253
FXUS63 KGLD 020613
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1213 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of the area tonight as
  localized rainfall amounts may reach 3.5 inches.

- Low confidence in severe weather chances Tuesday, but somewhat
  better, though marginal, chances on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

In the near term, scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight hours with a 30 kt southerly low
level jet and favorable isentropic lift combine with a weak
shortwave at 500 mb traversing the area. Lingering MUCAPE is
500-1000 j/kg and deep layer is 50-60 kts, so cannot completely
rule out an isolated storm capable of producing small hail.
Seeing some evidence of new development along Highway 36 from
Yuma County into Cheyenne County, Kansas, and models suggest
this area will continue to expand eastward and eventually
southward through the overnight. Flash Flood Watch continues in
that area with the potential for training and locally heavy
rainfall in the same areas that received rain earlier.
Precipitation will finally move out of the area to the east
between 12-15z.

For Tuesday afternoon, weak to moderate instability will develop
once again by peak heating with 1000-1500 j/kg forecast by REFS
mean and HREF mean. 0-6 km shear will be somewhat lower compared
to yesterday, ranging from 30-35 kts north of I-70 to 20-25 kts
south. Synoptic forcing will be weak, with the main shortwave
displaced to the north moving through the Dakotas. The local area
only gets brushed with weak height falls on the order of 1-3
DAM in the afternoon and evening. CAMs show most convection
further north as expected and perhaps an isolated storm or two
along the Front Range that make little to no eastward progress.
Convection in the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles may produce outflow
the eventually reaches the area in the evening and manages a few
isolated storms. The 3-km NAM is much more bullish in that
scenario compared to the HRRR and RRFS, which show little to
nothing. As a result, overall confidence in coverage and the
severe threat for Tuesday is low.

On Wednesday, the upper low that has been meandering in Montana
the last several days will finally begin to move out. It will
force a cold front southward that stalls out in the Nebraska
panhandle southwestward into northeast Colorado along I-76
Wednesday afternoon. The front will be the main focus for
convective initiation, but a prefrontal trough extending
southward from the front roughly along Hwy 83 into Kansas may
also be another focusing mechanism. East of the trough will see
moderate instability of up to 2000 j/kg, while west of the
trough instability will drop off to 500-1000 j/kg. Deep layer
shear will be 15-25 kts, highest in northern/eastern areas.
Synoptic forcing will be on the weak side, but do see some
height falls in the afternoon ahead of a shortwave trough moving
into western Wyoming as the southern ridge retreats. The
parameters suggest only a marginal risk for severe storms in the
afternoon and evening, mainly along and east of the surface
trough with the better instability, with perhaps a storm or two
capable of producing hail up to quarter size, but a somewhat
higher risk of damaging wind gusts as DCAPE will be favorable at
1500-2000 j/kg through 00Z before weakening. Any severe threat
should wane through the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Wednesday, the upper trough that had been over the Western United
States is forecast to finally push east and move through the Plains.
It is forecast to move slow enough that the cloud cover should
linger through the day, keeping temperatures more in the 80s. With
the moisture and synoptic support moving through, storms are
forecast to fire up again in the area. Severe weather would be
possible, but likely not widespread with the cloud cover hindering
instability generation.

Thursday through Saturday, the area is forecast to be under
zonal/ridging flow. This should lead to relatively mid conditions
with little change in air mass. Temperatures are forecast to reach
the 80s and low 90s with winds around 10-20 mph. Storms are possible
each day, though the lack of larger synoptic forcing is keeping
chances lower around 10-25% (favoring the east where there will
likely be more moisture).

Late in the weekend, another upper trough is forecast to move into
the Western United States and push east towards the area. This could
lead to conditions similar to today and tomorrow with more moist and
warm conditions ahead of the trough. This should bring back better
chances for storms and severe weather, as long as the trough doesn`t
lag to the west. Otherwise, the benign conditions would continue a
few more days with slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
overnight hours. Short term models and radar trends suggest
these will impact KMCK at some point, but more likely to stay
north of KGLD. However, may see a period of low clouds at KGLD.
Confidence is on the low side regarding both rain chances and
low ceilings due to impacts from the convection which models
will not get exactly right. General trend through the morning
will be for the precipitation to move out with just lingering
mid and high clouds through the rest of the day. Thunderstorm
chances Tuesday afternoon and evening will be on the low side
and may not develop at all.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 807 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Another round of precipitation is expected to occur overnight. An
additional 0.25-1 inch with localized areas seeing up to 3.5 inches
if storms train over the same location. Southwestern Nebraska and
northwestern Kansas are the most likely to see these high
precipitation values. Rainfall during the afternoon and evening
monday moistened up this area with a few tenths of precipitation,
and is still ongoing as of writing this. A Flash Flood Watch has
been issued in preparation of the potential for overnight Flash
Flooding. Flash flooding is more difficult to spot overnight, so be
extra cautious.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001>004.
CO...None.
NE...Flood Watch until 7 AM MDT /8 AM CDT/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...024
HYDROLOGY...CA