197
FXUS63 KGLD 092317
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
417 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and breezy this afternoon and evening.

- Cold front this evening/overnight will bring 30-40 MPH gusts,
  with isolated 40-50 MPH gusts.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Thursday in the 60s to low 70s
  before cooler, albeit normal to slightly below normal,
  temperatures Friday through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

In the upper-levels, we`ll be southwest of northwesterly flow. This
will allow lower-level systems to pass through region and clip the
CWA over the next few days.

Today, the northwesterly breezy conditions will continue until about
sunset. Late this evening, around 0-3Z, a cold front will be
entering the CWA from the north. Winds will have calmed a bit before
this happens, but once the front passes through, northerly winds
sustained around 15-20 kts and gusts 20-30 kts are expected. Surface
pressure rises look to be around 1-2 mb per hour for 3-6 hours
following the front. There is a 35% chance a few gusts of 40-45 kts
occur tonight behind the front.

Due to a general lack of moisture in the atmosphere, precipitation
is not expected tonight, or throughout the rest of the short term.
There should be enough moisture to lead to scattered to broken
skies. Between the clouds and the stronger winds, the surface will
stay well mixed and insulated. This will keep low temperatures
around 30 in the eastern CWA and mid 20s in the western CWA. Wind
chills will be around 20F Wednesday morning.

Tomorrow morning, an 850 mb high pressure system will be ejecting
off the Rockies to our southwest. This will extend a ridge over the
CWA, leading to weaker winds throughout most of the day Wednesday.
This will also help clear out the sky, allowing temperatures to warm
to around 50. The ridge will also lead to some WAA, which will be
stronger over the western CWA. This should allow temperatures in
eastern Colorado to warm into the low 50s.

Wednesday evening into the night, a weak shortwave trough will push
the ridge out of the area to the east. Once again, moisture is
lacking, so PoPs are very low, but along and north of U.S. 36 could
see some isolated flurries/sprinkles. Depending on the timing of any
precipitation, temperatures could melt out any falling snow. If
rain/sprinkles do occur, isolated patches of black ice my form later
in the night as temperatures fall below freezing. Overall, low
temperatures are forecast to drop to near freezing.

Thursday morning, another weak ridge will move in from the
southwest. Mild WAA and clearing skies will allow temperatures to
warm into the upper 60s to low 70s Thursday. These temperatures and
no additional moisture will push minimum RH values into the upper
teens in eastern Colorado. Northwesterly winds gusting around 20 kts
with the drier RHs will cause a mild concern for fire weather
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 112 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

Thursday night, a front is forecast to move through the area either
during the very early morning hours or around sunrise. In most
scenarios, the pressure rises are only around a 2-3 mb in three
hours which is forecast to not lead to much of an increase in the
winds with speeds around 10-20 mph. The bigger concern is the
possibility for some freezing fog and drizzle ahead of and just
behind the front. Some guidance is hinting that the colder
temperatures with the front may allow the air to saturate as the
front isn`t forecast to bring much dry air in. Even if the
saturation does occur, temperatures may not lower fast enough for
the freezing aspect to develop. So for now, watching for some fog
and drizzle that could be freezing.

Friday, temperatures are forecast to be cooler compared to Thursday
in the wake of the front with highs in the 40s and 50s. The coldest
air will favor eastern portions of the area as the cold air mass
slides through the Plains. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast as drier
air isn`t forecast to sweep in and clear us out.

For the weekend, colder temperatures remain forecast, through how
cold remains a bit unclear. Guidance is fairly unified in an upper
trough digging into the Plains and Ohio River Valley. The issue is
that ensemble guidance is showing a hint that it could dig a bit
further south and west compared to deterministic guidance. If the
trough follows more deterministic guidance, Saturday and Sunday`s
temperatures won`t be too dissimilar to Friday with highs in the 40s
and 50s and lows 20s and teens. The coldest temperatures are likely
on Sunday in the wake of another potential front. If the trough does
dig more west/south, temperatures could be about 5-15 degrees cooler
than what is currently forecast. Regardless of scenario,
precipitation is unlikely as drier air steadily filters into the
area in the lower levels from the west.

For the start of next week, the initial forecast continues to favor
more mild conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s. Either split
flow or upper ridging is forecast to take hold over the Plains,
leading to the nicer conditions. With little/no change in the
overall air mass and weak forcing over the area, precipitation
remains unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 413 PM MST Tue Dec 9 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Clouds generally above 10000ft are forecast to move over
the area during the period. Closer to the surface, winds are
forecast to increase as a cold front sweeps through the area
from the northwest. It should pass through the terminal within
the first 2-3 hours, increasing speeds to around 20 kts and
shifting winds to out of the northwest. The main concern is that
low level wind shear should develop with wind around 300ft
forecast to increase to 40-50 kts. A smaller concern is that
there is a less than 10% chance that 40 kts or higher wind gusts
may briefly occur if they can mix down with the frontal passage.
After 12Z, the low level wind shear should end with winds near
the surface lowering to around 10 kts and slowly shifting to out
of the southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK