760
FXUS63 KGLD 222046
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms are expected during the late afternoon and
  evening hours today and Thursday. Localized wind gusts up to
  65 mph and locally heavy rainfall are possible on both days.

- Triple digit temperatures are likely to return to most of the
  area this weekend. Heat indices in the mid-100s are possible
  Saturday through Monday, increasing the risk for heat related
  illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today-Tonight: Surface high pressure anchored over the Upper
Midwest will help maintain breezy ESE to SSE low-level flow
across the majority of the Tri-State Area today. Expect sensible
weather conditions similar to, albeit several degrees warmer
than, yesterday, with highs ranging from the lower 90`s in
northeast portions of the area to upper 90`s in southwest
portions of the area, perhaps 100F in Tribune. While a
pronounced upper level ridge persists over the region, the core
of the ridge has shifted further south, over the Southern Plains
(TX-OK), resulting in a less-suppressed convective environment
compared to yesterday. Weak SW to W flow aloft persists. Recent
(07/22) 12Z runs of the HRRR and NAM NEST continue to suggest
that low-level convergence and ESE-SE upslope flow on the east
and northeast periphery of a well defined lee cyclone in CO will
lead to late afternoon high-based storm development along the
Colorado Front Range, Palmer Divide and southeast CO, in an
environment characterized by marginal instability, weak low-
level flow and weak effective deep layer shear. With this in
mind, expect convection to be unorganized and slow-moving in
nature. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles and seasonably strong
DCAPE (1400-1800 J/kg) will, nonetheless, support a potential
for brief, localized wind gusts up to ~65 mph with any deep
updrafts. HRRR and NAM NEST simulated reflectivity forecasts
suggest that convection emanating from the Colorado Front Range
and Palmer Divide will slowly track east into far western Kit
Carson/Cheyenne counties ~01Z (7 pm MDT), that storm coverage
will be greatest between 02-07Z (8p-1a MDT) and that storms will
largely be confined to eastern CO (west of Hwy 27).
Environmental conditions become less supportive of convection
with eastern extent from the CO-KS border, especially after
~02Z, as convective inhibition rapidly increases after sunset.

Thu-Thu night: Synoptically similar to today, albeit with
modestly stronger WNW flow aloft on the eastern fringe of an
amplifying ridge over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies. Expect
sensible weather conditions similar to today. Precipitation
chances will, once again, be tied to upstream development along
the CO Front Range, Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa, suggesting
that locations west and south of Goodland are more (or most)
likely to see precipitation. Given that late evening and early
morning convection over and upstream of the Tri-State Area may
modify environmental conditions, low confidence persists
w/regard to thunderstorm coverage and evolution. Inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles and seasonably strong DCAPE will, once
again, support a potential for localized wind gusts to ~65 mph.
With relatively stronger WNW flow aloft over the region, a
somewhat greater damaging wind potential may exist if convective
evolution leads to clusters or linear organization and cold
pool consolidation.

Fri-Fri night: Guidance indicates that the amplifying ridge
over the 4-Corners will expand eastward across the Rockies and
Central/Southern Plains. Expect dry conditions and light winds
with highs in the mid 90`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 239 PM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

GEFS and EC 500-mb height mean-spread guidance is supportive of a
longwave upper-level ridge centered across the High Plains for the
entirety of the long term period. The feature appears strong enough
that shortwave troughs from the Aleutian Islands will be redirected
northeastward before they encroach into the United States. However,
broad surface lows in association with these troughs look to favor
southerly surface flow across the forecast region at least through
Sunday night. Hot conditions appear favored over the weekend, with
highs forecast in the mid 90s to lower 100s Saturday, and upper 90s
to mid 100s Sunday. Heat index values in the mid 100s are possible,
especially Sunday along and east of Kansas Highway 25 where dew
points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are possible. NBM guidance
suggests over a 90% chance for much of Northwest Kansas and
Southwest Nebraska to experience temperatures over 100 degrees
Sunday afternoon. Confidence in a Heat Advisory being needed Sunday
is around 30%. In addition to the hot weather, dry conditions are
forecast as well. Relative humidities (RH) are forecast to be low,
especially on Sunday when they drop into the upper teens across
portions of Eastern Colorado. Even so, critical fire weather
conditions are not yet a concern, as wind gusts are forecast to max
out in the low to mid 20 mph. NBM guidance suggests a 20% chance or
less across Eastern Colorado that wind gusts will meet critical fire
weather criteria (25 mph or greater). As such, confidence in a Red
Flag Warning being needed across this zone is less than 5%.


GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread guidance shows a stationary low
developing across portions of Utah and Colorado Monday. This may
allow for showers and thunderstorms to return to the area Monday
through Wednesday. NBM 24 hr precipitation guidance shows the
highest chances to receive greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation
across Eastern Colorado, with some areas over a 40% chance each day.
Thunderstorms are not favored to become severe during this period,
as GFS and EC model soundings show 0-6km shear maxing out around 30
kts. However, it may be important to note that GFS soundings are
showing a deep inverted-V profile up to nearly 500-mb. If
thunderstorms could occur with this sounding profile, microbursts
would be possible, with a chance of experiencing severe winds.
Confidence in severe weather occurring is about 5% for each day
Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures in the mid 100s may continue
into Monday as well. NBM guidance suggests between a 70-90% chance
for temperatures to rise above 100 degrees. Confidence in a Heat
Advisory being needed Monday is around 15%. High temperatures begin
slightly dropping on Tuesday into the mid 90s to lower 100s, and low
to mid 90s Wednesday, which would dramatically decrease the
likelihood of further Heat Advisories.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 950 AM MDT Wed Jul 22 2026

GLD: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR conditions associated
with scattered thunderstorms this evening (~02-06Z), VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF period. SE
winds at 15-20 knots with gusts to 25-30 knots are expected
through the afternoon. SE winds will back to the ESE and
increase to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots shortly before
sunset (01-02Z) and persist for several hours before decreasing
to 15-20 knots overnight. 15-20 knot E to SE winds will prevail
thereafter, through the remainder of the 18Z TAF period.

MCK: Aside from a potential for sub-VFR conditions associated
with scattered thunderstorms late this evening and overnight
(~04-09Z), VFR conditions will otherwise prevail through the TAF
period. SE winds at 13-18 knots will occasionally gust up to 25
knots this afternoon. Winds will back to the ESE around sunset
and decrease to 10-15 knots late this evening and overnight.
10-15 knot E to SE winds are expected to prevail through the
remainder of Thu morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Vincent