916
FXUS63 KGLD 161904
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
104 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for storms continue today, with the chance for severe
  storms late in the day into the evening; severe winds around
  60 mph look to be the main hazard.

- Storms along and south of the Interstate may be capable of
  very heavy rainfall and training potential which may lead to
  some flooding in towns and low lying areas this evening and
  overnight.

- Daily chances for showers and storms continue through early
  next week. Strong to severe storms are possible as well.

- Temperatures return to the 90s Friday, continually warming
  into next week as temperatures may reach the low 100s by
  Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

The cold front has moved through the area leaving stratus in its
wake; further back to the north which is further removed from the
front and ahead of a shortwave some clearing has been noted as of
17Z. Have lowered high temperatures across the area due to the
quicker progression of the front. With the quicker progression of
the front, the concern for severe weather has diminished but still
isn`t completely gone especially for eastern Colorado. A
disturbance off of the Front Range is forecast to lead to some
severe storms out that way before clustering into a line as it
treks to the ESE. At this time it appears that strong winds to
55 mph will be the main hazard with this, with the quicker
progression of the front main concern is primarily across
Cheyenne county Colorado after 00Z. Additional storms are
forecast to develop off of the Cheyenne ridge and move into the
area of clearing. Wind gusts to 60 mph and hail around penny to
nickel size look to be the most likely hazards with storms
before they run into the stable air from the stratus and begin
to dissipate.

Additional moderate to heavy rain is still forecast to develop south
of the interstate this evening and overnight as isentropic lift
increases. The big caveat to the evening will be will any outflows
from the southern cluster kick out to the north and trigger more
storms. If this does occur then heavy to very heavy rainfall would
occur as we have a very saturated air mass in place characterized by
a long skinny profile and PWATS of 1.5-1.8. Forecast soundings also
do show weak mid level flow and weaker Corfidi vectors then what was
seen yesterday which may add some training/backbuilding potential.
HREF continues to signify an area across Gove, Logan and
Wichita counties where the potential for 3+ inches of rainfall
in 3 hours. Still can`t rule out some nuisance type flooding in
towns and low lying areas and perhaps an instance of flash
flooding. If the outflow is stronger and can trigger more storms
then a better chance of flooding may develop but this seems to
be more an outlier situation. With Crest and Sac SMA less than
10% of soil moisture in place will not be issuing a Flood Watch.


Behind the area of rainfall this evening a strong signal for stratus
and some fog is again seen through the morning hours Thursday
as winds remain from the favored easterly direction. Localized
dense fog is again possible currently favoring the
Kansas/Colorado line but any outflow may shift this area or if
the rainfall lingers longer than what is currently anticipated
may also limit any fog. Highs for tomorrow are forecast to be
similar to today as we remain in a cooler air mass but eastern
Colorado may see some developing downslope flow which may be
able to warm western portions of the Colorado counties into the
low 80s. Another weak wave associated with diurnal Palmer
Divide convection may bring some storms into the Colorado
counties as well before dissipating before they reach the state
line in the early evening hours; severe weather is not
anticipated. Another round of stratus may be possible as well
Thursday night into Friday morning but as monsoonal moisture
returns from shunted out of the area by the front but is not a
typical favored climatological wind direction so brings so
question marks to it.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

High pressure begins to develop across the southeast portion of the
CONUS as longwave troughing begins to redevelop across the west.
Moisture remains in place as well which continues to suggest that
daily chances for showers and storms remain possible for the area.
For Friday some stronger storms may be possible as we do have some
support from a weak 700mb wave along and east of Highway 25 for some
strong to perhaps severe storms. At this time the favored day for
severe weather looks to be on Saturday as a more potent wave looks
to move off of the Rockies. Moisture will again be on the increase
as easterly flow returns. Discrepancies still lie with the
amount CAPE and wind shear available but there is potential for
a possible more impactful day if everything can align. ECMWF
ensemble members also do show a decent swath of rainfall along
and north of I-70 during that timeframe which is further
increasing my confidence in this occurring. A semi stagnate
pattern continues into Sunday as well with another threat for
showers and storms during the afternoon hours.

A pattern chance then finally begins to present itself to start the
new week as the surface high across the south expands into the
central Plains sending the jet stream further to the north. This
appears to bring an end to the chances for showers and storms with
the caveat of if the high pressure sets up further east then still
may have some potential for some monsoonal disturbances to
impact western portions of the area.

A gradual warming trend is forecast to occur throughout the extended
period with the hottest being Monday through the end of the period
with highs in the in the upper 90s to low 100s. May need to keep an
eye on some potential heat products as moisture does look to remain
in place with some heat indices having the potential to reach 105
across eastern portions of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1033 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue for the majority of the
day in wake of a cold frontal passage this morning. So peaks of
some are possible during the mid to late afternoon hours
however. With the quicker movement of the front do think that
any severe threat has shifted to the south of each terminal;
however the threat for storms still remains for KGLD but may be
dependent on how far south the front sags and if any northward
moving outflow can emanate from a cluster of storms to the south
of the terminal. So will maintain the PROB30 for now; still
can`t completely rule out some showers or isolated storms for
KMCK but confidence is not at 30% to warrant a PROB30. Strong
signal for more stratus to develop behind the rain along with
some fog potential as well, currently favoring the KGLD terminal
for the fog.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg