526
FXUS63 KGLD 061947
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1247 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- NW winds peak by 2 PM MT.  Gusts of 50 MPH or less expected.

- Fog late tonight into Sunday morning west of the KS/CO
  border.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming trend
  Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler weather may return after Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows the ridge over the West Coast and a
low over Southeast Canada.  Northwest flow continued between the two
features.  Within the flow a subtle short wave trough had moved
through the forecast area during the morning.  Clouds and possibly
flurries/sprinkles had accompanied it.  Behind a pre-front trough
northwest winds were gusty for the western half of the forecast area
where the inversion had eroded earlier, allowing the stronger winds
to reach the ground.

For the rest of the day the northwest winds will peak in intensity
by 2 PM MT, then decline, becoming light by sunset.  The strongest
winds will be over East Central CO where the inversion eroded
earliest in the day, and the stronger winds are closer to the
surface.  East of there winds will decline due to the inversion
remaining in place or the stronger winds being higher above ground
due to the decreasing elevation.

Tonight a surface high will move through behind a weak cold front.
After midnight there may be weak surface convergence with the winds
behind the surface high, along with moisture advection.  Models have
this occurring west of the CO/KS border. Visibility may fall to
less than a mile in the fog. Looking at different model
soundings, the saturated layer where the fog should form is
either quite shallow, or not there at all. This raises doubts
about the thickness of the fog, and if the fog will actually
form. The environment is favorable for fog to form given the
weak convergence with moisture advection. Confidence for fog to
form is 50%. Confidence for visibility to be less than a half
mile in the fog is 30%.

Sunday morning the fog should end an hour or two after sunrise.  The
sky should be nearly cloud free due to subsidence over the forecast
area and then laminar flow moving in later in the day.  Weak warm
air advection will occur during the afternoon as the cooler air mass
shifts east of the forecast area.  Westerly winds will be light to
breezy, with the breezy winds over East Central CO.

Sunday night laminar upper level flow continues over the forecast
area.  Winds will be light from the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

Monday a subtle upper level short wave trough moves over the
forecast area.  At the surface a trough accompanies it, turning the
winds to the northwest.  Large dew point depressions are seen in the
soundings with the trough passage.  As such, don`t expect much more
than high clouds to accompany the trough passage.

A similar weather pattern continues for this part of the forecast,
with northwest upper level flow over the High Plains.

Tuesday`s high temperatures continue to warm ahead of the next cold
front on Wednesday.  Despite the unseasonably warm temperatures,
this will still be 10 degrees below record values.

Tuesday night a stronger upper level short wave trough will move
through the flow over the Midwest, remaining northeast of the
forecast area.  Precipitation chances accompanying it continue  to
remain north of the forecast area.  A cold front will move through
the forecast area.  However, the cold air advection does not last
long.  By Wednesday afternoon warm air advection begins as a surface
low forms over the High Plains ahead of the next cold front passage.
The warm air advection will serve to dampen the cooling affect of
the cold front passage.

Thursday another upper level short wave trough moves through the
Plains.  The cold front associated with it may be as strong as the
one from Tuesday night, possibly stronger; not sure at this time
range.  Model consensus also keeps the precipitation with this
trough north of the forecast area.  Winds behind this trough passage
could be breezy.  However model consensus data does not show that at
this point, which is reasonable given the time range.

For both days models have slowed down the progression of the upper
level short wave troughs.

After Thursday models disagree regarding the timing of another upper
level short wave trough; will it move through the upper level flow
over the Plains, or will it move east and become absorbed into the
closed low over Southeast Canada.  The jet stream will be slightly
further east if the short wave trough becomes part of the closed
low.  If the short wave trough instead moves southeast over the
Plains, that will push the jet stream more westerly.  This would
mean a favorable route for cooler air to move over the forecast
area, and potentially chances for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1017 AM MST Sat Dec 6 2025

VFR to MVFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Breezy winds will
continue until 23z or so then become light. Around 9z low clouds
may move over KMCK, lasting until 16z or so. Some model data is
suggesting ceilings may fall to 500 ft or so. Confidence is not
high enough at this point to place a mention of that in the TAF.
Meanwhile KGLD may also have lower visibility toward 12z. Fog
should develop near or west of the site. This may persist until
16z or so. Some model data is suggesting visibility may fall to
IFR conditions, or that the fog will not form and there will
instead be MVFR or IFR ceilings for KGLD. With most model data
indicating fog occurring near KGLD, decided to trend the
forecast that direction at this time.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...JTL