156
FXUS63 KGLD 140516
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1116 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some fog and stratus is possible Saturday morning; dense fog
  can`t be ruled out.

- Discrete cells Friday afternoon may eventually grow upscale
  into a cluster during the evening. Strong to severe storms are
  forecast.

- Strong to perhaps severe potential continues through the
  weekend. Tuesday may be a more widespread severe weather day.

- Above normal temperatures are likely to persist through the
  upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The watch for Yuma county has expired. No other changes to the
other watch in place through 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Similar to last night a cluster of storms is following the mean wind
to the ESE across portions of NW Kansas. A 2nd additional cluster
has also developed south of Interstate 70 and should also move to
the ESE as well. Continuing to think that wind gusts around 70 mph
will be the primary hazard especially if any bowing segments can
develop; hail up to ping pong ball size remains possible as well as
ample elevated CAPE around 3500-4000 j/kg remains in place. Do have
some concerns on hail size given the potential for numerous updrafts
in place so think it would have to take a dominant updraft for
the hail threat to fully materialize. The other factor to watch
as well will be very heavy rainfall leading to some flooding
potential given a moist environment remaining in place. Some
locales Thursday night from Hitchcock county down through Gove
county received 1-2 inches of rainfall last night so this strip
seems to be the "most" at risk for some flooding concerns.
Winds overnight are forecast to continue from the southeast as
moisture advection continues which may lead again to some fog
around sunrise, but will be dependent on how quickly this round
of rainfall moves out of the area. With the potential for
rainfall to continue through the night with redevelopment as
some subtle isentropic ascent presents itself int 305K level
will refrain for now for introducing fog into the forecast
given the conditional nature and low confidence in exactly
where the better potential may lie.

Saturday, moisture continues to stream into the area with the
potential for low 70 dew points moving into the eastern third of the
area. A overall fairly volatile environment looks to be in place
with very high surface and MUCAPE values exceeding 5000 j/kg and
wind shear of 35-40 knots according to the 00Z RAP. RAP is
suggesting a 700mb vort max perhaps and MCV emanating from
convection from Wyoming/Montana overnight towards the area. This may
be a source of lift for the afternoon for eastern portion of the
area should this set up a bit further west; another potential source
of lift would be approaching our convective temperature in the upper
80s to low 90s. If a storm where to form in this environment very
large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would all be on the
table as storms would be surface based given very low LCL`s. Latest
RAP also does suggests some increase in mid level moisture across
western portions of the area during the afternoon. A stout
700mb CAP is in place and given a lack of any obvious forcing
don`t anticipate any storms to develop but may need to keep an
eye on landspout potential given some low level curvature in
the winds and very steep lapse rates, if a boundary where to
become evident this threat would increase. A more pronounced
wave off of the Cheyenne Ridge may lead to the relative better
chance for storm development towards the Yuma county areas after
01Z. If this storm can survive then severe weather would be
possible however confidence is a little iffy at this time in
that. Some guidance is also suggesting that redevelopment via an
MCV and/or isentropic lift may occur overnight as well. Some
severe potential may be in play with that as elevated CAPE
remains in play as well.

As for temperatures I have brought down high temperatures a few
degrees from the previous forecast given the trend towards a more
moist environment with higher dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Sunday, the pattern looks to remain largely the same as the ridge
continues to push in farther from the southwest and the low over
Missouri slows exits to the east. The Goodland CWA looks to be on
the northeastern edge of the ridge, so we can still expect to see
some shortwave systems impacting the area, allowing us to see some
isolated, daily storms through Monday afternoon. This continues
until Tuesday evening when a large trough is expected to enter from
the Pacific northwest and push the high back south. This looks to be
our next good chance at storms and we have a 15% outlook from SPC
for this risk. As this trough pushes farther east, there will be
multiple waves of divergence that will promote storm development
through around Thursday night.

Around Friday morning, give or take a day, the high looks to move
back north, into the Great Plains, blocking us from the jet for a
good portion of the weekend. This will cause temperatures to climb
and keep any good chances at precipitation at bay. This will
increase the potential for critical fire weather conditions, so we
will be keeping a close eye on that.

High temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will be in the 90s, with
100 not out of the question. Wednesday and probably Thursday,
temperatures look to be capped about 7-10 degrees cooler, before the
high returns. When the high returns late next week, we can expect
mid 90s to low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Continuing to watch a cluster of storms turn to the ESE from
northeast Colorado and west Nebraska. Confidence is higher in
impacts to KMCK from this with very heavy rain and severe
winds main concern at this time; a little more iffy still for
KGLD which will be dependent on southward development along an
outflow boundary so will maintain the Prob30 for now. Dependent
on how quickly the rain moves out of the area fog and/or stratus
may develop Saturday morning as moisture continues to advect in
but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this
time. SSE winds are forecast to continue Saturday with some
gusts of 20-25 knots. Another potential for afternoon and
evening showers and storms but coverage remains less than 30%
confidence at this time so will not include in this set of TAFS.
There is however a signal for a LLJ for KGLD with LLWS so have
included that, the orientation of the jet will be dependent if
KMCK will need to eventually be included.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg