310
FXUS63 KGLD 070707
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
107 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday, though there
  is a chance most of the area doesn`t see storms. However,
  large to very large hail, wind gusts to 65 mph, and maybe a
  tornado are possible.

- Pockets of dense fog are possible this morning, and
  potentially Sunday night and Monday morning.

- Temperatures may reach the 100-105 range Tuesday and Wednesday.
  Critical fire weather conditions may be in place as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 102 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Current observations show a large upper trough over the Northwestern
United States, with a cut-off low over and south of the area. The
pressure gradient at the surface has relaxed a bit compared to
earlier today, which has lowered winds closer to 5-10 mph. However,
the winds are still from the south/southeast, which continues to
advect moisture into the area. With low clouds already developing,
these should push through the area during the remainder of the
night. The benefit is that the clouds insulating us and the winds
around 10 mph are forecast to keep the chances for dense fog low.
Still, with the added moisture and upslope component of the wind,
there should be a few patches of dense fog. Best time looks to be
around 4-7am and the dense fog patches may move through the area
instead of setting up in one position.

For the daytime hours today, the upper low over the Plains is
forecast to lift north and bring some slight ridging over the area.
This is forecast to allow for temperatures to warm into the 90s once
the morning cloud cover and fog burns off. However, with the main
trough still northwest of the area, the low pressure center is
forecast to remain along the Front Range. This should restrengthen
the pressure gradient and allow winds to reach 15-25 mph again. Wind
gusts may be a bit weaker around 25-35 mph with the weaker flow
aloft from the ridging trying to move in.

During the afternoon and evening hours, a few showers and storms may
form west of the area along the higher terrain with the upslope
flow. The rest of the area looks to be suppressed by a lack of
convergence and the slight ridging overhead. The storms that do form
will try and push east into the area, but are forecast to struggle
with effective shear around 20-30 kts hindering them from
sustaining. The favored areas to see this are counties near the Tri-
State border area. The one thing that might cause the storms to
persist into the night is if outflows can spark additional storms.
The area as a whole is forecast to have just enough instability and
moisture for continued storm development as long as strong enough
forcing exsists. Otherwise, low cloud cover and maybe some fog is
forecast to try and form around and east of Highway 83. This should
help keep temperatures in the 60s in the east, while those to the
west may reach the 50s.

Monday, one of the main upper lows to the northwest is forecast to
lift north and bring the main trough axis through the Plains. This
is forecast to keep some lower pressure over the Plains, while
keeping the main low center along the Front Range. Winds should be a
bit lighter as a result, more around 10-15 mph. With skies forecast
to clear as the day goes along and the ridge trying to amplift into
the the Plains, temperatures are forecast to reach the 90s again.
The caveat is if storms linger through the prior night and into the
early morning hours, northeastern portions of the area may remain in
the 80s with the increased cloud cover and cooler outflows.

Whether or not we have storms lingering until the early morning
hours looks to play a huge role in how storms develop late in the
day Monday. If storms do linger, then most of the area would likely
be too stable for any storms to develop and hinder the severe
threat. If we are not capped however, then there will be the
potential for very storng storms. The higher chance for storms and
most likely area of development will again be the higher terrain in
Colorado just west of the area. Storms are forecast to develop in a
fairly moist enviornment that has MUCAPE around 3000 J/kg. With mid-
level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km and effective shear around 40-50
kts, sustained storms and supercells are possible. This could allow
for large to very large hail to form, potentially exceeding 2-3".
There is also a small threat for a tornado with the strong storms,
but weak low level flow and shear looks to keep the chances minimal.
This is also why storms may struggle to sustain as near surface
winds are forecast to be weakly from the southeast, while the winds
around and above 700mb are forecast to be from the west. This could
cut the storms off of their base a bit. Circling back to the
potential early storms, if these storms do not form then the rest of
the area will be primed for storm development as well with similar
threats. The question for this area is will the dryline advance far
enough east or will daytime heating along be adequate enough to
break the forecast cap in the area. If either of these are true,
then we would have two lines of storms moving through the area.
Otherwise, storms and severe weather would be isolated for most of
the area. It is also worth mentioning that severe winds would be a
likely threat should a strong outflow or cluster of storms develop.
Winds around 50kts at 500mb and downshear vectors at 50 kts both
suggest that likely gusts would be around 55-65 mph. It is worth
noting that some guidance like the HRRR and RRFS are trying to
produce 75-80 mph wind gusts with downbursts. Will need to keep an
eye on this day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

***Synopsis***

Troughing at 500-mb looks to be set up across the Western United
States Tuesday morning, with southwesterly flow overhead. This would
be associated with a strong low pressure to the west of the County
Warning Area (CWA), establishing southerly to southwesterly surface
flow across the region. Model guidance is inconsistent on the
development and eastward progression of the 500-mb trough, though
GEFS and EC 500-mb mean-spread guidance suggests that it will move
overhead sometime Wednesday. When the trough does move overhead, a
cold front is likely to move through the forecast area. Ensemble
guidance is in favor of this upper-level trough developing into an
upper-level low somewhere across South-Central Canada Thursday, and
persisting through the end of the period, moving very slowly
eastward with time. Guidance is uncertain on how this will impact
the forecast area beyond Thursday, specifically regarding what
shortwave systems will develop around the low, and how strong they
will be.


***Tuesday***

With troughing to the west, conditions across the area look to
become hot. Forecast highs Tuesday are currently in the upper
90s and lower 100s. Southerly to southwesterly surface flow, in
addition to the hot temperatures, would support dry conditions
as well. Currently, forecast relative humidities (RH) are in the
lower to upper teens across most of the forecast area. As such,
critical fire weather conditions could be a concern Tuesday
afternoon. LREF guidance suggests that portions of Eastern
Colorado have the best opportunity to see RH meeting critical
fire weather criteria (15% or less), as high as a 50% chance.
Additionally, this same zone has a 90% chance or better to
receive wind gusts over 30 mph according to the NBM, which is
well-above criteria for the hazard (25 mph or greater).
Confidence in a Red Flag Warning being needed is highest for
these Eastern Colorado Counties (Yuma, Kit Carson, and Cheyenne)
at around 30%. A small chance for showers also exists, though
24-hr NBM precipitation guidance shows less than a 15% chance
for all areas to receive greater than 0.1 inches of
precipitation. The bigger risk for showers would be from dry
lightning as an additional source for fire ignition.


***Wednesday-Thursday***

As the 500-mb trough moves eastward and overhead, the broad surface
low would move eastward as well, allowing a cold front to traverse
the area sometime on Wednesday. Forecast highs are slightly cooler
than Tuesday, in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Despite these
slightly cooler conditions, RH values are favored to drop even
further, possibly into the single-digits in some areas. Fire
weather appears to be a potential hazard again, as LREF guidance
suggests that even zones as far east as the US-83 Corridor in
Northwest Kansas have a 40% chance or better to see RH values
meeting criteria for the hazard. NBM guidance does suggest that
wind gusts may be weaker on Wednesday than Tuesday, but still
shows a 1 in 3 chance across most areas of meeting criteria for
critical fire weather, with as high as a 90% chance in portions
of Yuma County in Colorado. Confidence in a Red Flag Warning
being needed is once again highest in Eastern Colorado at around
30%. Warm and dry conditions continue on Thursday, with highs
forecast in the mid 80s to lower 90s, and RH as low as the lower
teens. While critical fire weather may once again be possible,
forecast wind gusts max out around 30 mph. NBM guidance does
still show the highest chances for wind gusts meeting critical
fire weather criteria across portions of Eastern Colorado, in
the 60-85% range. Even so, NBM guidance often overestimates wind
gusts for the CWA, which lowers confidence in a Red Flag
Warning being needed Thursday to around 15%. Similar to Tuesday,
showers are possible both days, but have a low chance of
occurrence. The greatest risk again would be from dry lightning.



***Friday-Saturday***

Again, model guidance is a bit more uncertain by Friday,
specifically regarding the presence, timing, and intensity of a
shortwave trough moving south-southeastward out of Canada.
Precipitation may be allowed to return ahead of this shortwave, as
NBM 48-hr precipitation guidance suggests up to a 45% chance for
greater than 0.1 inches of precipitation between Friday and Saturday
combined. The greatest of these probabilities are east of the US-83
Corridor. Hotter temperatures may be allowed to return ahead of this
shortwave as well, especially with a deeper shortwave. Such a
solution exists with the 12z EC deterministic model, which shows
that temperatures in the 90s may be achieved ahead of a strong
shortwave system Saturday afternoon. These temperatures would be
around 10 degrees hotter than Saturday`s current forecast
temperatures in some areas, which are in the lower to upper 80s.
Even so, both the temperatures and precipitation experienced Friday
and Saturday are in question due to uncertainties with the
shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM MDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast for the first few
hours. However, ceilings around 500-1500ft are developing a few
counties south of the area. These low clouds should move north
over the terminals around 10-12Z and linger through about 15Z.
Some dense fog with visibility close to 1/2 SM is possible, but
would likely last less than an hour if it did occur. Favored
time is around 12Z. Once the fog and clouds clear, VFR
conditions are forecast for the remainder of the period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...KAK