270
FXUS63 KGLD 101105
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
405 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue.

- Temperatures a bit up and down: cooler today, warmer again on
  Thursday, then cooling on Friday.

- Fog and freezing fog possible Friday morning, but confidence
  is medium at best.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to 60s return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northwest flow continues through the short term period due to a
blocking ridge parked off the western CONUS. Precipitation
chances remain confined to the northern plains where the upper
jet is most active while the local area remains dry. Do not
anticipate any wind or fire weather concerns through the period.
Temperatures will be a bit up and down. It will be around 20
degrees colder today compared to yesterday in the wake of a cold
frontal passage earlier this evening. Highs will be in the upper
40s. Westerly winds return tonight and Thursday with lows in the
30s and high temperatures on Thursday bouncing back to the
upper 60s and lower 70s. Another cold front slides through
Thursday night with temperatures on Friday ranging from the
middle 40s in eastern areas to the middle 50s in Colorado.
Forecast soundings do show low level clouds and saturation along
the leading edge of the front Friday morning with northeasterly
winds, a favorable set up for fog, and with lows currently
forecast to be around 30 it could be freezing fog. Still a
couple of days out so confidence is medium at best, especially
regarding frontal timing and position Friday morning. Winds veer
to southeast by Friday night, less favorable for fog, with lows
in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

Starting the extended period Saturday, lingering stratus is forecast
to continue to be in place from the front on Friday. GFS
continues to show some low level omega of 1-2 microbars from the
surface to around 800mb which would continue some
drizzle/freezing drizzle concerns. Temperatures during this time
are below 0C so freezing drizzle would be on the table. The GFS
however is the outlier on this as the NAM, ECMWF and the
Canadian model have less omega and the stratus deck further
east. So this will need to be something to monitor.

Temperature forecast for Saturday appears to be rather tricky as we
will be dealing with the departing cold front to the east, a period
of downsloping winds to the west and secondary cold front
moving through. Went with the middle ground for high
temperatures especially across the east as there could still be
another factor of if the stratus deck can linger longer. There
is a split with GEFS and ECMWF-AIFS on how far west the initial
colder air mass will be which further adds to the complexity of
this part. Would not be surprised to see some fluctuation of
temperatures still in upcoming forecasts until guidance can come
into better agreement. Confidence however is high in that the
coldest temperatures will be across eastern portions of the CWA
with a 20% chance that highs will not get above freezing.

Sunday, those probabilities get a little higher for the east up
to around 30% chance as a secondary cold front moves through
the area. Additional stratus and fog are again possible as the
low levels saturate but seeing even less low level omega than
than Saturday morning. The greatest spread in high temperatures
is across the west as there are discrepancies at how far west
the cold air will push as well. At this time I would lean a
little toward the colder solutions as there is a signal that the
low stratus/fog may be able to lat through the entire day
before lifting in during the late afternoon.

Into the new work week, split flow returns to the area resulting in
mild temperatures into the 50s and 60s to return again and our dry
conditions continuing. Confidence is pretty high in this
pattern occurring. There area few disturbance moving through
the area that may bring some wind gusts of 20-25 mph during the
afternoon so we may need to keep an eye on some fire weather
potential during this time frame as humidity values are already
forecast in the low 20s. But at this time nothing is suggesting
widespread fire weather concerns. Mid week some guidance does
indicate a system developing Nebraska/South Dakota which may
support some active weather but confidence is way to low in this
even occurring in the first place to go into further detail at
this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 404 AM MST Wed Dec 10 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Surface winds will be light with occasional high clouds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024