192
FXUS63 KGLD 121055
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
355 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry forecast through the remainder of the work week.

- Gradual warming temperature trend through the work week. Near
  record to record highs possible Thursday and Friday.

- Multiple chances at precipitation next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1206 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Tranquil conditions are ongoing currently across the area as ridging
continues to amplify across the western CONUS and no pressure
gradients leading to light winds and clear skies. Above normal
temperatures are forecast to continue today with highs in the upper
60s to low 70s across the area. A surface high is forecast to move
across southern portions of the area which will help strengthen
the 850mb winds in wake of the high leading to breezy winds
gusting 20- 30 mph across western portions of the CWA. The warm
temperatures will again lead to low humidity in the upper
teens. An hour or two at best of localized critical conditions
may occur along and west of the Kansas/Colorado state line
during the afternoon if temperatures were to rise a few degrees
more than currently forecast.

Clouds will increase off of the mountains overnight with some mid
level moisture moves through. This along with continued westerly
downsloping winds have led to me increase low temperatures a few
degrees into Thursday morning. Continuing into Thursday and Friday,
the ridge continues to influence the temperatures as it moves nearer
and finally over the area. Near record to record high temperatures
remain in jeopardy each day with Friday currently forecast to be the
warmest with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity will
be low each day but the effects of the ridge and no clear cut
pressure gradients will preclude any fire weather concerns. The
fire threat that was previously for Friday has waned as
currently the surface trough leading to the wind potential is
currently being depicted remaining up around the I-80 corridor.
Mild (for mid November) overnight temperatures Thursday night
and Friday night are forecast to continue due to the
southwesterly winds. Temperatures in the 30s to 40s are forecast
for Friday morning and 40s to even low 50s for Friday night
into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

The long-term will start off with a 500mb high pressure system over
the southern CONUS extending a ridge over the CWA. A low will be
moving over the western CONUS, slowly pushing to the east, forcing
the high out of our area. Saturday and most of Sunday, we will still
be under the influence of the ridge, leading to continued dry
conditions. Saturday will remain fairly warm, likely in the upper
60s to low 70s. An 850 mb high will descend from the Northern Plains
Sunday, wrapping in cooler air, cooling us off about 10 degrees.
Lows are forecast to remain above freezing over the weekend.

Late Sunday night into Monday morning, the aforementioned low
pressure system will begin impacting the CWA. There is a 30-45%
chance of showers Monday morning with the cold front passage. The
main limiting factor for precipitation will be moisture. The GFS is
the most bullish with moisture content, while the ECMWF and CMC-NH
show only low-level moisture, about 100-150 mb thick. Looking at the
LREF, about half of the members show no QPF and another quarter show
less than 0.1 inch. If precipitation occurs, the northwestern CWA
will receive the most and there`s a <5% chance it`ll fall as snow in
the northwestern CWA.

Low temperatures behind the cold front look to generally remain
around freezing for the rest of the long-term. Highs will slowly
cool from the 50s to upper 40s. The low-level moisture may remain
over the CWA Monday evening into Wednesday. This would lead to more
stratus and potentially fog. If the moisture remains, lows will
likely remain in the mid 30s with highs starting near 50 and cooling
into the low 40s. There would also be a low chance of patchy
freezing fog.

Wednesday, another low is expected to impact the area. This low
looks to be farther southeast than the first low, leading to a
greater chance at precipitation and snow. There is considerable
uncertainty with the Wednesday system, but it`ll be worth keeping
an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions remain forecast for this TAF period. Mid to high
clouds are forecast to return mid to late afternoon Wednesday
and continue through Wednesday night. Winds are forecast to
become southwesterly with some gusts up to 25 knots possible
through the day for GLD due to diurnal mixing. Some gusts to 20
knots are possible at MCK this afternoon as well but are
anticipated to be less frequent. Winds are then forecast to
veer to the northwest by 12Z Thursday at GLD, but may not occur
at MCK until after this TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1206 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

Record high temperatures may be in jeopardy across portions of
the area on Nov 13-14. Record highs and current forecast highs
for the aforementioned dates are listed below (in Fahrenheit).

----------------------
THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13
----------------------
Goodland:    80 in 2007... current forecast 76
Burlington:  79 in 2007... current forecast 76
Hill City:   83 in 1999... current forecast 72
McCook:      82 in 1999... current forecast 73

----------------------
FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14
----------------------
Goodland:    75 in 1990... current forecast 79
Burlington:  78 in 2007... current forecast 78
Hill City:   83 in 1999... current forecast 79
McCook:      78 in 1990... current forecast 77

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg
CLIMATE...Trigg