707
FXUS63 KGLD 071309
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog/Freezing Fog, some of which may be dense, this morning
  along and west of a Hitchcock to Wichita county line. A 10%
  chance of isolated freezing drizzle as well. May form a film
  of ice on bridges.

- Similar weather pattern continues next week with a warming
  trend and breezy winds Monday and Tuesday.

- Cooler weather will return after Wednesday with below normal
  temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Made some tweaks to fog forecast for this morning as dense fog
has formed along the cold front moving to the SSW impacting
southern Logan, Wichita, Wallace and Greeley county over the
next 2-4 hours. Another area of fog has developed across western
Yuma and Kit Carson counties this area appears to be more driven
my low dew point depression. Elsewhere where fog was previously
mentioned still remains prone for patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak cold front is moving into the forecast area with stratus
occurring just behind it. Have actually increased low temperatures
for the night across the northeast as the cloud cover should help to
insulate the surface and keep temperatures from falling to much. To
the west of the stratus (mainly along and west of a Hitchcock to
Wichita county line) could see some fog develop along and just
behind the front as it continues to move to the southwest.
Further west of that some subtle moisture advection is ongoing
and is forecast to lead to additional fog development as well.
Should any of this fog form then freezing fog will become a
concern leading to slick roadways especially elevated surfaces.
Some of this fog may be dense but as what the similar
discussion mentioned the overall depth of the saturation level
isn`t overly impressive or very shallow. Do think there will be
some isolated instances of dense fog however. Am continuing to
see some weak surface omega around 1 microbars along with
isentropic lift in the 285K level leading to some concern that
freezing drizzle could be in store for counties mainly along the
Kansas/Colorado state line and as far east as Highway 25 but
that will be dependent on how far west the front does end up
pushing. Using REFS ensemble soundings the majority of the
members keeps the entire profile below the 0C line with the
average being -0.7C so still very close; but overall further
lowers my confidence in freezing drizzle occurring this morning.
Confidence in freezing drizzle is around 10% so will leave out
of the forecast for now but will keep a close eye on the
potential.

Fog and stratus is forecast to move out of the area from west to
east through the day and finally being out of the area by the late
afternoon as a weak surface trough moves in from the west. Along the
leading edge of the surface trough some additional lift around 750-
700mb may lead to some flurries or isolated light snow showers
through the late morning favoring eastern portions of the area.
Winds may become a little breezy across western portions of the
forecast area gusting 25-30 mph. Highs for the day are forecast in
the in the mid 30s across the east which are forecast to be engulfed
in clouds for the majority of the the day to the mid 40s across
eastern Colorado. Sunday night and into Monday morning appears
to be tranquil as drier surface moisture again moves into the
area. Some mid level cloud cover may develop with a weak
disturbance but no impacts are anticipated at this time as low
temperatures fall into the low 20s to upper teens across the
area.

Monday, another surface trough is forecast to be co-located across
northern portions of the forecast area with breezy sustained winds
around 15-25 mph gusting 35 mph during the afternoon. This is also
forecast to be start of a few days of above normal temperatures
as highs are forecast in the mid to upper 50s across the
forecast area. Overall a tranquil mild day is in store for the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 114 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Starting the extended period Tuesday, mild temperatures
continue for the area with highs in the 60s as winds become more
westerly promoting downsloping. Winds however are forecast to
become breezy to gusty with some gusts up to 45 mph during the
afternoon. A strong clipper system across the northern Plains is
forecast to send a cold front through the day through the mid
to late evening hours on Tuesday night bringing a chilly start
to the morning on Wednesday. However another surface trough is
forecast to impact the area Wednesday afternoon with
downsloping winds helping temperatures warm back into the upper
40s to low 50s. Some light precipitation may occur across
northern portions of the forecast area with rain during the day
when temperatures warm back above freezing and then becoming a
rain/snow mix during the night. At this time the better forcing
looks to remain north of the area so little to no accumulation
is expected and any impacts would be minimal.

Late week, yet another clipper system is forecast to move across the
northern Plains but be a little further south than the previous one
and accompanying with it a stronger cold front. precipitation
chances look a bit more optimistic with this system but still
tons of discrepancies are seen between each of the members of
the GEFS, ECWMF and ECMWF-AIFS on the amount of moisture present
and the trek of a shortwave, with the GEFS a bit more
optimistic on precipitation coverage due to more ensemble
guidance moving the shortwave over the forecast area. However
any snow output on the members that do produce precipitation
looks to be light. This is also further supported by the 00Z run
of the LREF with around a 30% chance for 0- 1 inches of
snowfall. Much colder air is looking more and more likely with
this system as high temperatures Friday may struggle to get out
of the 20s across much if not all of the area as 850mb
temperatures fall into the -8 to -12C range across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 402 AM MST Sun Dec 7 2025

Stratus continues for each terminal. Ceilings have not dropped
as much as initially anticipated so have gone a little less
aggressive until it can prove otherwise. MVFR to periods of IFR
ceilings are still forecast with a 10% chance of ceilings
falling to LIFR for either terminal. Latest guidance has backed
off a little bit with the fog for either terminal but the
potential still remains especially for GLD so will maintain the
tempo as some new cloud development has begun near ITR so
perhaps this is the start. Should fog develop for either
terminal it would be freezing resulting in light icing. Stratus
and any fog will end west to east through the day. Be aware for
shifting winds as well as an eventual transition to
southwesterly is forecast by the end of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Trigg