 30 mph. NBM guidance does
still show the highest chances for wind gusts meeting critical
fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado, in
the 60-85% range. Even so, NBM guidance often overestimates wind
gusts for the CWA, which lowers confidence in a Red Flag
Warning being needed Thursday to around 15%. Similar to Tuesday,
showers are possible both days, but have a low chance of
occurrence. The greatest risk again would be from dry lightning.



***Friday-Saturday***

Again, model guidance is a bit more uncertain by Friday,
specifically regarding the presence, timing, and intensity of a
shortwave trough moving south-southeastward out of Canada.
Precipitation may be allowed to return ahead of this shortwave, as
NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests up to a 45% chance for
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation between Friday and Saturday
combined. The greatest of these probabilities are east of the US-83
Corridor. Hotter temperatures may be allowed to return ahead of this
shortwave as well, especially with a deeper shortwave. Such a
solution exists with the 12z EC deterministic model, which shows
that temperatures in the 90s may be achieved ahead of a strong
shortwave system Saturday afternoon. These temperatures would be
around 10 degrees hotter than Saturday`s current forecast
temperatures in some areas, which are in the lower to upper 80s.
Even so, both the temperatures and precipitation experienced Friday
and Saturday are in question due to uncertainties with the
shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 418 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Patchy fog and low clouds will develop overnight and into
Sunday morning across the area. A period of IFR conditions is
expected at both KGLD and KMCK due to the lowered ceilings, with
reductions in visibility in fog also possible. Both the clouds
and fog will dissipate by around 15z with a return to VFR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024