764
FXUS63 KGLD 291223
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
623 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dense Fog Advisory in effect until about noon for the entire
  area today.

- Mild conditions are forecast, but fog is possible each morning
  through at least Sunday.

- An active weather pattern may develop late this week,
  bringing potential for more widespread precipitation
  throughout the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Current observations have broad upper southwest flow over the area,
bringing in a few high clouds. At the surface, high pressure has
moved in from the north and is pushing east of the area. Fog has
been trying to develop this morning with NW Kansas and SW Nebraska
under easterly flow at the surface. However, the slight northerly
component has made the upslope flow not as strong. Also, the high
level cloud cover has occasionally insulated temperatures and
hindered fog development. This will likely continue for a few hours
during the early morning hours. However, the upper level cloud cover
should lower in coverage while winds shift to be more easterly, at
least in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska. This should help fog develop
around sunrise, with dense fog also likely developing in areas. For
now, Highway 36 and south are favored where it has been clearer. Any
fog and low cloud cover that forms should persist through most of
the morning, with the cloud cover even forecast to persist into the
afternoon. This should lead to a disparity in temperatures with 60s
in Eastern Colorado, but 50s in NW Kansas and SW Nebraska.
Otherwise, there may be a few showers east of a line from Leoti, KS
to Trenton, NE this afternoon and evening as a small low pressure
center tries to build just southeast of the area.

Tonight, fog is forecast to try and return to the area as we remain
near saturated at the surface. If the precipitation doesn`t form or
ends early, there will likely be dense fog before sunrise. Even so,
it may be more patchy as mid to high level cloud cover is forecast
to pass over in the southwest flow and try to keep temperatures
insulated and up. Either way, it should be a damp and cloudy night
with temperatures likely lingering in the 40s.

Friday, the broad southwest flow aloft continues. That being said,
tilted troughing is forecast to move in and help develop low
pressure along the Front Range. This is forecast to strengthen the
low level flow from the southeast and help keep low level moisture
in the area. The winds may become just strong enough to dissipate
any fog by the late morning hours. Should the fog break, highs
should reach the 60s. Otherwise, temperatures will likely cap again
in the 50s. But with the low just west of the area and a shortwave
forecast to move through the upper flow, showers and maybe a storm
are forecast to develop later in the day Friday. NW Kansas and SW
Nebraska are favored, with rain totals ranging from a trace to maybe
up to a quarter of an inch. The lack of strong forcing and
instability is expected to keep the rain totals low.

Friday night, any showers should slowly end from west to east as the
shortwave pushes east and the surface pressure pattern becomes less
defined. However, with the low pressure still to the west and high
pressure to the east, fog should develop again in the weak easterly
upslope flow. Similar to the past few night, dense patches are
possible. The main inhibitor will be any lingering rain and the mid
to high level cloud cover over the area. Temperatures should again
lower into the 40s.

Saturday, the pattern is not forecast to change much with upper
southwest flow and the area between surface low pressure to the west
and high pressure to the east. As such, conditions should be similar
with a foggy start to the morning followed by mostly cloudy skies
through the remainder of the day. Temperatures are forecast to near
60. Fog would then be a concern again going into the overnight hours
Saturday and into Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For Sunday, high temperatures are forecast in the 50s to 60s. Storm
chances start Sunday evening with PoPs of 50-75% increasing west to
east. Precipitation type will likely be rain based on forecast
temperatures and cloud cover. Instability is overall weak with
modest lapse rates and spotty CAPE values of <500 J/kg, so a weak
thunderstorm or two isn`t out of the question for the eastern county
warning area (CWA) if it is able to tap into the weak instability in
the environment.

Upper-level features are likely to send us into a more active
weather pattern Sunday through at least Tuesday. A deep trough is
forecast to extend from the Pacific Northwest (PNW) southeast with a
second trough not too far behind it in the western Pacific. As these
features propogate east, it will allow the subtropical jet to drift
north placing a strong jet streak across the region Sunday. Models
also show a surface low develop in eastern Colorado Sunday evening
and propogate east sometime overnight into Monday. Ensembles
generally agree that the low will set up in eastern Colorado, but
diverge on when it will traverse east and where it will set up.
Currently, ensembles show the surface low setting up somewhere in
the Central Plains or the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. The interaction,
track, and evolution of these surface and upper-level features will
play a major role in our weather pattern heading into the work week.

The upper-level pattern could support a high wind event Monday and
Tuesday, but the big question will be where the surface low tracks
and the amount of cloud cover across the CWA. Clear skies will allow
stronger winds to mix down to the surface while clouds will keep the
winds above the surface. If we end up with clear skies and a low
further south or east of the CWA, we could see wind gusts up to 60
mph Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Dust would be unlikely for areas
that received precipitation over the weekend and current forecast
lapse rates are unsupportive of dust being lofted. A low tracking
over the CWA would likely increase precipitation chances and cloud
cover, overall lowering risk for strong winds. Low confidence in
which scenario will play out. It will heavily depend on the track
and evolution of the aforementioned upper-level troughs over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For KGLD & KMCK... Dense fog and low ceilings around 200-500 ft
are forecast through at least 15Z. After that, conditions should
slowly improve with KMCK likely reaching MVFR before 18Z and
KGLD close to 18Z. After that, ceilings will likely hover around
1000-2000ft with KMCK potentially having skies clear. After 00Z,
the fog and low ceilings are forecast to rapidly move back over
the terminals. Dense fog and ceilings around 200-400ft will be
likely by 06Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ090>092.
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...KAK