098
FXUS63 KGLD 252000
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as hot through the weekend.

- A little more promising for widespread rainfall Wednesday
  night, Thursday night and Friday night.

- Severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday and Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Tonight...mid and perhaps some high level clouds move through from
the west with dry weather expected. Low temperatures are forecast to
be in the lower 60s to around 70.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...a fairly well organized weather system
moves off the Colorado front range and into far eastern Colorado by
late afternoon, supporting 20%-40% chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Overnight, this system continues moving east across
the remainder of the forecast area with 40%-50% pops currently
advertised. PWAT values increase into the 1.4-1.9" range with
general storm motions to the northeast around 20 mph, supporting
some beneficial rainfall amounts. High temperatures are forecast to
be in the 90 to 95 degree range with low temperatures in the 60s.
There will also be east to southeast winds gusting 20 to 35 mph
during the day, strongest west of Highway 25.

Thursday-Thursday night...showers/thunderstorms east of Highway 25
in the morning move away with 30%-50% chances for thunderstorms
across the area in the afternoon. Thunderstorm chances increase into
the 50%-70% range during the evening before this system moves east
and away from the area after midnight. PWAT values hover in the 1.3-
2.0" range during the day and into the evening before slowly
decreasing after midnight. 0-6km winds remain from the west-
southwest at 20 to 25 mph, supporting another chance for beneficial
rainfall. High temperatures are currently forecast to be in the
upper 80s to middle 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the
lower 60s to around 70.

Friday-Friday night...another weather system moves off the Palmer
Divide and into far eastern Colorado adjacent counties west of
Highway 27 in the afternoon with pops in the 20%-40% range,
continuing east overnight with 50%-60% chances for
showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures currently range from the
upper 80s to upper 90s with low temperatures in the middle 50s to
middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The upper-level high pressure system looks to remain in place over
Texas for the long-term. A 250mb low pressure system over the Great
Lakes will allow a ridge to extend from the high pressure system and
cover the High Plains. This will cause the flow aloft to slowly
shift from zonal to southwesterly over the weekend.

Some weak 500mb shortwaves are possible in the afternoon hour
Saturday and Sunday, but nothing very strong is showing up in the
guidance. The weak shortwaves could provide us enough forcing for
diurnal showers and storms Saturday and Sunday. Sunday looks less
likely for convection due to the 250mb ridge amplifying.

Guidance is showing a pretty strong signal that another trough will
work into the northwestern CONUS Monday, causing stronger
southwesterly flow during the mid-day Monday. This trough could
cause enough forcing, and remove the ridge just long enough, to
cause some moderately organized convection Monday afternoon and
evening, but there is a lot of uncertainty this far out. After the
trough moves through the area, likely late Monday night, zonal flow
returns.

Temperatures over the weekend will generally remain in the 80s to
low 90s. Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will be int he 90s to low
100s. Monday has potential for being the next very hot day with heat
indices approaching 103F. Overnight temperatures will only cool
into the 60s, with Saturday night being the coolest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1045 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northerly wind gusting to 20kts at taf issuance will continue
this afternoon, subsiding below 10kts while veering to the
northeast overnight. Wednesday morning, east winds gusting up to
25kts are forecast.

KMCK...VFR conditions are currently forecast through the period.
A west wind up to 10kts at taf issuance will veer to the
northwest this afternoon, increasing a bit with gusts to 20kts
possible. Tonight, northerly winds around 10kts veer to the
northeast. Wednesday morning, winds veer to the east at speeds
around 12kts with a few higher gusts. Stratus and sub VFR cigs
are possible a few hours either side of 15z Wednesday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ004-016.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...99