157
FXUS63 KGLD 021857
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1257 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures, with highs in the 80s are forecast
  through the Thursday.

- Chances for storms Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

- Cooler temperatures and slightly higher chances for
  showers/storms return over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

As expected, the 850 mb low that was keeping moisture in the Tri-
State area as moved off to the southeast, taking the low-level
moisture with it. This will lead to clear conditions dominating the
region for the next 24-30 hours. Today, areas that never had cloud
cover will warm into the mid 80s while locations that held on to the
clouds through most of the morning will only warm to around 80. With
the dry conditions and being under fairly laminar flow, PoPs are
less than 10 until Wednesday evening. Overnight tonight, lows look
to drop into the 50s.

Tomorrow, an intensifying upper-level low will be descending out of
Canada over the Great Lakes region. This is forecast to extend a
trough across the Great Plains, pushing a cold front through the
CWA. Most guidance is showing this front moving through in the
morning and not really bringing a lot of cold air with it. This will
allow the area to warm into the mid 80s to 90 with warmest
temperatures in the southern CWA. With the front moving through
earlier in the day, and the still limited moisture, precipitation
looks to be limited to the southeastern 1/5 of the CWA, mainly along
and southeast of a line from Norton to Leoti, KS. Storms would be
the precipitation type to occur if precipitation does occur. Best
time for convection will be between 18-00Z. We cannot rule out the
potential for a severe storm to form, but hazards look to be mainly
limited to 1 inch hail and 65 MPH gust.

Following the front tomorrow, northwesterly winds will speed up with
sustained winds likely around 10-20 kts and gusts around 20-30 kts
with some locations potentially seeing some gusts up to 40 kts.
Eastern Colorado looks to have the stronger winds. In this same
area, we are looking at RH values dropping into the 20s and recent
information from fire fuels partners indicate there are some cured
fuels. We are not looking at hitting critical fire weather
conditions, but Wednesday may prime this area for more fire danger
on Thursday.

Overnight Wednesday, after some 850 mb moisture has returned to the
area thanks to a surface high to the southwest of the CWA, we could
see some stratus in the eastern CWA. This will help keep
temperatures from cooling too much, likely the mid to upper 50s. We
cannot rule out the potential for fog again Thursday morning.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Thursday is becoming an interesting day. We are expecting another
cold front to sweep through the area. This will be enough forcing to
start off some storms, especially considering we`ll be under the
right exit regions of the 500 & 250 mb jets. Thursday looks to warm
up into the 90s for most of the area, providing more instability to
tap into. The NBM in showing less than 20 PoPs for Thursday but
forecaster confidence is 35-55% confidence in scattered to
widespread convection Thursday, mainly in the southeastern CWA.
There will be a severe potential, but confidence for severe storms
is less than 15%.

Friday will cool back down before an active pattern returns over the
weekend. The GFS is showing a strong low near Baja California moving
across New Mexico into the High Plains as another low moves across
the northwestern CONUS. Other models are showing the mid-week low
remaining near the Great Lakes and developing additional troughs all
around it, impacting the Great Plains. Either way, it looks to be an
active pattern for the upcoming weekend, but details are up in the
air.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1048 AM MDT Tue Sep 2 2025

By 18Z, both KGLD and KMCK are expected to be VFR and remain
that way through the period. There is a 15% chance KMCK sees
MVFR ceilings around 11-15Z tomorrow. Winds throughout the day
will remain fairly weak, although an isolated gust or two of
15-20 kts is possible in the afternoon hours. Through the
afternoon, winds will generally favor the northeast, but will
work in a clockwise fashion through the late afternoon into
tomorrow morning before becoming northwesterly and gaining
speed. Tomorrow midday and afternoon, expect some gusty
conditions, likely in the 20-30 kts range.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA