193
FXUS63 KGLD 302335
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
535 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory issued for tonight. Fog chances continue
  through Monday morning.

- 40-60% rain chances return today and Saturday morning.

- Early next week may see strong northwesterly winds and
  precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 302 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Due to high confidence in dense fog returning to southwestern
Nebraska tonight, into Sunday morning, and collaborating with
neighboring offices, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
this area. There is also 70% confidence that the Advisory will
need to be expanded down to Cheyenne county in Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

An 850 mb high over the Ohio River Valley along with a broad low
coming over the Rockies is funneling moisture into the High Plains
from the Gulf. This moisture advection is expected to persist
through the weekend. The moisture advection will work to keep
temperatures mild and skies mostly cloudy, as well as keep the fog
returning each night.

Up at 500 mb, we are currently sitting under weak southwesterly
flow. A broad shortwave trough has been moving across southern
Kansas late this morning, moving northward, towards the CWA. This
trough will bring in some precipitation chances, mainly in the
eastern CWA. The first wave of rain is forecast between 6-12Z Friday
morning northeast of a line from Gove, KS to Benkelman, NE. This
wave has a 30% chance of forming, but the Friday afternoon
precipitation has a 60% chance of occurring. The bulk of this
precipitation will be east of the Colorado border, increasing
farther east. Prime time for rain will start at 21Z this afternoon.
Due to the broad nature of the 500 mb low, precipitation has at
least a 30% chance of persisting along and east of KS 25
through 3Z Sunday (Sat evening). Precipitation is expected to be
light and accumulations are not forecast to exceed 0.25 inch.

Highs through the short-term are forecast to be in the mid 50s and
60s while lows will be in the 40s to low 50s. As mentioned above,
the inflow of moisture will work to keep us saturated and overnight
and morning fog remains likely through the short-term. As it stands,
there is 50% confidence that dense fog returns tonight for most of
the CWA. The main limiting factor for fog is the precipitation.
Where moderate to heavier rainfall is occurring, fog will likely be
washed out. Fog likely returns Sunday and Monday mornings too,
however confidence in dense fog is 45% and 30% respectively.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 312 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main forecast highlights for Monday are wind and precipitation
potential.

We are forecast to be in a weak, mostly southwest flow aloft with a
weak jet streak overhead. Previous model runs showed a much stronger
jet streak over our area. There is also a weak trough just west of
the Rocky Mountains with a second deeper trough digging over the
Pacific. A strong cold front is forecast to move in from the
northwest setting the stage for a potential high wind day for the
county warning area (CWA). A surface low will set up sometime Monday
afternoon, but modes diverge on its location, creating uncertainty
in the forecast. ECMWF ensembles have the low setting up somewhere
in Nebraska while GFS ensembles forecast the low in northwest Kansas
or southwest Nebraska. Canadian ensembles are split roughly 50/50
between the ECMWF and GFS solutions. Another notable difference in
ensembles is the GFS is showing a much deeper surface low, which is
supportive of a tighter pressure gradient and stronger wind
potential. So while there is uncertainty in the low location, we
have all the necessary ingredients for a high wind day, the
intensity is the main question. Where the low sets up and how strong
it becomes will determine the severity of the winds. Sky cover will
be another factor. Clear skies will allow stronger synoptic
winds to mix down to the surface, while cloudy skies will serve
as a barrier for stronger winds to make it to the surface.

Winds are expected to pick up in the afternoon after the cold front
from the northwest moves through. The entire CWA should expect to
see windy conditions, but the counties along and west of the
Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska borders will see the strongest winds with
gusts up to 60 mph possible. The eastern CWA could see gusts up to
40 mph.

Precipitation wise, showers and storms are expected to fire off in
the afternoon following the morning cold frontal passage. Southwest
flow aloft will send several embedded shortwaves and associated
vorticity maxima across the CWA Monday afternoon. Probability of
Precipitation (PoPs) are around 50-75%, increasing from west to
east. The western CWA will likely receive just rain, while the
eastern CWA has enough instability to support a weak thunderstorm or
two.

Blowing dust will be something to keep an eye out for Monday. Lapse
rates are not supportive of dust being lofted, and the recent
stretch of dense fog will help keep the ground saturated.
Precipitation will also help limit the potential for blowing dust,
although PoPs for eastern Colorado are only around 50%. Areas that
miss out on Monday`s precipitation will be a concern for blowing
dust if they can dry out enough.

Tuesday is forecast to be another windy day as another jet streak
scrapes the CWA. While not as strong, wind gusts up to 50 mph are
still possible for the western CWA. This will really depend on what
the upper-level flow does Monday and where the jet sets up. Models
diverge on the pattern aloft after Monday, so the jet streak could
shift south of our area, diminishing the wind threat. Blowing
dust is also on the table, but how Monday pans out will
determine the threat.

Temperatures for the long term period are fairly consistent.
Monday`s highs are forecast in the 50s to 60s with potential for the
far eastern CWA to see some 70s. Tuesday through Friday, expect high
temperatures in the 50s with lows in the 30s to 40s. Our eastern
Colorado counties could see lows around freezing through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 519 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Much like previous nights IFR to minimum conditions will likely
occur for both KGLD and KMCK. Ceilings are expected to begin to
drop to 100-600 ft around 6Z, and last through the majority of
the TAF period. Beginning 05-06Z, fog is forecast to roll in and
should reduce visibilities to 1/4-1/2 mile. Light rain is also
forecast for both terminals beginning 06-07Z, and lasting till
late tomorrow morning. Around 18-19Z, ceilings should begin to
lift to around 1000-1500 ft. Winds for the period are forecast
to stay light and mainly from the southeast.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory from 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening
     to 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...Holdren