500
FXUS63 KGLD 290639
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1239 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms may continue through the night and early
  Wednesday morning. Very low chance of an isolated instance or
  two of nuisance flooding.

- Fog and patchy dense fog is forecast to develop across
  portions of the area this morning.

- Strong to possibly severe storms are forecast to move into
  eastern Colorado again this evening. A wind gust or two up to
  60 mph is again possible along with torrential rain with any
  storm. Coverage is forecast to be lesser than the previous
  days.

- A daily potential for late afternoon and evening storms,
  potentially severe, may continue through the rest of the work
  week. Thursday is currently the favored day for severe
  weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1233 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Mid level shortwaves are moving across the area and leading to
showers and storms. Easterly upslope flow is expected to continue to
keep the storms moving across the area assuming outflow doesn`t
eject out of them. I do have some concern for additional
redevelopment overnight with isentropic ascent in the 315 level
across NW Kansas. If this does occur then some at least nuisance
level flooding threat could develop. Forecast soundings show a very
saturated profile with 2-2.4 PWATS. Corfidi vectors again show
around 15-30 knots which is a bit quicker than what I would like to
see when it comes to flooding potential and is the only thing
keeping me from having a greater concern for flooding. With how
moist soundings are would not be surprised if somewhere has a
quick 2-4+ inches of rainfall east of Highway 27. Similar to
last night should rainfall wane for a period of time then fog
and stratus would become a concern. Should the redevelopment not
occur then fog and stratus would again be a concern similar to
Monday night and Tuesday morning as current RAP analysis shows
a surface high getting wedged into the area which would lead to
light and variable winds. Current thinking is that fog would be
in the 2-6sm range but some locally dense fog could again be on
the table with surface to 1 km mixing ratios around 6.

For the rest of the day, should the fog and stratus occur then
guidance suggests that it should be fully dissipated around 15Z.
Our humid air mass is forecast to remain in place along with
highs in the 90s across the area. The RAP is the outlier which
keeps thick stratus across the majority of the day which would
result in high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Not
completely buying this scenario at this time but is interesting
and may depend on what occurs with convection Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Overall a fairly similar setup to what
occurred on Tuesday. The difference is that a weak surface
trough is forecast to move into the area during the afternoon
and increase winds to around 15-20 mph sustained. During the
afternoon and into the evening another shortwave is forecast to
move off of the Rockies and onto the Plains. This is forecast to
lead to strong to perhaps even a severe storm or two across
eastern Colorado with damaging winds again the primary hazards
and heavy to torrential rainfall. Do have some concerns of the
coverage of storms however as seen on 00Z REFS paintball as the
RRFS and a few other guidance has the storms sending out
outflow and weakening them halfway across the Colorado counties.
HREF and some other guidance has them reaching the KS Highway
27 corridor before doing the same. The severe threat does not
look quite as favorable but some wind gusts up to 60 mph may be
possible. Should the storms occur will again have to watch for
torrential rainfall which may lead to more nuisance flooding
across eastern Colorado. 310 and 315K Isentropic analysis does
suggests that there could be some potential for redevelopment as
well overnight again but appears to be dependent on how the day
plays out so will again be something to keep an eye on. Similar
to the previous nights if the storms do not form then another
strong signal for fog and and stratus is seen. There may be
potential for a bit more widespread dense fog potential due to
better coverage of surface to 1km mixing ratio differences
across the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

***Thursday***

GEFS and EC 500-mb height ensembles still show a broad
high/ridge across much of the United States Thursday morning. At
the same time, a shortwave trough traveling around the ridge
anticyclonically is forecast to be overhead. A surface low at
the leading edge of the shortwave will allow a cold front to
traverse the Great Plains throughout the day. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible at the leading edge of the cold
front, though are currently not expected to be severe. LREF
guidance suggests only a 25% chance or less that sfc-500mb wind
shear will exceed 30 kts, with the highest chances in Southwest
Nebraska and along US-283 in Kansas. GFS and EC model soundings
support this solution, showing less than 30 kts of 0-6 km wind
shear in this zone. However, latest GFS and NAMNST model
soundings do show an inverted-V up to about 3 km, which may
indicate microburst potential with storms. Confidence in storm
coverage is low at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance suggests only up to a 1 in 3 chance to receive greater
than 0.1 inches of rain across the forecast area. Confidence in
severe weather occurring is around 5% Thursday.

***Friday/Saturday***

Thursday`s cold front looks to begin eroding the strong ridge
across the Great Plains, moving the ridge axis westward over the
Four- Corners Region by Friday morning. Flow at 500-mb over the
forecast region is favored to be northwesterly to northerly
through Saturday. As such, highs are forecast to slightly drop
into the low to mid 90s Friday, and upper 80s to lower 90s
Saturday. A surface high in association with the ridge looks to
be to the north of the forecast area, and may establish
southerly winds across Eastern Colorado Friday evening, with
easterly flow across Western Kansas and Southwest Nebraska. As
such, showers may develop across Eastern Colorado Friday. Again,
coverage is uncertain at this time, as NBM 24 hr precipitation
guidance suggests less than a 25% chance for greater than 0.1
inches of rain across most of this zone. However, strengthening
of the shortwave trough to the east may support the development
of a 500-mb jet streak over the region. This is reflected in
LREF sfc-500mb wind shear guidance, which shows a 40-60% chance
of wind shear greater than 30 kts across Eastern Colorado. If
thunderstorms are able to take advantage of this, they may be
allowed to become severe. Even so, confidence in severe weather
Friday evening is about 5% due to uncertainty in the coverage.

***Sunday-Tuesday***

The ridge axis is favored to be overhead once again Sunday as a
strong 500-mb trough traversing Southern Canada and the
Northern United States pushes it east. Conditions would warm up
again into the mid and upper 90s Sunday, and upper 90s to lower
100s Monday. However, conditions look to be drier. GEFS 850-mb
guidance shows a weak low in the U.S. Southeast. This would
create northerly flow across the Texas coasts and prevent
moisture from returning to the forecast region. Relative
humidities (RH) may drop into the lower 20s to upper teens
during this period. While this does not meet critical fire
weather criteria (RH<15%), NBM guidance shows a broad region
across Eastern Colorado and Southwest Nebraska with a 50% chance
or higher of experiencing wind gusts over 30 mph both Sunday
and Monday. Considering that fuels are drier across this region,
the potential development of critical fire weather conditions
may be something to keep an eye on going into the weekend.
Additionally, a surface low associated with a trough to the
north may produce a few showers along a cold front Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1101 PM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Noticing a very similar setup to what occurred with stratus and
fog last night as a surface high is getting nudged into the
area. Based on this have concern for IFR and LIFR ceilings and
visibilities. Most fog should it develop should be in the 2-6sm
range but some patchy visibilities down to one quarter mile are
possible. Lingering light rain may disrupt fog potential at MCK
so wasn`t quite as aggressive with that as I was for GLD. Any
fog and stratus is forecast to dissipate mid to late morning.
Winds are forecast to become easterly Wednesday afternoon
sustained around 15kts. Am watching for another threat for
showers and storms affecting GLD towards the latter part of the
period but confidence is not high enough to include a PROB30 at
this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg