706
FXUS63 KGRB 091141
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
641 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold this morning, with a Frost Advisory out for counties where
  the growing season continues.

- Moderating temperatures the rest of the week with readings at or
  above normal.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Friday, along
  with increasing winds.

- Additional rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cold this morning, followed by moderating temperatures through the
rest of the forecast period. One more dry day, then a more active
setup starts to take shape.

Temperatures...Ongoing Frost Advisory remains in effect until
14Z/9AM. Temperatures at 4AM were mainly in the middle 30s across
the advisory area. Temperatures moderate after this morning, with
the rest of the week expecting readings AOA normal. Overnight lows
will mostly be in the 40s, with daytime highs in the upper 50s and
60s.

Precipitation...Dry weather today, then opportunities for rain
are on the horizon. A cold front and compact upper low bring a
medium to high chance (40-60%) of rain tonight through Friday
night. Coverage will initially be scattered to widespread, becoming
widely scattered Friday afternoon after the surface front passes
through. Isolated thunder is not out of the question due to a
small bit of instability, but severe storms are not expected.
Amounts will generally be around a quarter of an inch or less,
with the highest forecast totals across far northern and northeast
WI where NBM probabilities of at least a quarter inch range from
30-50%.

High pressure builds back for most of the weekend. Then, deep
troughing develops across the western CONUS late this weekend with
a strong upper jet stretching from the Four Corners Region to the
Great Lakes. This will help send a few different features through
next week which could bring rain. First, with a cold front Sunday
night into Monday, followed by a low pressure system during the
midweek, but models are not set on exact timing and specifics this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period; however, the
return of clouds and rain showers are expected tonight.

Aside from some scattered low clouds near Door County and the lake
shore, skies were clear and winds were light or calm across
central and northeast Wisconsin. By mid to late morning, south winds
increase a bit, with a few afternoon gusts of 15-20 knots
possible, mainly for central and north-central WI. Winds increase
for all locations late this evening and overnight with gusts
around 20 knots.

Clouds move in late this evening for central and north-central WI,
and around midnight across the Fox Valley and lake shore. These
will initially be mid-clouds, with bases lowering around daybreak
Friday. Along with the clouds, scattered rain showers will be
moving in from west to east after midnight. Cannot rule out some
isolated thunder, but likelihood at any one place was too low to
include in the TAF forecast.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ020-022-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KLJ