000
FXUS63 KGLD 250544
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1144 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
  early evening in northwest Kansas east of Highway 25 and south
  of Interstate 70.

- Scattered showers and storms Friday afternoon and Friday
  night, but severe storms are not expected.

- Warmer and dry over the weekend.

- Wet conditions return the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1240 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Surface low located near KGLD at 18z will gradually move east
through this afternoon, then finally lift out to the northeast
tonight. Latest radar trends show that intensity and coverage of
rain and shower has been decreasing. CAMs show that trend
continuing for a few more hours. However, by mid to late
afternoon may see an increase in activity in eastern areas near
the surface low and trailing cold front, where instability is
forecast to increase to 500-2000 j/kg along with bulk shear
values of 30-35 kts. The area of concern will be along and south
of Interstate 70 and east of Highway 25 in northwest Kansas,
where there will be a marginal risk for a couple of weak
supercells capable of isolated hail or damaging wind gusts
through about 01-02z before moving out to the east. Afterwards,
upslope winds on the backside of the departing low will result
in areas of fog this evening and through the overnight. The fog
may be widespread and dense in northwest Kansas and southwest
Nebraska given the already saturated conditions. The fog will
gradually dissipate late in the overnight and early Friday
morning as surface winds turn westerly and downslope drying
commences.

After morning fog burns off, Friday will be a mostly cloudy day
with just a few lingering isolated showers in the morning and
early afternoon. Another shortwave trough rotating around the
upper ridge will move through western Kansas Friday afternoon.
CAMs show thunderstorms developing in southwest Kansas around
21z then moving north into areas generally south of Interstate
70 in northwest Kansas by 21-23z, then northeast into areas east
of Highway 25 Friday evening. REFS shows weak instability of
less than 1000 j/kg and 0-6 km shear of 20-25 kts during that
time. As a result, the probability of severe weather will be
low. Additional storms moving into far northeast Colorado in
the evening are also not expected to be severe due to lack of
instability and shear, weakening as they approach the Kansas
border.

Over the weekend, the upper ridge will amplify northward into
the Central High Plains. This will result in dry conditions and
warmer temperatures. Saturday will see dry northwest winds,
which result in afternoon relative humidity minimums falling
into the teens in northeast Colorado. However, winds will be
light and critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated.
Southeast winds on Sunday will increase the moisture and keep
humidity between 20-30% in Colorado, and much higher further
east. The ridge does begin to break down Sunday night, and there
is a low probability for an isolated shower or thunderstorm
overnight in northeast Colorado, remnants of earlier Front Range
convection.

Temperatures on Friday will be near to slightly below normal,
then warming to above normal on Saturday and Sunday with highs
in the low to mid 80s. Normal highs for this time of year is in
the upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A bit of uncertainty exists regarding the long term forecast.
Ensemble guidance is consistent on southwesterly flow overhead at
500-mb Monday morning, with a deep upper trough across the Western
United States. The trough is expected to move eastward across the
Central and Southern United States through the duration of the long
term period. However, the eastward speed of the trough is highly in
question. In general, warm conditions are forecast ahead of the
trough, with cooler and wetter conditions along a cold front as the
trough moves overhead. Once the trough fully moves through the area,
warmer and drier conditions may be allowed to return to the area.

Ensembles show the trough beginning to move overhead sometime
between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. However, they also show
large amounts of uncertainty centered around the trailing edge of
the trough. This would indicate a slower progression of this trough
eastward. Around 1 in 3 LREF members show the trough still lingering
in Southern California by midnight Tuesday, whereas the other
members show the trough moving out or already moved out of that
area. If the slower scenario occurs, warmer temperatures may hang
around into Tuesday. However, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s
are forecast only on Monday.

As the trough moves over the area, a cold front is expected to
traverse the area, bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation to
the area. As this process is favored to occur sometime before
Tuesday afternoon, highs are forecast in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the forecast area Tuesday. Additionally, NBM guidance
suggests a 50-70% chance for greater than 0.1 inches of rain across
the entire forecast area as the front comes through the area.
Currently, thunderstorms are not favored along this frontal
boundary, as LREF guidance suggests less than a 10% chance that
surface CAPE (a measure of atmospheric instability) exceeds 1000
J/kg. The exception is Monday evening, where areas along and east of
U.S. Highway 83 show as high as a 1 in 3 chance that CAPE exceeds
1000 J/kg. However, the front would need to come through Monday
evening in order to take advantage of this atmospheric instability
and produce thunderstorms. Otherwise, widespread rain seems more
likely as the front comes through.

Conditions are expected to remain cool and wet as the trough remains
in the area. Most LREF members begin showing the trough moving out
of the area around midday Wednesday, but may not occur until as late
as Thursday. Once the trough fully moves through the area,
conditions are expected to become warmer and drier. NBM
probabilities for 24 hr precipitation greater than 0.1 inches begin
to decrease Thursday (down to about 1 in 4 chance), as upper
percentile highs (90th and above) show 80s reaching back into some
areas of the forecast region.

It should be noted that the slowest progressions of the trough could
create a potential for flash flooding with rainfall. Most recent EC
deterministics even show the trough stalling out in the 4-Corners
Region Wednesday evening, and remaining in place into Friday. NBM 48
hr precipitation guidance shows most of the region at a 30-40%
chance for more than an inch of rain across Tuesday and Wednesday,
with high end scenarios (90th and above) for 24 hr precipitation
showing totals between 1 and 2.5 inches Tuesday through Thursday.
This is a low confidence scenario (about 5%), but could potentially
have notable flash flooding impacts if it occurs.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The potential for low stratus and fog remain the primary
aviation concerns for both KGLD and KMCK through 18Z. Ceilings
below 500 ft will be common with visibility expected to drop to
2SM or less by 10Z. KGLD looks to be the better candidate for
visibility dropping to 1/2SM or less. Light northeasterly winds
will shift to northwesterly briefly then back to southerly by
mid-morning, but remaining light. This will help to scour out
fog and allow ceilings to gradually begin lifting.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Pietrycha