271
FXUS63 KGRB 122255
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
455 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance.

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the
  lower 60s possible in central and east central Wisconsin on
  Saturday.

- Below normal precipitation expected over the next week, with
  only minor precipitation events possible Saturday and Monday
  night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Strong west to northwest winds were gusting to 30 to 40 mph
this afternoon. Abundant sunshine and downsloping winds allowed
temperatures to climb into the 40s to lower 50s. The winds
will subside by sunset/early evening, but are not expected to
completely decouple overnight. As a result, have bumped low
temperatures up a few degrees over much of the forecast area.
Mostly clear skies should afford very good conditions for Aurora
viewing tonight.

High pressure will bring dry weather for the rest of the work
week, with abundant sunshine and WAA leading to a gradual warmup.
As the high shifts east Friday and Friday night, developing south
flow will bring much warmer air into the region, with 850 mb
temperatures warming to +13 to +16 C early Saturday morning.
Current forecasts show us falling a bit short of records for
warmest low temperatures Friday night, but these may be very close
in parts of central and east central WI. Potential for record
highs on Saturday is a bit lower, as cloud cover and an earlier
than ideal frontal passage may limit daytime heating. That being
said, if the frontal timing is a few hours later and there are
breaks in the cloud cover, we could get into the middle to upper
60s in east central WI (right near record territory). The cold
front is quite strong, but looks to be moisture-starved, so only a
small chance of light showers or sprinkles is expected over
northern and eastern WI on Saturday. Much cooler and blustery
conditions (gusts to 25 to 30+ mph) return Saturday night into
Sunday, as 850 mb temperatures plummet to -7 to -10 C. Wind
trajectories look too westerly for any significant lake-effect
snow showers in north central WI, though scattered snow showers
will probably impact the WI/MI border area.

A surface ridge will build into the region Sunday night into
Monday, accompanied by dry weather. The next low pressure system
approaches Monday night into Tuesday, though models still
disagree on whether or not it will track far enough north to bring
precipitation to the forecast area. Previously, the ECMWF
ensembles were tracking this system farther north, but the latest
run has trended farther south. As such, it looks more likely that
the low will miss us to the south or just brush our southern
counties, which certainly fits with the dry pattern we`ve had in
recent weeks/months.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 455 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions expected through the entire TAF period.

Through 08Z Thu: 5000 ft ceilings will erode shortly after 00Z
near the U.P. border, resulting in clear skies across the region.
WNW surface winds will be diminishing from gusting to 20 kts to
under 10 kts by 08Z. Low-level Wind Shear (LLWS) remains a factor
at all terminals (excluding KMTW) due to 35-40 KT winds at 2000
FT AGL, expected to wane shortly after 08Z.

06Z Thu Through 00Z Fri: VFR with greater than 6 SM visibility and
skc sky conditions. Winds increase during the day to west 10-15
kts gusting to 20 kts, with the highest gusts near KGRB, KMTW, and
KATW. Scattered high clouds are expected late in the period.

Outlook: VFR continues Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......MPC