692
FXUS63 KGLD 041804
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1204 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible (20-60%) through
  the start of next week. Best chances will be Saturday night.

- Limited severe weather threat. Heavy rain, cloud to ground
  lightening and isolated strong wind gusts primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Upper ridge has reorganized over the Southern and Central Plains
and will be the dominant upper feature. The Central High Plains
will be under weak southwest flow on the western side of the
ridge axis through the weekend. Upper winds do increase some on
Monday as a shortwave trough swings through the Northern Rockies
and adjacent plains and the ridge moves into Missouri.

CAMs show isolated to widely scattered convection this afternoon
and evening generally along a weak convergent boundary that
extends from around Tribune in northwest Kansas to McCook in
southwest Nebraska. Relatively best storm coverage will be on
the southern end, with more isolated coverage further north.
REFS shows instability ranging from 500-1000 j/kg along the
Kansas and Colorado border to up to 2500 j/kg from McCook to
Norton. Deep layer shear is around 25 kts. While the probability
of severe weather will be low, cannot completely rule out a
marginally severe wind gust given favorable DCAPE of up to 1500
j/kg. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible given slow
storm motions and precipitable water values of 1.00-1.50". Peak
coverage will be around 03z, but isolated showers and storms may
persist into the overnight.

Setup for Saturday will be similar to today. Another wave in
the southwest flow will initiate convection in eastern Colorado
in the afternoon which then moves east into the area during the
evening hours. REFS shows instability of 1000-1500 j/kg and
deep layer shear of 15-20 kts. CAMs suggest much better coverage
with the convection on Saturday, with initial discrete cells in
Colorado rapidly merging into clusters in northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska in the evening. DCAPE continues to be
favorable and wind will be the primary severe hazard. Flooding
concerns may develop during the evening hours with the weak flow
aloft promoting slow storm motions. CAMs show localized 6-hour
precipitation amounts in excess of 2" as they move through the
area. Storm coverage peaks in the evening then gradually
declines through the overnight hours.

Upper ridge axis will be almost directly over the area on
Sunday. CAMs show convection developing in southeast Colorado as
well as the usual mountain and Front Range convection in the
afternoon. Locally, convection will struggle under the ridge
and chances will be isolated at best, primarily associated with
weakening showers and storms in the evening originating from the
Front Range.

Ridge moves east on Monday with increasing southwesterly flow
over Colorado. Models show fairly widespread convection
developing in the afternoon in eastern Colorado and moving
northeast into the area Monday night. With those storm motions
best chances will be in the northeast corner in the evening
(Tri-border area) then continuing into Nebraska overnight.
Instability and shear forecasts remain on the weak side, though
deep layer shear does approach 30 kts in northeast Colorado with
the increasing flow aloft. However, overall severe threat
appears marginal at best with wind the primary hazard. Heavy
rain should be less of a threat with the faster storm motions.

Little change in temperature is indicated through the period,
with highs mostly in the 90s, a few spots potentially hitting
triple digits.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Long-term guidance is currently suggesting that the tri-state area
should continue to see effects from a fairly strong longwave ridge,
slowly propagating across the plains and upper-midwest Monday. This
setup will keep our area in southwest flow aloft through most of the
forecast period. Model guidance is keying in on an upper-level
jet streak, which should begin to eject thru this ridge on
Tuesday. Deamplification of said ridge is expected through the
end of the four day timeframe, which should make the region more
susceptible to shortwave passages. At the surface, low-pressure
sets up over western Kansas through next Thursday. A slight
cool down, accompanied by daily chances for afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated over the course of the
week due to lessened effects of the ridge.

Ensemble guidance is hinting at daily PoPs (Probability of
Precipitation) through Thursday of next week as shortwaves move
through the synoptic system. There is also medium confidence of a
frontal boundary setting up and moving through the county warning
area (CWA) late Tuesday into Wednesday. For Monday, PoPs
currently stand at 30-65% for locations north of I-70 with
chances south of the interstate being much lower. A more uniform
15-35% is forecasted for the area Tuesday. Wednesday and
Thursday should follow suit with a bit more modest 15-30% PoPs.
Dewpoints are forecasted in the mid 50s to 60s, providing ample
moisture to the environment. Confidence of thunderstorms forming
in the CWA is low at this point in time due to lower
instability values forecasted across the region.

Unseasonably hot and breezy conditions will persist throughout the
region as the ridge evolves. High temperatures in the low to upper
90s Monday transition to more upper 80s/low 90s by Thursday. Low
temperatures should follow a similar pattern, going from 60s/70s to
more uniform 60s across the CWA. Surface winds are forecasted to
start off Monday at 15-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. The stronger
winds will occur on the more northern and western areas of the tri-
state region, 15-30 mph are expected there along with gusts up to 40
mph. Winds should weaken for the remainder of the forecast period,
as 5-15 mph is anticipated, with gusts up to 25 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1105 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight have a low
probability, around 20%, of impacting either location with brief
gusty winds as well as reductions in visibility and ceilings in
rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK/AMP
AVIATION...024