012
FXUS63 KGLD 150738
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
138 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures in the 90s to low 100s to start the week (hottest
  on Tuesday) before slightly cooler temperatures in the
  70s/80s mid week.

- Daily chances for showers and storms begin Tuesday during the
  afternoon to evening hours. Some storms may be strong to
  severe especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 137 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

This morning, a shortwave ridge will build in, allowing the
Tri-State area to warm into the upper 90s with a few places
breaking 100 degrees. The temperatures will be aided by
southerly winds in the 15-20 kts range, but 25 kts gusts may
occasionally pop up. Around 20Z, a 500 mb shortwave trough will
bring in a surface cold front into the western CWA. Convection
is expected to start firing as the cold front enters the area.
The convection looks to start off as a few isolated to scattered
storms near Flager. Over the following couple of hours, more
storms will fire along the cold front, and by 0Z, a broken line
of storms will extend from west central Nebraska deep into the
CWA. How far south the line of storms will extend is still a bit
of a question. Currently, there is at least 50% confidence
storms will reach down to I-70, 30% confidence they will reach
U.S. 40, and 20% confidence they`ll extend past the southern
borders of the CWA. However, the better shear and lift will be
in Nebraska. This means there is a higher likelihood of severe
weather in the northern CWA.

The best areas that have the highest chance at seeing severe
weather will be north and east of Idalia, CO between 0-3Z. SPC
is highlighting wind as the main threat with these storms,
especially in our Nebraska counties. There is a hatched outlook
for wind Red Willow and Hitchcock counties, meaning there is a
15-20% chance of 65+ kts gust occurring. For these kinds of
winds to form, the storms along the line would need to become a
QLCS or MCS rather rapidly. Is the storms stay scattered and the
line remains broken, winds of 50-60, maybe 65 MPH may be
possible. If these stronger (60+ MPH) winds form, patchy blowing
dust should be expected to reduce visibility down to under a
mile. Hail will also be a concern. Maximum hail size, based
upon 8-10 C/km lapse rates, 30-35 kts EBWD, and 1,000+ J/kg CAPE
would be around 1-1.5 inches. However, due to the profile of
the CAPE (long and skinny), PWATS of 1.2-1.4 inches, LCLs over 3
km, inverted V soundings, and hot low level temperatures, the
potential for SPLASHy (Storms Producing Large Amount of Small
Hail) is fairly high. With that, we could see some stones around
1-1.5 inches, but <0.5 inch accumulating hail seems more
likely. Textbook parameters for a brief landspout are barely
being met, but confidence for landspouts is low because the
front will be moving perpendicular to its orientation, and
moving around 25-35 kts.

The severe threat looks to end around 3Z with lingering storms
exiting around 6Z. We can expect stratus to move in behind the
front, once the storms clear. The stratus will keep us from
getting cold fast, especially in the southeastern CWA. Near
Yuma, expect lows around 60 Wednesday morning, but Hill City
will only cool to around 70. Patchy to locally dense fog cannot
be ruled out, but confidence is less than 10%.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Moving through the rest of the week, the upper level ridge moves
further across the Great Plains while an upper trough begins to move
across the the Northwest Contiguous United States (CONUS). The moist
air mass moving in behind tomorrow`s cold front should linger
through Friday when the upper level pattern becomes more zonal once
again. We have daily chances for showers and storms through the
period during the afternoon to evening hours as shortwaves move over
the area. Friday and Saturday have lower confidence (20% chances) as
the upper high over the Southeast CONUS brings a return of the zonal
flow to our area. The Weather Prediction Center has the area
outlooked with a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Wednesday-
Friday. Should we have storms move over the same areas day after day
we could run into some flash flooding concerns towards the end of
the week. With the current drought conditions, we should be able to
soak up a decent bit of water though. Wednesday and Thursday look to
be our much welcomed cooler days with highs in the mid 80s to lower
90s Wednesday and in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday. Friday
onward is looking at highs climbing back into the 90s each day.
Overnight lows each night will fluctuate around the mid 50s to upper
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Expect LLWS tonight from the south at 35-40 kts around the
200-500 feet AGL height. There is a chance some gusts around 30
kts could mix down to the surface before sunrise, but they will
be sporadic. As the sun rises, the low level jet will weaken
and the inversion will erode. We will see southerly winds pick
up in the mid morning, being fairly similar to yesterday.

Around 0Z, both KGLD and KMCK will see a potential of strong to
severe storms moving in from the west. KGLD has about a 15-25%
chance of seeing these storms while KMCK has a 30-40% chance of
seeing the storms. These look to be run of the mill high based,
High Plains storms, so expect erratic winds and visibility
reductions if you run into a storm. Storms look to leave the TAF
sites between 4-6Z, but we could see IFR ceilings by 12Z
Wednesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...CA