483
FXUS63 KGLD 060454
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1054 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog may develop over a limited portion of the
  area Saturday morning (a few hours on either side of sunrise),
  mainly in Cheyenne County CO.

- Mild weekend forecast with near average temperatures around 80
  and winds below 20 mph.

- Warmer temperatures and a more active pattern are forecast to
  return next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

For the next few hours, the southern CWA will see continuing
rain with another 0.1-0.2 inch of rain possible between 18-6Z.
These showers will slowly drift to the south, likely exiting the
area by 0-6Z. The persistent cloud cover will keep temperatures
in the 60s to upper 50s, with the cooler temperatures where the
rain is continuing. The clouds are forecast to linger through a
good chunk of the night, slowly clearing out, but helping keep
temperatures in the 40s. We are expecting some stratus and
patchy fog to form in the southwestern CWA, there is a 25%
chance of dense fog.

Tomorrow, we`re looking at partly cloudy conditions thanks to
an 850 mb high over eastern Kansas funneling some more moisture
into the region. The southerly winds will mix down to the
surface and help get our temperatures into the mid to upper 70s.
Around 0Z, there is a 10-15% chance a 500 mb shortwave trough
moves across the area, forcing some showers or light storms to
form. No severe impact are expected from this low chance of
precipitation.

Fog and stratus may return Saturday night. If it does, expect
temperatures to remain in the mid to upper 50s. If we remain
mostly clear, lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1254 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

The long-term will see a pattern that we saw a lot of back in
July. A ridge will be set up over the Four Corners and Great
Basin region as a low over the Great Lakes slowly pushes off to
the east and another low moves over the northwestern CONUS. The
ridge and northwesterly flow will dominate the CWA Sunday
through Monday night, potentially into Tuesday. The speed of the
northwestern low will determine when the northwesterly flow
will break apart, but Tuesday is when we can expect to see a
change in the weather.

Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge, the low
will slow to a crawl over the northern Rockies and potentially
Fujiwara if the center of the low splits. This looks to happen
Tuesday through the end of the workweek, as what`s left of the
high shifts its axis over the central Great Plains. In the
lower-levels, this will lead to an 850 mb high pressure system
over the mid and southern Mississippi River Valley regions as
weak lows eject off the northern Rockies with the Tri-State area
sandwiched in between the two. This will allow a southerly LLJ
to funnel mid and low-level moisture into the CWA as well as
warmer temperatures. Upper 80s and low 90s are expected to
return no later than Tuesday and remain through the rest of the
week. Low are expected to drop into the mid 50s and 60s
throughout the long-term.

Due to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts, there will be
a nearly daily 20% chance of showers and weak storms across the
area. Currently, no guidance is showing a strong cold front
moving through the area as the upper-level low remains somewhat
stationary. If a stronger low and cold front can eject off the
the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be in place for
severe storms. The NBM does not seem to be reflecting the
precipitation potential well in this setup. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20%; at
least one day (Tues- Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is 65%;
confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday-Friday is 10-15%.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Fri Sep 5 2025

A corridor of stratus remains to the south of the GLD terminal.
Am anticipating this to remain south of the terminal but there
is 30-40% chance that some of the stratus does try to advect
towards the terminal which is what is prompting the tempo. Due
to the lack of saturation depth not anticipating fog to be an
issue but could see some reductions especially towards the
11-13Z time frame where visibilities fall into the 6sm-9sm
range. Winds are then forecast to back and become more from the
SSE. As for KMCK no current concerns for stratus or fog.
Southwest winds are forecast to become more southeasterly mid
morning. For GLD, just after this TAF period am starting to see
some hints of another round of stratus or fog which may impact
the terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Trigg