335
FXUS63 KGLD 131117
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
517 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significantly cooler weather expected today and Wednesday with
  an increasing chance of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday.

- Threat for first frost of the season increasing Friday and
  Saturday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 100 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

An upper low will dig into the Great Basin today, move into the
Four Corners Wednesday, northeast Colorado Wednesday night,
before finally moving into eastern Nebraska on Thursday. At the
surface, a cold front will continue to move through the area
overnight, but will stall out near or just south of Highway 96
later this morning before moving south again late this
afternoon. Areas of fog will develop by 12z this morning west of
Highway 83 and into northeast Colorado, persisting through
about 17z. Low clouds will linger a bit longer, through about
21z, so there will be at least a few hours of afternoon sun.
Temperatures will likely struggle to recover in such a short
amount of time and high temperatures may only reach the 50s and
60s. Latest HREF probabilities show a 20-40% probability of
temperatures greater than 60 north of Interstate 70, 40-60%
between Interstate 70 and Highway 96, and likely probabilities
south of Highway 96 where temperatures will be warmest. REFS
mean is very similar. Tonight, extensive low clouds will return
by 06z. Models not showing much in the way of fog development
with the lack of radiational cooling, though would not be
surprised if patchy fog developed with low temperatures forecast
near the dew point. RAP soundings at 12z show cloud thicknesses
around 1 km, so may see some drizzle or very light rain
develop.

As the upper low approaches, the light rain will begin to
expand in coverage Wednesday afternoon, then become widespread
Wednesday night with the upper low in northeast Colorado.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be limited by the extensive low
cloudiness and developing precipitation. HREF means are in the
upper 40s to lower 50s and 50th percentiles are in the 40s,
which is certainly possible. The rain will continue through
Thursday morning followed by a gradual decline Thursday
afternoon before ending Thursday night as the upper low moves
out. Total 48-hour precipitation for the event ranges from 0.25"
to 0.50" generally south of Interstate 70 and 0.50" to 1.00"
north of Interstate 70, though some locally higher amounts in
excess of 1.00" will be possible north of Interstate 70 (NBM
probabilities around 40% for that to happen), though probably
will not stray much higher than that with mostly stratiform
rain expected. NBM high temperatures on Thursday are optimistically
in the upper 50s, though 25th-50th percentiles are in the lower
50s which may be more realistic. Finally, assuming clouds clear
enough Thursday night, may see frost or even a light freeze in
northeast Colorado by Friday morning as temperatures fall into
the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Guidance initially places the Tri-State area in zonal flow Friday as
we position between a ridge to the west over the Rockies and a
trough to the east over the Great Lakes. The ridge really starts to
take form Saturday into Sunday. Southwest upper-level flow should
accompany this setup with strong high pressure at the surface. The
upper pattern is forecasted to weaken a bit Monday as a new system
swings in from the west. This briefly ushers in westerly flow back
to the County Warning Area (CWA) with weak low pressure at the
surface. Surface analysis currently shows no cold fronts or
other frontal boundaries moving through the area at this time. A
warming trend is likely to influence the coverage area Friday
through next Monday as high pressure and southwesterly flow
dominate.


It will likely be a dry period for us as any precipitation would be
limited to shortwave passages. Thus, probability of precipitation
(PoPs) are less than 5% the entire long-term forecast period due to
lack of sufficient moisture. As mentioned above, warmer
temperatures are likely heading into next weekend. Friday`s
highs in the upper 50s should warm up to the mid 60/low 70s
Saturday. Sunday/Monday`s highs are fixing to reach the
mid/upper 70`s. It will be seasonably pleasant with dew points
in the 20s and 30s, moistening up to the 40s by next Monday.

Critical fire weather is not expected to be a huge concern heading
into the weekend but will absolutely need to be monitored as this
work week goes on, nonetheless. Relative Humidity (RH) values are
expected to bounce around the 20s and 30s for the most part. The
days to keep an eye on will be Saturday and Sunday as RH may dip
into the teens. Surface winds Saturday will be from the southwest
generally around 10-25 mph, gusting to 35 mph. Sunday`s winds will
sit around 5-15 mph, shifting from the southwest to northeast and
potentially gusting up to 20 mph. Other than that, the rest of the
forecast period should see a general 5-20 mph range of winds. Fire
weather concerns will be mainly focused in our eastern Colorado
counties, west of US-385 where stronger wind gusts line up with
lower RH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM MDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Low ceilings will result in IFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK
through early afternoon. Areas of fog will also impact KGLD this
morning with occasional VLIFR conditions before lifting by
around 17z. A period of VFR conditions is expected this
afternoon and evening, before the low clouds return tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/AMP
AVIATION...024