444
FXUS63 KGLD 312243
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
443 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 90s and low 100s are forecast through the week.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight, becoming more
  widely scattered through the rest of the week.

- Limited wind and hail threat with stronger storms through the
  week, but overall severe risk will be low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Upper ridge now centered over the southeast CONUS will move very
little during the period. Southwest flow will continue over the
Rockies and adjacent plains. Embedded waves will result in
daily chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances appear to occur tonight, while
coverage diminishes somewhat for the middle of the week as it
becomes more difficult to identify upper forcing. Also appears
to be some drier air moving into western areas on Thursday as
the lee trough moves to about Highway 27, resulting in dew
points in the 40s and decreasing precipitable water. Shear and
instability show some minor day to day variations, but will be
sufficient for a marginal severe risk for wind and hail with any
stronger updrafts which may develop, although severe coverage
appears it will be very limited.

Temperatures show little variation in the period and will
continue to be above normal. Some triple digits will be possible
in northwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday closer to the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Friday through Monday, the upper level ridge continues to be
persistent over the Southern United States with some amplification
towards the north over the weekend before stalling again. A strong
low pressure over the Pacific Northwest coast may allow some small
embedded shortwave troughs to pass through as well as southwesterly
flow from Baja California. This is forecast to bring in chances for
showers and warmer temperatures in the beginning of the period.
Diurnal heating looks to be the main driving force for these
showers. Friday afternoon, Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) has
15% chance for showers over the northwestern and 20% chance over the
eastern portions of the County Warning Area (CWA). There is high
confidence (70%) that it will be sub-severe as there are very low
values of CAPE and an unfavorable wind shear profile.

Throughout the remainder of the period, chances for rain will be low
as the upper level ridge starts to amplify to the north. PoPs have a
chance for showers at 15% in the northern half and 10% in southern
half of the CWA.

Temperatures will start out in the mid to upper 90s and are expected
to decrease towards the low 90s by Monday. However, there is low
confidence (30%) that temperatures Sunday will be in the mid to low
90s as NBM 75th to 25th percentile spread starts to increase with a
5 degree difference and could potentially keep temperatures into the
upper 90s. Uncertainty grows due to the possible showers later in
the weekend and Monday could lean to the cooler side. Heat index
values may reach into the 100s on Sunday if highs reach into the
upper 90s as moisture is being fed from both the southeast and
southwest with dew points being in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 433 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Scattered thunderstorms moving in from the southwest may briefly
impact KGLD this evening with gusty winds and reductions in
visibility and ceilings. For KMCK, confidence is less than 20%
of a thunderstorm impacting the terminal from late evening
through overnight. Otherwise, VFR expected to prevail at both
locations through the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/Moeller
AVIATION...024