139
FXUS63 KGLD 221632
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1032 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing sub-severe storms in northwest Kansas will track
  southeastward into central Kansas by sunrise.

- Storms forecast to develop along the CO Front Range late this
  afternoon will track east toward the KS border this evening.
  A few storms capable of producing small hail and localized
  wind gusts up to 65 mph are possible, mainly in eastern CO
  between 7-11 PM MDT.

- Expect near average temperatures today followed by a modest
  warming trend on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

No significant change(s) to prior forecast reasoning and
expectations for the weekend.

Today, the upper ridge axis will run from eastern Wyoming and
Colorado to the Texas panhandle. Convection will develop in the
afternoon over the Rockies and Front Range with the southwest
flow, then move across the eastern plains and spreading into the
area tonight. With the later arrival, probably not until after
03Z, storms will be weakening but may still pose a marginal risk
for damaging wind gusts as they make their way across the area
through the overnight.

The ridge flattens out on Sunday and extends from the Four
Corners to the Texas panhandle. Zonal flow over the top through
northern Colorado will initiate convection over the mountains
and Front Range, and once again make the trek across the plains
and into the area Sunday night. These will arrive slightly
earlier, 00-02z, in far northeast Colorado and may still pose a
marginal wind and hail threat, but with only weak instability
forecast and deep layer shear around 20 kts, severe chances will
be low. Storms will gradually weaken as they move east into the
remainder of the area Sunday evening.

The ridge strengthens a bit on Monday with height rises in
Colorado, and the zonal flow is through southern Wyoming.
Forecast instability is weak and generally less than 1000 j/kg,
though deep layer shear does increase to around 40 kts. RFS
suggests a few scattered storms developing, moving east and then
southeast with the mean flow Monday afternoon and evening in
areas generally north of Interstate 70 with perhaps a marginal
risk for wind and hail.

The temperature trend for the period will be near to slightly
above normal through the weekend, then above normal on Monday
with temperatures currently forecast in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Synoptically, a ridge is forecast to be over the SW CONUS and
currently looks to remain relatively stationary. Throughout the
week, there appears to be a few shortwaves moving though the
CWA, which may bring higher precipitation chances.

High temperatures for the week are forecast to be in the 90s
for the majority of the area. The "coolest" day for the period
looks to be Wednesday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s,
whereas Friday looks to be the hottest with highs in the mid
90s. If the ridge begins to amplify or move eastward, as
guidance hints, higher temperatures could be seen. Winds
throughout the week are forecast to be calm to breezy, and
relative humidity values are expected to be higher than 30%,
which should help minimize fire weather concerns.

Precipitation chances are present during the week. As some
shortwaves move around the high, they will likely to be our main
precipitation producers. The day currently with the highest
precipitation chances is Tuesday. Guidance hints at some
vorticity associated with the shortwave as it moves through
Tuesday afternoon. Both CAPE and shear appear sufficient for
severe storms; however, some guidance indicates a mismatch
between higher/lower CAPE and lower/higher shear, which could
lead to less organized storms. Looking at qpf, some guidance
shows the possibility of heavy rainfall with these storms, which
is something to keep in mind as we get closer to Tuesday. The
rest of the week there is roughly a 15-30% chance of PoPs as
various shortwaves move through the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the
afternoon with mostly clear skies and light winds. Tonight,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of
Colorado late this evening and overnight. There is around a 30%
probability of impacting KGLD with brief gusty winds and
visibility reductions due to rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Holdren
AVIATION...024