696
FXUS63 KGLD 110648
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1248 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moving through the area this morning. Gusts in the
  40-55 MPH range expected, isolated 60 MPH gusts possible.

- Plumes of blowing dust this morning and midday will impact air
  quality and may lower visibility.

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions possible in eastern
  CO and adjacent KS border counties on Thursday and Friday.

- Precipitation chances look to return late in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1242 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Chances for precipitation are low tonight, but if we do get any
convection, it looks to be along and north of U.S. 36, quickly
moving out of the area. If convection moves into the CWA, it would
likely (90%) remain sub-severe. Overnight temperatures are expected
to cool into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Currently, a high coming out of the Northern Rockies is pushing a
cold front into the northwestern CWA while a low moving over the
southern CWA is pulling in the same front. With the FROPA, winds
look to be in the 25-40 kts range, but as the morning progresses,
occasional 45-50 kts gusts are expected. These gusts are expected to
be fairly isolated, keeping confidence too low to issue a High Wind
Warning. However, most likely areas to see 50 kts gusts will be
along U.S. west of Oakley to the CWA border. Peak winds will occur
around 11-17Z, and gradually weakening throughout the afternoon
hours. Highs look to be topping out in the mid 70s to low 80s across
the area.

Threat wise, there is a chance for blowing dust. Due to weak lapse
rates as the FROPA occurs, the potential for a wall of dust is less
than 5%. Between 12-18Z, lapse rates slightly improve and there is
an increased risk for plumes of dust to reduce visibility. After
18Z, lapse rates are more supportive for blowing dust, but the winds
start weakening. As it stands there`s about a 40% chance visibility
will drop below 1 mile in a plume of blowing dust and a 75% air
quality will be reduced from blowing dust. The dust threat peaks
around 15-18Z and ends when gusts reduce to less than 27 kts.

Additionally, there is a returning risk of critical fire weather
conditions for today. The winds mentioned above and RH values
dropping into the teens as we reach our daily maximum temperatures
are allowing GFDI values to climb around 60 in parts of eastern
Colorado. However, the best winds are before RH values tank, leading
to about 40% confidence Red Flag criteria is hit. The rest of the
area looks to peak in the 30-50 GFDI range.

Winds will be fairly weak overnight and from the east as an inverted
ridge pushes past the CWA. This should allow temperatures to cool to
around 50. Also, behind this front, the high will lead to zonal flow
in the mid to upper levels.

Friday morning, a high will be moving out of southern Colorado and
will push a warm front through the area. This will lead to southerly
winds to be gusting 30-40 kts during the morning hours. Once again
winds will be weakening in the midday and afternoon hours. There is
a low-end fire weather threat for eastern Colorado again, but RH
values look to largely remain above critical thresholds.

Around 0Z Saturday, a 500 mb shortwave trough looks to move over the
region, which looks to be enough forcing to cause some weak storms
to fire. No notable impacts are expected from these storms and they
look to be focused on the evening hours. Once the storms clear out,
temperatures look to cool into the mid 50s to upper 60s, remaining
warmer where the precipitation was.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Saturday, our region is in a mostly zonal flow with a weak jet
streak overhead. A surface low is forecast to set up somewhere
in western Kansas, although ensembles disagree on how far south
it will be. High temperatures are forecast in the 80s to 90s
with the southwest county warning area (CWA) on the higher end.
Kit Carson county will likely have a few hours of elevated fire
weather conditions Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts around 35 mph
are possible coinciding with relative humidity (RH) values
around 20%. Grassland Fire Danger Index (GFDI) values are around
60 for central Kit Carson county, so any fires that start have
the potential to grow and spread out of control quickly.

Beginning late Saturday, chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase as a series of embedded shortwaves move through the
region. A cold frontal passage and increased upper-level support
from a jet streak overhead will aid precipitation development.
Chances for showers will continue Sunday through Monday with
Probability of Precipitation (PoPs) around 30-50%.

Sunday and Monday will be cooler in the wake of a cold frontal
passage. Highs are expected to be in the 60s to 70s. We continue
to see chances for showers and thunderstorms due to weak
shortwave passages and increased upper-level support from a jet
streak overhead. Severe potential is low due to cooler
temperatures and limited instability. Sunny skies and a warming
trend will start Tuesday through the rest of the forecast period
with highs in the 80s for Tuesday and 90s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1047 PM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period at
both KGLD and KMCK. KMCK looks to have showers remaining
northwest of the airport, but could see some move over and lead
to some light precipitation. A strong cold front will soon be
entering the region. Arrival time at KGLD looks to be around
0945Z and KMCK between 9-10Z. With the cold front, winds will
rapidly become northwesterly and be gusting in the 25-30 kts
range, gradually increasing to be around 40 kts about sunrise.
KMCK and KGLD could see some storms move over the airport
behind the front, but KMCK has the notably better chance.
Blowing dust is also possible before 18Z today, when winds will
be strongest. Winds will gradually weaken in the afternoon and
into the evening hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Rhoades
AVIATION...CA