477
FXUS63 KGLD 251724
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1124 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms Wednesday afternoon
  and evening, generally north of a line from Hill City, KS to
  Tribune, KS. Winds of 50-70 MPH are possible with the storms
  today.

- A Flood Watch has been issued for Yuma to Red Willow counties
  due to recent rainfall and the potential for heavy rainfall
  from the storms today to cause flash flooding.

- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected
  Friday afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 357 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

This morning, an upper-level trough is crossing over the Rockies and
is creating a bit of a confluence zone as this trough meets with the
high pressure system that`s been sitting over the eastern CONUS.
This has been producing our ongoing precipitation overnight.
Scattered showers and storms look to become more limited around the
10 to 17Z timeframe with the northeastern portions of the CWA still
having 20-30 PoPs through the morning. A fairly narrow (~30 miles)
corridor of precipitation may continue through most of the day,
extending south-southwest across the area. Likely area for this band
of precipitation to set up will be around a line from McCook, NE to
Tribune, KS. Damaging/severe hail or winds are not expected with
these showers and storms this morning, but there is a mild flooding
risk with this precipitation. More information about the flooding
concern can be found in the hydrology section below.

Thanks to the confluence, we will see winds through most of the
column be from the south-southwest during the bulk of the day.
Surface winds will be south-southwesterly too, unless they are being
impacted by any convection, in which case they will be pretty
variable. With these southwesterly winds, we can still expect winds
to warm us up to the mid 80s to low 90s for most of the area. The
northwestern CWA can expect the a cold front to moving in from the
north-northwest in the mid day, which will cap temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s. As this cold front starts moving in, our main
chance of storms move in with it. CAMs are showing two initiation
zones of convection, starting around 20-22Z. These lines run pretty
much parallel to each other. The easterly, weaker line will be
firing off of mid-level divergence, much like the earlier
precipitation has been firing off of. Heavy rain and winds up to
around 50-65 MPH would be possible from these storms. The western,
stronger storms have the greater severe threat, especially as the
front collides with the first wave of storms. Wind will once again
be the main threat with these storms; we could see a few gusts of
70+ MPH if these storms tap into winds at the 200-300 mb level, but
gusts of 50-65 will be more common. Hail up around 1 inch would be
possible, but CAPE is not overly impressive on this line. Heavy rain
will also be a concern. There is a 20% chance the precipitation from
this morning will continue and drain the atmosphere of most of the
instability it would need to fire any severe storms. There is also a
20% chance the cold front and the mid-level divergence will meet up
sooner than expected, in which case the severe storm potential
increases dramatically. If these happens, minimal CAPE would fail in
comparison to the forcing and deep shear that would be present.
Hazards if this occurs would include a higher likelihood of 70+ MPH
winds as would 1.5-2 inch hail.

If storms are able to form, we expect the line(s) to be oriented as
precipitation has been over the past 24 hours: northeast/southwest,
and moving to the northeast. This provides a training storm flooding
threat. More information found below in the hydro section. The
severe threat looks to end around 4-6z with lingering showers ending
by 10Z. This will allow temperatures to cool into the upper 50s to
mid 60s behind the front.

Don`t expect a quick synoptic pressure rise behind the front,
because the trough broadens out before moving to the northeast
Thursday morning. This means clouds will be slow to clear Thursday
morning, but they will eventually clear out in the midday and allow
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s during the day. There
is a 20% chance of some additional storms forming in southwestern
Kansas and making it up into the southeastern portions of the CWA,
but the severe threat is pretty low. There is a 10% chance the far
western CWA will see some decaying storms off the Palmer Divide in
the late afternoon/evening, but once again the severe threat is
pretty low with winds of 50-60 MPH being the main hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025

The flow aloft remains weak with upper ridging predominant.
There does appear to be weak forcing on Saturday moving through
the zonal flow atop the ridge which combined with intense
surface heating may pop a few isolated afternoon and evening
storms. However, storms should be pulse in nature and poorly
organized due to lack of shear. The upper ridge is forecast to
amplify over the Rockies through early next week with a gradual
shift to more of a weak northwest flow over the plains. This
will allow a shallow cold frontal passage sometime on Sunday,
followed by post frontal upslope early next week. Some
thunderstorm development may occur along the front on Sunday,
then again Monday and Tuesday on the higher terrain to the west
in the upslope regime, but deep layer shear remains weak and
will limit storm organization and coverage. Temperatures remain
above normal on Sunday, in the low to mid 90s, but return to
near normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Light rain showers will continue to be in the vicinity of GLD
through around 21z. These showers will remain light enough to
not cause any visibility restrictions, and prevailing VFR
conditions are expected through at least 00z. Around 03z,
conditions look favorable for a line of thunderstorms to move in
from the Front Range and begin impacting GLD and MCK. The
primary impact from these storms is currently expected between
03z and 06z. Strong wind gusts and brief heavier rainfall that
could produce periods of MVFR visibility restrictions are the
primary concern from any thunderstorm activity that moves
through. After 06z, winds will shift to the northwest as a weak
frontal boundary pushes to the east and southeast. The threat of
thunderstorms will end and prevailing VFR conditions will once
again take hold. There could be some patchy fog development near
MCK around 12z, but the probability of fog is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  PG

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 AM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

As of the 8Z MRMS Pass 2 QPE, the northern half of Yuma county has
seen up to 2.5-4 inches of rain. These QPE amounts increase into
northern Dundy and Chase counties in Nebraska where along the CWA
border up to an estimated 4.5 inches have fallen. Across the
northern halves of Hitchcock and Red Willow counties, up to an
estimated 2.25 inches have fallen. This rain has increased CREST
Soil Moisture into the 30 to 50% ranges with a few locations as high
as 55%. With persistent could cover today, very little drying should
be expected. The 0Z HREF is highlighting this area to have a 50-70%
chance of receiving another inch of precipitation this afternoon.
Considering the potential for training storms with the storms this
evening, there is an enhanced risk of flash flooding this afternoon.
Locations generally along and north of Joes, CO to Palisade, NE have
the highest threat. For these reasons, a Flash Flood Watch has been
issued for 21-08Z this afternoon/evening.

Outside of the northern portions of the area, there is a smaller (25-
30%) chance of flash flooding for a narrow corridor stretching from
Decatur to Greeley counties. The multiple round of rain early this
morning will have moistened up the ground a bit, but CREST soil
moisture is still showing around 10-20% for these areas as of 0940Z.
The main risk lays in the potential for two rounds of training
storms to move over this area today. The areas at a greater risk in
this second area will be Thomas and Decatur counties, and adjacent
counties.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight
     for COZ090.
NE...Flood Watch from 3 PM MDT /4 PM CDT/ this afternoon through
     late tonight for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA/Grigsby
HYDROLOGY...CA