303
FXUS63 KGLD 210703
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
103 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning showers and storms may become severe before
  sunrise.

- Patchy fog likely Monday and Tuesday mornings.

- A break in the precipitation chances Monday and Tuesday, but
  returning for Wednesday.

- Breezy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday; may see
  gusts around 35-45 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1257 AM MDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Early this morning, strong to severe storms are expected t
persist until closer to 9Z. Hail up to 1.25 inches and 50-60 MPH
winds are the most likely hazards. Storms will primarily remain
south of I-70 and east of U.S. 83. There is also a 30% chance flash
flooding will occur with these showers and storms in Kit Carson and
Cheyenne counties, where there is an early morning flood advisory.
The bulk of the convection should be exiting the CWA to the
southeast between 9-12Z.

Also this morning, there is a 50% chance for widespread 1-5 mile
visibility in fog with patches of 1/4 mile visibility in dense fog.
This would likely start forming around 9Z and may last until 13-15Z.
Widespread stratus is also expected and should rapidly lift around
14-15Z. Lows are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s this morning.

Today, temperatures will remain cool, in the 70s, as the low over
the northern CONUS move on east and we remain under zonal flow until
the evening. During the evening hours, a ridge is expected to start
moving into the region. This leads to a 10-20% chance of showers and
weak storms in the southwestern CWA, but most of the area will
remain convection free.

Cool temperatures persist into Monday night and Tuesday morning,
where lows will cool to near 50. A surface high near the Great Lakes
will work to provide easterly flow and moisture return. This
advection has a 30% chance of providing patchy to dense fog across
the area Tuesday morning. This fog may persist until the mid to late
morning.

Tuesday, the ridge really moves in and we are expecting to see winds
start increasing in intensity. Southeasterly flow throughout the day
will work to bring in additional cloud cover and keep temperatures
cool NBM is having temperatures capped out in the low to mid 70s,
but there`s a 40% chance temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low
80s. We could see gusts up around the 25-35 kts range make it down
to the surface. Location is uncertain with the breezier conditions,
but the NBM has an unnecessary bias for eastern Colorado having the
strongest winds, which shows up Wednesday, too.

After sunset, winds are expected to weaken, but depending on how
strong the inversion is, occasional gusts up around 25-30 kts are
possible. Lows look to cool into the 50s with some stratus likely
occurring.

Wednesday, the southerly flow looks to ramp up again and we could
see gusts nearing 40 kts in the midday. Thankfully, lapse rates look
to be too weak to support blowing dust and temperatures look to only
warm into the mid 70s to low 80s. We are expecting to see a trough
move over the Northern Rockies Wednesday afternoon and evening,
which has a greater than 60% chance of firing off another round of
storms. Severe weather cannot be ruled out, but confidence in
specifics is very low at this point. Low look to cool into the 50s
again Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Confidence is high that a longwave ridge is expected to influence
the county warning area (CWA) Thursday through Saturday morning.
Ensemble guidance is in agreement of the ridge axis positioning over
the Missouri River Valley placing the Tri-State area in southwest
flow aloft. This feature should amplify a bit then move off to the
east through Saturday night, bringing zonal westerly flow through at
least next Sunday. A weak 500 mb jet accompanies this ridge but
exits the region by Saturday. Surface low pressure forms Friday,
influencing the area through the end of next weekend. Medium
confidence exists of a frontal boundary impacting the area Thursday
ushering in Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) chances heading into
the weekend.

With respect to PoPs, rain is likely (60-80%) early Thursday as the
front moves to the east. Rain chances for the afternoon/evening drop
off a bit but persist with 30-50% chances for the CWA. Friday`s
chances sit at around 25-40% as the system exits our CWA.
Precipitation is unlikely Saturday as the upper-level pattern
settles into zonal flow. Finally, Sunday presents a slight chance of
rain (20-30%) during the evening as a shortwave passes through.
Dewpoints are forecasted in the upper 50s/low 60s so ample moisture
will be present for rain and thunderstorms. Model guidance does
project a low instability, low shear environment during the
four-day forecast period though so confidence in severe weather
is low at this point in time.

High temperatures are expected to be near the seasonal average for
this time of the year for the Tri-State area heading into the
weekend. Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are likely for the entire
forecast period. Saturday/Sunday should be a bit warmer (low to mid
80s) than Thursday and Friday (mid to upper 70s). Surface winds
should be modest for Thursday and Friday blowing in at 5-15 mph from
the southeast, gusting up to 20 mph. Winds Saturday are forecasted
from the south at 5-10 mph gusting to 15 mph. Last but not least,
Sunday`s winds are anticipated to be 10-15 mph from the southeast,
gusting up to 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Conditions are expected to rapidly worsen over the next couple
of hours. It may be until closer to 7Z when the MVFR ceilings
form, but they will persist and likely lower throughout the
morning hours. KMCK will see it worst, likely dropping to around
minimums between 10-15Z. KGLD is only expected to get into IFR
range, but there is a 20% chance ceilings drop even lower.
Patchy fog is also expected. Extent and density is still unknown
with the ongoing convection. KGLD may see some light rain
lightly impacting the site before 9Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades/AMP
AVIATION...CA