452
FXUS63 KGLD 172302
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
502 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are forecast to impact the area this afternoon
  and evening.  These severe storms have the potential to produce
  damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, large hail over 2 inches
  in diameter, and maybe a tornado or two. The threat of intense
  winds of 70 to 100 mph has decreased.

- Localized dust storms could accompany the severe storms, but the
  threat of a wall of dust has decreased.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

The severe thunderstorm threat has diminished across most of the
forecast area due to a lingering cold pool and more stable airmass
from the rainfall this morning.  This is very evident over the past
few hours on radar as severe storms over the high plains of eastern
Colorado move into Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties and immediately
begin to weaken.  There will be some further warming of the airmass
through the afternoon hours, but a mid to high level cloud deck of
dense cirrus from the thunderstorms forming east of the Front Range
will limit overall warming.  The end result will be far less
instability than previously expected for the thunderstorms to tap
into.  The top end threat will be some scattered severe storms
capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts that form
in the late afternoon and early evening hours, generally between
4 pm and 8 pm mountain for the western third of the forecast area.
Further to the east, the cold pool should effectively kill off the
severe threat for today.  All of the latest CAMS indicate that the
threat will quickly diminish after 8 pm as the greatest dynamic
forcing shifts to the east and ignites a stronger line storms
across southern and central Kansas.

Increasing negative vorticity advection and deep layer subsidence
will take hold of the area late tonight and tomorrow as a strong
longwave ridge axis moves in from the west.  Some weak cold air
advection will also occur, and this will keep temperatures fairly
mild with highs only warming into the mid 80s beneath clear skies.
This cool and dry airmass will allow overnight lows to dip into
the 50s and lower 60s tomorrow night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

A very strong deep layer ridge axis will dominate the forecast area
through the weekend.  Hot and dry conditions will be the rule as this
ridge slides through the region.  The heat should peak over the
weekend when the ridge and overall subsidence will be greatest.
Model temperature spread is fairly low, and there is a high degree
of confidence that temperatures will warm into the low to mid 100s
this weekend.

The ridge will begin to pull to the east on Monday, and a transition
back to a more humid regime will take place as the low level wind
field shifts back to the east and southeast.  In the upper levels,
lower heights associated with an approaching longwave trough parked
over the Pacific Northwest and a more favorable jet structure aloft
will combine with the increasingly favorable thermodynamics to
induce additional convective activity on Monday and Tuesday.  The
convection will once again form along a dry line boundary, but the
exact location of the boundary is tough to determine this far out.
Given this uncertainty in the dry line location, the forecast
calls for isolated convective activity across the entire forecast
area each day as reflected by PoP values of 20 to 30 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM MDT Tue Jun 17 2025

At GLD, the primary concern will be the potential for redeveloping
thunderstorm activity capable of producing periods of IFR visibilities
and lower ceilings to around 2000 feet.  Gusty winds over 30 knots
could also be a concern as the storms move through.  The primary
threat for thunderstorm activity at GLD will be between 00z and 02z.
By 03z, the convective threat should be over and a much drier and
more stable airmass will begin to move into the area.  This will
result in prevailing VFR conditions from 03z through the end of the
TAF period.

At MCK, the convective threat is substantially lower this evening
due to the very stable rain-cooled airmass in place.  At most,
some passing light rain showers could push visibility down to MVFR
range for a few hours between 01z and 06z. Light boundary layer
flow around daybreak tomorrow will combine with higher soil moisture
content to support some patchy fog development between 10z and 14z.
The boundary layer will fully mix out after 14z resulting in
prevailing VFR conditions.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLD
LONG TERM...GLD
AVIATION...GLD