353
FXUS63 KGLD 142300
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy SW winds expected across portions of the area through early
  this afternoon, strongest east of Hwy 83 (Oakley/Hill City)
  where sustained winds ~25-35 mph may gust up to 50 mph before
  weakening during the late afternoon.

- A severe storm or two is possible this afternoon, mainly east
  and south of Colby, KS between 3-9 PM CDT. Localized wind
  gusts up to 70 mph are the primary threat. An instance of dime
  to quarter size hail is also possible. Moderate (50-60%)
  confidence in storm development and timing.

- An early morning cold frontal passage will bring much cooler
  temperatures to the area Tue-Tue night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong upper system moving through the Northern Plains will
provide weak synoptic scale lift further south, but enough for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. A
stationary front located long the southern part of the area
(Hill City to Leoti), will also provide additional lift. Main
hazard today will be wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and perhaps
localized blowing dust, with a hot, deeply mixed environment
promoting favorable DCAPE. Instability will be maximized near
the front, up to 1500 j/kg, but deep layer shear in that area
will only be around 20 kts. Nonetheless, can`t rule out a brief
stronger updraft producing hail up to quarter size near the
front. Storms move out fairly quickly as the upper support fades
by around 04-05z. Overnight, cold front associated with the
northern system will enter southwest Nebraska by around 09z and
should be through the remainder of the area by 12-13z. Moisture
pooling along the front may result in a narrow band of fog and
low clouds that accompany frontal passage.

Tuesday will be mostly to partly cloudy with rising heights in
the afternoon as the upper ridge rebuilds from the south. This
will result in dry conditions through the day. However, there
will be a chance for showers late Tuesday night with a favorable
southwest low level jet and associated isentropic lift.
Confidence is somewhat low as some CAMs suggest that
precipitation may remain just south or east of the area. MUCAPE
overnight is forecast to be 500-1000 j/kg, so not expecting any
severe threat at this time.

For Wednesday and Thursday, southwest flow will develop around
the ridge centered over Arkansas. Embedded waves will result in
afternoon thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado and
the Front Range which move into the area both nights. Some
afternoon development is possible on Thursday in northeast
Colorado as well. Instability and shear forecasts are weak and
the probability for severe weather will be low. QPF forecasts
are generally less than a quarter of an inch.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be much cooler behind the front
with highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures quickly rebound
on Wednesday and Thursday however with highs in the 80s on
Wednesday and lower 90s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

On Friday, an upper level low-pressure system over the Middle
Rockies will be sliding towards the east over northern CONUS
that will help bring in a cold front overnight and into Saturday
morning. Sunday onward, there is some uncertainty about the
upper-level ridging over the U.S. and Canadian border. On
Monday, guidance is still uncertain with the ridging to the
north, but there is consistency that embedded shortwave troughs
would be going through the area. This is forecast to bring
cooler temperatures and slight chances for showers. Temperatures
Friday will be the warmest during the period with afternoon
highs being in the mid to upper 80s. From Saturday onward,
temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s as the cold front
moves in and a possible secondary cold front Monday. There is
medium confidence (40-55%) that temperatures would remain in the
70s.

Showers are also possible with the uncertainty of the upper-
level pattern. As the cold front moves through Friday night and
into Saturday morning, there is high confidence (75%) for
overnight rain. However, there is some uncertainty with the
timing of the cold front as deterministic guidance shows the
front being further west than ensemble guidance.

On Sunday morning, with the confidence in the upper-level
pattern starting to deteriorate, confidence for showers also
begins to decrease heavily (75% to 30%) and would likely occur
in the early morning hours. On Monday, there could be some
showers favoring south of I-70 as possible embedded shortwave
troughs could move through the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 454 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR to IFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Current
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain well away from the
TAF sites. The pre-frontal trough which moved through KGLD has
caused gusty winds, but those have since become light. However
winds for both sites are rather tricky to forecast due to the
variability in the winds behind the slowly moving pre-frontal
trough.

Close to 12z the cold front will move into KGLD from the
northwest. As the front moves in winds will become gusty and IFR
ceiling will move in. The ceiling will gradually lift through
the morning, and should become low VFR around 18z. Winds will
gradually decline through the day.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...JTL/Moeller
AVIATION...JTL