855
FXUS63 KGLD 280523
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1123 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms are possible this aft-eve, mainly in
  eastern CO and nearby KS/NE border counties between 3-11 PM
  MDT. Localized wind gusts up to 75 mph are the main threat. A
  few instances of quarter size hail, locally heavy rainfall and
  nuisance flooding are also possible. Low confidence in
  thunderstorm coverage.

- Showers/storms are possible through much of the week, mainly
  during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The remainder of the Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire as
the threat for hazardous heat has ended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge centered over the
Rockies and adjacent portions of the Central and Southern Plains
will persist through the short term period.

No change to ongoing Heat Advisory. Forecast on track.

Through Tonight: A small amplitude wave (or mesoscale
convective vorticity maximum) evident on visible satellite over
northwest and north-central Colorado this morning appears to be
the primary mechanism driving showers and extensive cloud cover
in the lee of the central Rockies. This feature is expected to
slowly track east (along the northern periphery of the ridge)
across the Rockies this aft-eve and Tri-State Area tonight-Tue
morning. In the lower levels, a mesoscale high (assoc/w showers
and pervasive clouds) over northern CO and the NE Panhandle has
shifted the lee cyclone southward into southeast CO and
southwest to south-central KS, resulting in NE-ENE low-level
flow and rich low-level moisture advection from central-southern
Nebraska into northwest KS. The 12Z NAM NEST suggests that
development will occur along the Palmer Divide and I-70 corridor
near the KS-CO border ~4 pm MDT (22Z) this afternoon. Recent
runs of the HRRR suggest that low-level convergence in vicinity
of the lee cyclone and strong heating over southwest KS will aid
in convective development further south, between Lamar and
Cheyenne Wells, by ~3 pm MDT (21Z), with additional development
possible along the Palmer Divide in Lincoln County, and that
ensuing convection will gradually track eastward over western KS
late this afternoon and evening. Given the complex nature of
the mesoscale pattern over the region, low confidence persists
with regard to storm location/coverage. In environmental
conditions characterized by 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1500-2000
J/kg DCAPE and modest (20-30KT) effective deep layer shear,
updrafts could be unorganized, multicellular and/or
supercellular in nature (a wide variety of the organizational
spectrum). For what it`s worth, simulated reflectivity forecasts
via the HRRR and NAM NEST suggest multicellular clusters with
transient supercellular organization. With the above in mind,
damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, mainly in
eastern CO and adjacent KS-NE border counties between 3-10 pm
MDT.

Tue-Tue night: Early morning convection will, no doubt, modify
environmental conditions over the region. Guidance suggests
cooler temperatures (highs in the 90`s) largely associated with
a convectively modified airmass. Guidance presently indicates
that late afternoon and evening storms developing along the
Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide will largely be confined
west of the Goodland CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

***Wednesday/Thursday***

A longwave ridge looks to still be overhead at 500-mb Wednesday
based on GEFS and EC ensemble guidance. At the same time, a
shortwave trough centered over California looks to begin moving
anticyclonically around the ridge. A surface low at the leading edge
of the trough is forecast to provide some showers and thunderstorms
in the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. The best chances for
precipitation are across portions of Eastern Colorado, where NBM 24
hr precipitation guidance shows a 50-70% chance for greater than 0.1
inches of rain. Chances that these thunderstorms become severe
appear marginal at this time, as LREF guidance and GFS/EC model
soundings show 0-6 km shear maxing out around 30 to 35 kts. The
greatest threat with these storms would be brief wind gusts around
60 mph, as GFS and NAMNST soundings show the possibility of an
inverted-V sounding profile, favorable for microbursts. As the
shortwave trough moves east of the forecast area, chances for
showers on Thursday reduce dramatically. NBM precipitation guidance
shows most of the forecast area at less than a one in three
chance to receive greater than 0.1 inches of rain. Confidence in
severe weather occurring is highest on Wednesday, though is
still only around 5-10%. High temperatures both Wednesday and
Thursday are forecast in the 90s across the area.


***Friday/Saturday***

As the trough begins to move southeastward across the Midwest
Friday, a cold front may begin breaking down the upper level ridge
to the east of the forecast area. This will cause the ridge axis to
translate westward into the Four-Corners Region, and establish
approximately north-northwesterly flow over the area at 500-mb. High
temperatures could hover in the lower 90s Friday and Saturday as
this pattern favors northeasterly surface flow. Precipitation
chances continue to fall during this period, as PoPs (probability of
precipitation) fall below 15% across nearly the entire area.


***Sunday/Monday***

Ensemble guidance supports another strong trough moving across the
Northern United States and Southern Canada Sunday. This would once
again bring the ridge axis over the forecast region, but with a
positively tilted orientation. Temperatures may rise into the mid
and upper 90s once again Sunday and Monday as this occurs. Drier
conditions are forecast as well, as GEFS 850-mb height mean-spread
guidance supports approximately southwesterly surface flow under
this pattern. Relative humidity (RH) values may drop as low as the
lower 20s on Sunday, and upper teens on Monday. While these RHs are
low, they do not meet critical fire weather criteria (<15%).
Additionally, NBM guidance suggests that wind gusts have less than a
50% chance of exceeding 30 mph across most of the area either day.
The main exceptions are portions of Northeastern Colorado and
Southwest Nebraska, where there is up to a 70% chance. As such, the
development of critical fire weather conditions across this zone may
be something to keep an eye on, especially since fuels are drier
across these areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Numerous showers and storms are ongoing currently around each
terminal. If a a shower/storm were to impact a terminal then a
brief period of gusty winds and MVFR conditions would occur.
After 09Z current thinking is that coverage should lessen some
which is the reasoning for the PROB30 for now. Should storms
continue they would last through sunrise Tuesday. Winds for the
day Tuesday are forecast to begin from the northwest before
shifting to the east through the day. Am watching for another
round of storms, potentially impact GLD towards the latter part
of the period. There is some question if a cluster of storms
will make it to the terminal, but current thinking is it will so
will maintain a PROB30 for now.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Davis
AVIATION...Trigg