895
FXUS63 KGLD 031710
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1110 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures, with highs in the 80s and low 90s
  forecast through Thursday.

- Chances for storms this afternoon and Thursday afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures and slightly higher chances for
  showers/storms return over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 139 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Observations early this morning show a broad pressure gradient at
the surface with winds generally under 10 mph. Clear skies have also
been observed across the region. The lighter winds and clear skies
are forecast to continue, with much drier air in place compared to
the prior few nights.

For today, the main feature of interest is an upper low/trough that
is moving south through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. Closer
to midnight, the trough was located around the Northern MN border,
but it is forecast to have moved south closer to the Ohio River
Valley. As it advances south, a cold front (currently located near
the Nebraska and South Dakota border) is forecast to push through
the Plains through the morning hours. The current forecast brings it
to just south of the area by the mid afternoon hours. However, the
colder air is forecast to lag behind the leading edge and the wind
shift, which will allow most of the area to warm into the 80s and
low 90s before the afternoon is finished. The warmest temperatures
are forecast to be south of I-70. As the lower pressure shift south
out of the area, the stronger pressure gradient on the backside is
forecast to allow for winds around 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph
during the afternoon. While the winds meet criteria for critical
fire weather conditions, relative humidity is forecast to remain
above 15%. So have not issued a fire product at this time, but extra
caution is still advised today.

The afternoon and early evening hours may also see a few rogue
storms, generally from McCook, NE to Leoti, KS and east. These
storms will be possible if the surface low and front haven`t cleared
the area by the mid-afternoon. If the surface features remain in the
area, they should provide enough lift to allow some storms to form
as moisture advects in with the surface features. While low chance
(20-30% chance), these storms could be severe if they do form. The
environment could have MUCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg, mid level lapse
rates close to 8 C/km, 0-6km shear around 30-40 kts, and downshear
vectors around 50-60kts. These forecast parameters suggest that a
storm could produce very large hail up to 2.5" and wind gusts up to
70 mph. The caveat is that the overall severe chance is less than 5%
as storms would have to form in the area and sustain for a little
while, especially with backed wind profiles. In summary, a strong
severe storm is possible for eastern portions of the area, but not
likely.

As we get into the late evening and overnight hours, the pressure
gradient is forecast to weaken, allowing winds to lower back below
10 mph. With a weak high pressure center moving through eastern
portions of the area, we are forecast to have slight easterly winds
and some low level moisture advection during the early morning
hours. For those east of Highway 25, low clouds and maybe some fog
could develop, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. The
rest of the area to the west should see clearer skies and
temperatures fall to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Thursday is becoming an interesting day. We are expecting another
cold front to sweep through the area. This will be enough forcing to
start off some storms, especially considering we`ll be under the
right exit regions of the 500 & 250 mb jets. Thursday looks to warm
up into the 90s for most of the area, providing more instability to
tap into. The NBM in showing less than 20 PoPs for Thursday but
forecaster confidence is 35-55% confidence in scattered to
widespread convection Thursday, mainly in the southeastern CWA.
There will be a severe potential, but confidence for severe storms
is less than 15%.

Friday will cool back down before an active pattern returns over the
weekend. The GFS is showing a strong low near Baja California moving
across New Mexico into the High Plains as another low moves across
the northwestern CONUS. Other models are showing the mid-week low
remaining near the Great Lakes and developing additional troughs all
around it, impacting the Great Plains. Either way, it looks to be an
active pattern for the upcoming weekend, but details are up in the
air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1110 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the entirety of
the TAF period. Winds will continue to strengthen during the
afternoon today, with sustained northerly winds between 15-20kts
and gusts up to 20-30kts. By 00Z-01Z however, winds will begin
to shift out of the east, then the southeast, while diminishing
to 10kts or below.

Otherwise, there`s a small chance for a few
showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, however chances remain
<20% for KMCK, so did not include in the TAFs. Some low clouds
and patchy fog will be possible after 06Z with the easterly wind
shift, however not expecting any impacts to the
ceilings/visibilities.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Melto