524
FXUS63 KGLD 262326
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
426 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather and near normal temps around Thanksgiving.

- Strong N winds will develop in the wake of an Arctic cold
  frontal passage Fri night into Sat, strongest (30-40 G 55 mph)
  Sat morning. A few snow showers may accompany the frontal
  passage early Sat morning (prior to sunrise).

- Below normal temps this weekend and early next week, coldest
  on Sun-Mon when highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark
  and morning lows may approach the single digits with wind
  chill readings as low as 0 to -5F.

- Light accumulating snow possible late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today-Tonight: Light southerly flow will develop over western
portions of the area today as 1032 mb surface high pressure over
central KS (at 16 UTC this morning) slowly shifts ESE-SE toward
MO-AR (this afternoon). Expect temperatures similar to
Tuesday.. albeit slightly warmer (mid-upper 40s) in the west and
slightly cooler (lower-mid 40s) in the east. A strong (125-150
knot) NNW upper level jet over the northern and central Rockies
(this morning) will shift east toward the Northern/Central
Plains this afternoon and evening. Cyclonic shear vorticity on
the eastern periphery of the eastward advancing NNW jet.. and
somewhat more focused/localized ascent in the thermally indirect
left-exit region of said jet.. will foster increasing mid-upper
level cloud cover over western NE-KS this aft and eve.
Current/recent runs of high-res guidance (HRRR/RAP/NAM NEST) do
not indicate any measurable precipitation. Forecast soundings
and simulated reflectivity forecasts are indicative of virga
(flurries, at best).. mainly along and north of Hwy 36 between
~22-04 UTC (~3-9 pm MST). A clearing trend will follow, late
this evening.. with overnight lows in the lower-mid 20s.

Thu-Thu night (Thanksgiving): Pleasant/benign weather. Expect
mostly clear skies, light winds and near-average temperatures in
the subsident wake of the eastward advancing NNW jet and
amplifying east CONUS trough.

Friday: Guidance indicates that an upper level wave progged to
move ashore the Pacific Northwest on Thu will initially progress
east toward the northern Rockies (Thu night), then abruptly dig
SSE toward the central Rockies (Fri) -- after an interaction
with additional shortwave energy rapidly progressing S-SSE
through British Columbia/Alberta -- fostering the development of
a pronounced cyclone in the lee of the central Rockies. Expect
a warming trend associated with strengthening low-level
southerly flow / warm advection on the eastern periphery of the
developing cyclone, with breezy S winds and highs in the lower
to upper 50s, warmest in CO -- while low-level southerly flow
will increase in magnitude with eastern extent from the CO-KS
border (i.e. the breeziest south winds will be along/east of Hwy
83).. guidance suggests that pervasive low ceilings (stratus)
will inhibit diurnal heating/mixing in eastern portions of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

Below normal temperatures likely Sat-Tue, coldest on Sun-Mon.

Friday night-Sat night: Long range guidance indicates that the
aforementioned upper wave will dig SSE to the OK Panhandle (Fri
night) then rapidly progress east (with an associated mid-
latitude cyclone) across the Central/Southern Plains on Sat. The
progressive nature of the cyclone (and the Tri-State area`s
position relative to the upper wave and cyclone) suggests
little, if any, potential for precipitation -- aside from a
fleeting period of strong low-level frontogenesis coincident
with the Arctic cold frontal passage between ~midnight and
~sunrise Sat. At this time, the primary forecast concern is
strong northerly winds in the wake of the front. Guidance
presently indicates that strong cold advection and abrupt
pressure rises in the wake of the Arctic front will at least
partially coincide with diurnal heating (sunrise and noon Sat)..
when 35-45 knot northerly low-level flow will be present. If
this is the case, one would expect sustained winds ~30-40 mph
with gusts up to ~55 mph. From a prior experience standpoint, in
the context of an abrupt Arctic cold frontal passage.. guidance
tends to under-do wind.

Sun-Mon: Long range guidance continues to suggest a potential
for precipitation (snow) associated with a progressive shortwave
traversing the 4-Corners, Rockies and Central/Southern Plains
late Sun into Mon. At this range, confidence in precipitation
coverage, location and amounts cannot be ascertained with much
confidence. Broadly speaking, the progressive nature of the
system would suggest relatively low precipitation amounts.. and
the synoptic setup/pattern would suggest light winds.

Tue-Wed: Expect a rapid warming/moderating trend as the Arctic
airmass exits the region and a low-level southerly return flow
pattern ensues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 415 PM MST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated over KGLD and KMCK terminals
through the period. Winds will be variable for both terminals shifting
out of the southeast this evening before shifting to the
west/northwest between 07-09Z before shifting gradually through
the day to the southeast by 00Z tomorrow. Speeds should be light
around 5 kts over the next 24 hours. Skies are expected to
clear out by 15Z tomorrow with a few high clouds possible during
the late afternoon hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KMK