680
FXUS63 KGLD 240512
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1112 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of Northwest Kansas and
  Southwest Nebraska Saturday through Monday. High temperatures
  are forecast to be in the 100s with heat index values in the
  mid 100s. Limit time outdoors and stay hydrated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today-Tonight: Synoptically similar to yesterday, albeit with
modestly stronger W to WNW flow aloft on the eastern fringe of
an amplifying ridge over the 4-Corners and northern Rockies.
Late evening/early morning convection and lingering stratus have
significantly affected the airmass in place over the Tri-State
Area. At 18Z, temperatures were in the lower 70`s across the
majority of the Goodland CWA. Meanwhile, in far southwest KS,
where sunshine has been unimpeded, temperatures have already
reached 100F. Expect highs ranging from the lower-mid 80`s in
northeast portions of the area.. where overcast stratus persists
early this afternoon.. to lower 90`s in far southern portions
of the area (Greeley and Wichita counties).

Convection (South): Surface observations and visible satellite
imagery indicate a pronounced TMB (thermal/moisture boundary)
over southeast CO and southwest KS, extending eastward from
Trinidad to Springfield and Ulysses then northeastward from
Ulysses to Garden City and Ness City. This feature appears to be
the primary focus for convective development, and this is where
thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential will be
greatest. Convection initiating to the south could progress
northward into southern portions of the Goodland CWA via several
routes: via a WSW-SW mean wind, SW left-mover motion (if
anticyclonic supercells are present) or if northward-moving
outflow initiates additional development.

Convection (West): Separately, diurnal convection developing
along portions of the Cheyenne Ridge, Colorado Front Range and
Palmer Divide could progress E or SE into eastern CO late this
afternoon and evening, though.. said activity would encounter a
less favorable /increasingly hostile/ thermodynamic environment
with eastern extent, especially in northwest KS where persistent
cloud cover has significantly mitigated diurnal
destabilization.

Simulated reflectivity forecasts via current and recent runs of
the HRRR are consistent with the above thinking, indicating that
thunderstorm coverage and severe weather potential in the
Goodland CWA will largely be tied to convective development
along the TMB to the south.. and that scattered diurnal
convection emanating from higher terrain to the west will tend
to weaken/dissipate with eastern extent toward the CO-KS border.

Fri-Fri night: Guidance indicates that the amplifying ridge
over the 4-Corners will expand eastward across the Rockies and
Central/Southern Plains. Expect dry conditions, light winds and
a warming trend, with highs in the mid 90`s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 223 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over
the Central and Southern Plains this weekend, which will keep
hot, mid summer conditions in place across the Tri-State Area.
As we move into next workweek, weather models show the ridge of
high pressure gradually flattening and shifting westward toward
the Four Corners Region. This retrogression will shift our local
upper level wind pattern to the west/northwest, allowing for
periodic disturbances to slide along the edge of the ridge and
across the High Plains.

Several hot days are in store for the region starting Saturday.
Forecast confidence is very high with 25th to 75th percentile
max temperatures with only a 3-4 degree spread, with Saturday
high temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to low 100s, and
Sunday-Monday ranging from the low to mid 100s for the entire
area. Areas along and east of US Highway 83 could approach Heat
Advisory thresholds, with heat index values topping out around
Sunday and Monday. As the ridge retreats westward Tuesday and
Wednesday, temperatures will gradually ease with model variance
becoming wider (highs ranging from the low to mid 90s).

A steady tap of moisture wrapping around the upper level high
pressure system will keep atmospheric moisture levels unusually
high across the region between the 75th and 99th percentile
(well above normal) for late July. Saturday into Sunday will be
mainly diurnally driven with storms initiating off the higher
terrain of the Front Range/Palmer Divide during the afternoon,
then drive eastward. Confidence is low that storms will actually
make it over to extreme eastern CO counties. Chances for
precipitation increase and spread further east as northwest flow
aloft sharpens and some instability in the upper flow occurs
(shortwave troughs moving through). With high atmospheric
moisture, and a lack of mid level wind support leading to likely
slow storm movement, heavy rain and perhaps some local minor
flooding could occur under persistent / repeating storm cores.
Otherwise, severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1103 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period with
winds generally below 8 kts. The main concern is the possibility
for ceilings to lower to a few hundred feet before 14Z. For now,
the time period of highest concern is between 09-13Z. There is a
35% chance that the low ceilings stay just east of the terminal,
keeping conditions at VFR levels.

For KMCK... MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast through about
14-15Z with ceilings already around 1000ft as of 05Z. Ceilings
will likely lower at times through the night to around
200-500ft. Fog is also possible, with visibility around 1-3SM.
Once the fog and cloud cover clears, VFR conditions with winds
under 8kts are forecast to prevail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Kochasic
AVIATION...KAK