713
FXUS63 KGLD 062226
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
426 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue this week, with slight
  cool down Wednesday.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Monday night.
  Winds are the primary threat, but may lead to blowing dust.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper ridge axis will extend from New Mexico to Nebraska today.
Afternoon convection in the mountains and Front Range will move
northeast into the Nebraska panhandle. Given the proximity to
the ridge and the storm motions, not expecting any thunderstorms
in the area today or tonight.

On Monday, the ridge axis will extend from the Texas panhandle
to Iowa, with increasing southwesterly flow over the Central
High Plains. CAMs show convection initiating after 21z primarily
in Colorado, although there is a secondary area along a weak
boundary in northwest Kansas that may also see some development
later in the afternoon. CAMs not in good agreement that the
boundary will even be there, so confidence is low for the
secondary area. Either way, Colorado storms will move into the
area Monday night. HREF mean shows weak instability of 500-1000
j/kg and deep layer shear ranging from 20 kts in Kansas to 40
kts in Colorado where flow aloft is strongest. This will result
in a severe wind and hail risk for Colorado in the afternoon
and early evening, but transitioning primarily to a wind threat
as they move into Kansas and Nebraska. Favored area for severe
storms will be north of Interstate 70. Showers and storms
continue overnight but much weaker and gradually dissipate near
or shortly after 12z Tuesday morning in eastern areas.

Frontal boundary will push through Tuesday morning, and by the
afternoon the area will be in a post frontal regime with east to
northeast winds. Convection will initiate on the front to the
south, but others will develop along the Front Range in the
afternoon. Zonal flow aloft will result in more of an easterly
storm motion, so Colorado storms will move in Tuesday night.
CAMs show best chances will be along and south of Interstate 70.
Environment will be weakly unstable at around 500 j/kg with
deep layer shear around 30 kts. Might see a severe storm or two
with those parameters, mainly in the early evening when
instability will be maximized, before loss of instability and
weakening occurs. Scattered showers and isolated storms will
persist through the overnight.

On Wednesday, the upper ridge reorganizes over the Four Corners
region, resulting in zonal to slightly northwest flow over the
Central Plains. At the surface, the old frontal boundary will
be well to the south near the Kansas and Oklahoma border area,
which is where the instability will be maximized and convective
initiation will occur during the afternoon. Surface-based
instability will be very weak north of the front, less than 500
j/kg, but MUCAPE does increase Wednesday night, with up to 1000
j/kg south of Interstate 70. A southwesterly low level jet
develops during the evening, but it is weak at less than 20 kts.
Nonetheless, associated isentropic lift may be enough for
scattered elevated convection to develop south of Interstate 70
through the night. With the expected weak instability and lift,
the probability for severe weather will be low, mainly confined
to localized wind gusts.

Temperatures will be above normal on Monday, followed by a
gradual decline Tuesday and Wednesday as the front makes its way
through the area. By Wednesday highs will be in the mid 80s,
which is near normal for early to mid September.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Thursday morning, a ridge looks to be overhead at 500-mb, with a
surface high to the east. At the same time, ensemble guidance is
consistent with a surface low across South-Central Canada and
portions of the Northern United States. This would favor southerly
surface flow across the forecast region. Forecast temperatures are
currently in the mid to upper 80s across the forecast region. NBM
guidance does suggest a 20% chance or greater across a large portion
of the forecast area that high temperatures will reach back into the
90s, with a near 50% chance across localized portions of the Tri-
State Area. However, in order for this to occur, winds and solar
heating would need to increase. LREF guidance suggests that there is
around a 50-60% chance that cloud cover will remain below 20%
coverage, with the NBM suggesting an 80-90% chance for the same. In
addition, the surface high to the east and surface low to the north
both look to be in favorable positions relative to the upper level
flow for intensification, which could enhance the southerly flow
across the forecast area. If these conditions can be met, hot
conditions may redevelop across the area Thursday.

By Friday, upper level troughing looks to be pushing into the United
States from the northwest. Winds are forecast to be out of the north
to northwest as the leading edge of a high protrudes into the
Central High Plains during the afternoon. Forecast highs are in the
low to mid 90s despite the favored northerly component to the
surface flow, as NBM guidance shows a 50% chance or higher that
winds will remain below 10 mph, particularly across Northwest
Kansas. Guidance is also in favor of low cloud cover, which would
allow solar heating to override the effects of the northerly surface
flow. The biggest point to note is that relative humidities are
forecast to drop into the lower 20s and possibly high teens across
portions of Eastern Colorado. This could indicate the possibility
for localized fire weather conditions, especially across Yuma County
in Colorado where NBM guidance suggests up to a 2 in 3 chance that
winds will reach or exceed 25 mph (one of the thresholds for fire
weather). This will be a trend to keep an eye on as we approach the
upcoming weekend.

Troughing is forecast to continue approaching the forecast area
going into Saturday. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s and lower
90s on Saturday ahead of the trough. Lee cyclogenesis is possible at
the leading edge of the trough as it crosses the Colorado Rockies,
which could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
Saturday evening and overnight. Severe thunderstorms seem unlikely,
as LREF guidance suggests that storms will only have a few hundred
J/kg of surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) to take
advantage of. All areas have a 30% chance or less of receiving
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation from these storms based on
24 hr precipitation guidance from the NBM.

Temperatures are expected to fall once the trough passes over the
forecast area, though the timing is very uncertain at this time. The
trough may pass through as early as Sunday, which is reflected in
the forecast highs of the upper 70s and mid 80s. However, as
long as the trough remains west of the forecast area, similar
conditions to Saturday could be expected. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast on Sunday as well, though chances
are not much better than that of Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM DT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. South to southeast winds, strongest from mid morning to
late afternoon, will gust up to 30-40 kts at times.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...024