919
FXUS63 KGLD 272226
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
426 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms forecast to develop along and north of I-80
  in NE this afternoon may evolve into a cluster that tracks
  southward into portions of northwest KS this evening. Severe
  storms capable of producing 70 mph winds and a few instances
  of quarter to ping pong ball size hail are possible, mainly
  north of I-70 and east of Hwy 25 between 8 PM - 1 AM CDT.

- Near average temperatures today followed by a warming trend,
  with highs peaking in the upper 90`s to lower 100`s Saturday
  and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Upper ridge remains over the Four Corners today resulting in
northwest flow over the Central Plains. CAMs show convective
initiation occurring later this afternoon near the Black Hills
and northern Nebraska. Environment in that area will be weakly
to moderately unstable but highly sheared with up to 45 kts of
0-6 km shear. A supercell is likely to develop and move south
through this evening. However, both instability and shear weaken
across southwest Nebraska, throwing some doubt on how far south
any supercell will manage to survive. CAMs suggest it will
weaken and dissipate north of the Kansas border late this
evening. Nonetheless, will maintain the messaging for the severe
threat since supercells can be persistent. Confidence is low on
the severe threat this far south.

On Friday, the upper ridge will flatten out a bit resulting in
zonal flow across northern Colorado and the adjacent plains.
Will see an embedded wave move through in the afternoon with
scattered convection developing in the mountains and Front Range
and moving east. The environment will be weakly unstable with
deep layer shear less than 20 kts across Colorado but increasing
to near 30 kts at the Kansas border. Storms will have a
difficult time making into the area during the evening, with
only low probabilities, less than 20%, of showers or an isolated
thunderstorm. Severe storms are not anticipated.

Over the weekend, the ridge will shift east into the southern
plains on Saturday and amplify into Missouri by Sunday. This
will result in a southwest flow over the Central Rockies and
adjacent plains. In this pattern would expect scattered afternoon
convection to develop in the higher terrain to the west and
move into the area at night. However, both shear and instability
are weak and the probability of severe weather will be low.

Temperatures will be much above normal through the period, with
mid 90s on Friday and upper 90s to lower 100s Saturday and
Sunday. Afternoon relative humidity will be falling below 20% at
times, but winds are expected to be light and no fire weather
concerns are anticipated.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

For much of next week we don`t see too much of a difference
compared to this week, with nearly daily chances (at least 15%)
of showers/storms. On Monday we start the week on the back side
of an upper level ridge with southwest flow aloft and a 850-700
mb area of high pressure over the Four Corners region.
Throughout the day, most mid to long range guidance is favoring
a weak cold front pushing south across the area, which should
make the environment more favorable for showers and storms
during the evening to potentially overnight hours. In regards to
the severe potential, so far CAPE remains a concern as a
limiting factor with GFS guidance favoring less than 500 J/kg
over our Colorado counties. Winds shear is still somewhat
favorable with 25-30 kts of surface-3 km shear and ~30 kts of
effective shear. With precipitable water values around 1 in, we
could see more rain showers than storms if any activity does
develop and move into the area.

Tuesday through Thursday, weak shortwaves in the mid to upper levels
of the atmosphere will work to strengthen a near-surface trough
on the lee side of the Rockies. These shortwaves may help with
the rain/storm chances as we move into the middle of the week.
So far guidance is favoring more isolated/pop-up style activity,
but confidence in showers or storms developing is fairly low
(<20%). Models, including the NBM, are leaning more towards
chances tapering off during this time frame.

As the precipitation chances go down, the temperatures are expected
to increase throughout next week. Monday and Tuesday we are looking
at highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s, with the temperatures
"coolest" west of the Colorado border. Wednesday and Thursday
temperatures are expected to warm up a few degrees more with highs
in the 90s and possibly reaching the triple digits east of Highway
83. Overnight lows will be mild in the 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 422 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Main aviation concern for both KGLD and KMCK will be the
potential for a cluster of thunderstorms to move through this
evening. Storms have developed in northern Nebraska this
afternoon and will continue to move south through this evening.
Latest models show them merging into a cluster as they approach
the Kansas/Nebraska border area around 03z, then gradually
weakening toward the Interstate 70 corridor around 06z. Wind
will be the main hazard as the storms move through, with gusts
of 60 mph or higher possible. Another possible scenario, though
looking less likely at this time, is that the storms weaken
before they enter Kansas.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...024