315
FXUS63 KGLD 050801
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
101 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few flurries and/or sprinkles are possible today mainly
  along and north of Highway 36. A small window for light snow
  is also possible across western Yuma county during the
  afternoon.

- Breezy to gusty winds Friday and Saturday with the strongest
  winds perhaps up to 50 mph on Saturday.

- A 20% chance of a rain/snow mix Saturday morning with some
  potential visibility reductions due to the gusty winds. Little
  to no accumulation is currently forecast.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1256 AM MST Fri Dec 5 2025

Northwest synoptic flow continues across the area tonight as a
surface high backs into the area. Mainly clear skies are ongoing
across the area but have had some transient freezing fog across
Greeley, Wichita and southern portions of Gove county but is
forecast to end by 2am CT as mainly westerly downsloping wind
occurs across the area.

For today, slightly warmer temperatures are forecast with highs
in the 40s. A weak cold front is forecas to move through the
during the mid/late morning hours leading to some weak lift and
an increase in clouds in the 700-600mb level. Continue to think
that sprinkles/flurries is most likely as dry air remains in
place near the surface but have added in some 15% snow/rain
chances across western Yuma county where the 03Z RAP13 shows
slightly stronger omega around 3mb which is co-located with
increasing TQ indices of 16- 18 which suggests some convective
nature may be present and is supported by the 03Z RAP13
soundings showing around 5 j/kg of CAPE in the same layer as
well; which would support a slightly better chance of some
precipitation during the afternoon hours. At this time leaning
more towards rain showers but can`t discount out lower wetbulb
temperatures as seen on the 00Z NAM which would support a mix or
a brief changeover to all snow. Overall though not anticipating
any hazards at this time.

Saturday, has the potential for some nuisance impacts but still
quite a bit of variability remains. A low pressure system is
forecast to develop over in the northern vicinity of the
forecast area. ECMWF- AIFS supports a good 50/50 split of the
location of the low being across Kit Carson county or north of
the area just south of Interstate 80 which is where
deterministic guidance continues to place the low. At this time,
I`m favoring the northern track which is where the GEFS spread
supports the location. This will end up leading to gusty to
strong winds across the area gusting 50-55 mph as the low
deepens through the morning hours. If the low can deepen some
instead of being more broad then would not be surprised a rogue
wind gust to 60 mph can occur as well.

The other part of the forecast to keep a close eye on is
precipitation potential. Modest omega around 8-10 microbars is
seen across the majority of the area in the 800-600mb layer
along with some of the lift being located in the dendritic
growth zone. The biggest question mark at this time is if it can
overcome some drier air near the surface to reach the ground. I
strayed away from the NBM and introduced 15-24% chances of
precipitation across the area with northwest portions seeing
precipitation from 12-15Z and central and eastern 15-18Z. At
this time thinking that rain, snow or a rain/snow mix is most
likely but there is a corridor of 850mb warm air advection that
the RAP and the NAM are picking up on which concerns me for
warm nose potential resulting in a period of sleet or freezing
rain. Confidence in this is only around 10% at this time
however so will refrain from introducing that wording into the
forecast. Should rain or snow occur little to no accumulation is
currently anticipated at this time. Some visibility reductions
to blowing snow as the snow is falling may be possible however.
The biggest question mark at this time is how much dry air will
be at the surface and how will that affect what occurs at the
surface. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in
the upper 40s to low 50s but I for sure have concerns that they
may still be to high even after lowering them especially if
cloud cover remains thick.

A cold front on the back end of the low is then forecast to move
through the area Saturday night and into Sunday morning. A large
spread for high temperatures remains especially for the eastern
portions of the area due to variations of how far south the
front will progress and how quickly it will move east of the
area. High temperatures for the day are currently forecast in
the mid 30s across the east to the low/mid 40s across the west
where downsloping may become more prevalent dependent on the
timing of the front. Dry conditions and mainly sunny skies are
currently forecast for the day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

The overall pattern does not change much in the long term
period, with a general northwest flow over the central CONUS
over the west coast ridge. The series of weak embedded
shortwaves continues, with a weak looking wave on Monday and a
stronger one on Tuesday. The operational GFS does show some
light snow and stronger winds Tuesday night, but has little to
no support from any of the ensembles at this time, so will take
a wait and see approach. More shortwave energy comes through
Wednesday and Thursday, and all of the ensemble averages, GFS,
ECMWF and Canadian, showing some light snow potential, mainly
for areas north of Interstate 70. Amounts, however, are very
light at less than a half inch at this time. GFS continues to
suggest some wind potential as well, but less so from the other
models.

As for temperatures, there will be a warm up on Monday and
Tuesday with westerly winds, highs in the 50s both days,
possibly around 60 on Tuesday. Then cooling off again for
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 948 PM MST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions remain forecasted for each terminal for this TAF
period. Winds are forecast to veer to the northwest as the day
goes on as winds gust 20-25 knots from the late morning through
the afternoon before shifting back again to the southwest by the
end of the period. Some LLWS is forecast for MCK through 15Z as
jet streak moves through the area.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Trigg