268
FXUS63 KGLD 290858
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
258 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A low chance for a late afternoon/evening severe storm will
  persist over the weekend. Wind gusts up to 65 mph and quarter
  size hail are the main threats.

- Warming trend heading into the weekend, with highs in the
  upper 90`s to lower 100`s on Sat-Sun.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

No significant change(s) from prior forecast reasoning and
expectations. Expect well above normal temperatures through
Sunday, hottest this afternoon when air temperatures and heat
indices are forecast to reach 100-105F east of Hwy 83. Near
advisory heat in the east has been addressed via weather story
graphic. Temperatures on Sun will be similar to today, albeit a
few degrees cooler in eastern CO and west of Hwy 83 in KS-NE.

Severe Weather Potential [Today]: Scattered storms forecast to
develop along the Cheyenne Ridge and portions of the Colorado
Front Range late this afternoon may track eastward into portions
of northwest KS and southwest NE this evening into tonight.
Weak deep layer shear and weak low to mid-level flow beneath the
upper level ridge over the Central Plains and a typical late
summer environment characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong DCAPE and deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles suggest
that (1) brief, localized wind gusts up to ~65 mph are the
primary hazard and (2) that localized severe downbursts could
occur with essentially any high-based convection.

Severe Weather Potential [Sunday]: Modest SW flow aloft will
overspread the Rockies as the upper level ridge over the Central
Plains shifts east toward the MS River Valley. Further east, on
the High Plains, deep layer shear will remain on the low end of
the spectrum. Weak low and mid-level flow will persist, with
little change in the thermodynamic environment. Expect a severe
weather potential similar to today and Friday, perhaps with a
somewhat greater potential for marginally severe hail in eastern
CO. Thunderstorms are likely to initiate/develop along the
higher terrain (similar to previous days) and track downstream
into the Goodland CWA. Low confidence in thunderstorm coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The long term period is shaping up to be fairly consistent with
unseasonably hot temperatures and evening storm chances due to
our region being in a persistent southwest upper-level flow.
Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures are forecast in the 80s to
upper 90s. Wednesday through Friday, highs are currently
forecast in the high 90s with LREF ensemble members showing at
least a 20% chance of high exceeding 100 degrees F for our
Kansas and Nebraska counties.

Our persistent southwest upper-level flow will send several
embedded shortwaves, bringing precipitation chances each evening
Monday through Friday. Monday is looking to be out best chance
for precipitation with Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) from
30-60%, increasing from east to west. Models are showing a
marginally unstable environment with less than 1000 J/Kg of
CAPE, around 30 knots of shear and mid-low level lapse rates
less than 7 C/km. Model soundings are showing precipitable water
(PWAT) values greater than 1 inch and overall skinny CAPE
profiles, so heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible
with severe or sub- severe storms. Small hail and strong winds
could be a concern with stronger storms if they are able to
form. Tuesday onward, evening PoPs are around 20% for the area
with low confidence in severe weather occurring.

Despite unseasonably hot temperatures, fire weather concerns
are minimal through the long term period. Relative humidity (RH)
values are forecast above 20% for the CWA. Winds will remain
overall light with gusts maxing out around 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
both terminals. SSE to SW winds at 8-13 knots will become light
and variable by late morning to early afternoon as a surface
trough in CO shifts eastward over the Tri-State Area. Light and
variable winds are expected to persist through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Vincent