199
FXUS63 KGLD 040711
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1211 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for rain this evening and tonight south of U.S. 40.

- Temperatures near to slightly below normal through the end of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1210 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Current observations have a the upper low that has been impacting
the area the last few days moving away to the northeast, while a
small upper ridge is moving in from the west. At the surface, a weak
pressure gradient is in place over the area, helping to keep the
winds below 10 mph. With the light winds and clearer skies from the
moisture moving on, temperatures remain forecast to cool to near or
below freezing for most of the area. Those south of I-70 in NW
Kansas may be able to stay more in the mid to upper 30s with
dewpoints currently in the mid 30s.

The daytime hours are forecast to start with the ridge in place over
the area, keeping the surface pressure gradient and winds weak. A
few high clouds are forecast to be moving over as a trough nears
from the west, leading to a mix of sun and clouds. With this,
temperatures are forecast to not change much from yesterday, with
highs in the mid to upper 50s. As the day progresses and the upper
trough nears, a surface low is forecast to develop on the lee of the
Rockies to the southwest of the area. It should then slide southeast
through the late afternoon and evening hours. As it does so, rain
showers and maybe a storm or two are forecast to develop. The
favored area is those along and south of Highway 40, and will most
likely occur between 5pm and midnight. With that system moving
through, cloudy skies are then forecast overnight. While the cloud
cover should help to keep temperatures a bit warmer, cold air behind
the system is forecast to still drop temperatures in the 30s.

Thursday is forecast to be a little cooler behind the system with
highs in the low to mid 50s. This will likely be added by initial
cloud cover that should burn off as the day goes along. Otherwise,
with the area on the back side of the upper trough and some broader
ridging forecast to take over, there`s not much else to Thursday.
Winds should be a bit stronger from the north around 10-20 mph. The
overnight hours are forecast to get cold as the winds lighten and
skies remain clear. Temperatures should drop into the 20s and low
30s, giving us a more solid taste of Autumn.

Friday is forecast to be one of the more milder days as we likely go
from broad ridging aloft, to weak troughing. This weak troughing
should help bring in some mid to higher level cloud cover, keeping
skies a mix of partly and mostly cloudy through the day.
Temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s as long as the
cloud cover doesn`t get too thick. Winds are forecast to be light as
the pressure gradient across the High Plains should be weak.
Overnight, temperatures should again lower to near freezing with the
winds remaining light and the cloud cover likely thinning a bit.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

A quieter pattern is likely to dominate the County Warning Area
(CWA) this weekend into early next week. Upper-level flow starts off
from the northwest Friday as a mini-ridge slides across the high
plains. Ensemble guidance shows this ridge moving quickly to the
east and weaken quite a bit heading into Saturday. Simultaneously, a
mini-trough is anticipated to propagate across the CWA through
Saturday, becoming more positively tilted as it makes its way east.
This should usher in zonal flow transitioning back to northwesterly
as another ridge starts to influence the area on Sunday. This second
building ridge likely will be quite a bit larger than the first;
therefore, will be expected to influence the Tri-State area for a
longer period of time. Meridional flow should accompany this system
as the ridge axis passes over our region then southwest flow likely
follows thereafter. Thus, dry conditions are likely to persist
through early next week.

Descending to the surface, guidance projects high
pressure to form late this week and last through early next week.
There is medium confidence on a cold front passing through Friday as
well as a low chance for a front late Monday as well. These should
both be dry passages as Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) remain
at or below 5% through Monday. Dewpoints are forecast to be quite
dry, ranging in the 30s and 40s throughout the long-term forecast
period. Mostly sunny skies are anticipated to dominate the forecast
period, outside of some cloud coverage with the frontal passage
Friday as well as overnight into Saturday morning.


High temperatures across the CWA should stay seasonably cool (mid to
upper 50s) through the weekend until Monday where it warms into the
mid 60s. Forecasted low temperatures will be something to keep an
eye on this week as freezing to near freezing overnight temps are
likely throughout the CWA this weekend and into Monday morning.
Friday morning should be the coldest as lows around 28-32 degrees
are possible. Fire weather should not be a big concern this weekend
and through Monday despite Relative Humidity (RH) values forecasted
as low as 25-30% for eastern Colorado and 35-50% for the rest of the
Tri-State area. Model guidance shows winds being fairly weak through
Monday with 5-20 mph expected throughout the CWA. Gusts up to 30 mph
are possible in windier locations of eastern Colorado on Saturday
but other than that, 15-20 mph gusts should be expected everywhere
else.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1009 PM MST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions continue to be in place for KGLD and KMCK, and
are expected to remain through the TAF period. Wind shear
continues to be the main concern over the next few hours, as a
low level jet is expected to remain through 09Z. Otherwise,
winds will be light and primarily out of the northwest for both
terminals.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...Davis