


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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562 FXUS63 KGRB 171149 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 649 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm today and Saturday, with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s. Temperatures trending closer to normal for the rest of the week. - Periodic showers and a few thunderstorms expected from this afternoon through Sunday morning. - Windy periods also expected late this week, with south winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph today, and northwest winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Showers had decreased in coverage over the past couple hours, in response to a warm front lifting north into Upper Michigan. However, WAA in association with a 30-40 kt low-level jet was still generating scattered showers in a very moist air mass (PWATs 1.25-1.50 inches). Temperatures were quite mild early this morning, with readings in the 50s to around 60 range. Any lingering showers should shift northeast of the region shortly after daybreak, with partial clearing and increasing south winds (gusting to 25 to 30 mph) helping to boost temperatures into the upper 60s to middle 70s this afternoon. Low pressure in Manitoba will track into northwest Ontario, with a trailing cold front moving into NC/C WI late this afternoon. This front will bring showers and a few storms to north central and central WI later today, and to the rest of the forecast area tonight. Another cold front arrives Saturday afternoon/night, with a potent negatively-tilted short-wave inducing cyclogenesis along the boundary as it shifts east of the region late tonight into Sunday morning. Models have trended a bit farther east with the low pressure system, thus reducing potential for heavy rain in eastern WI, and lowering the probabilities for gale force gusts on the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Widespread light to moderate rain will still spread across the region late Saturday into early Sunday morning, and gusts over the land areas should still reach 25 to 30 mph on Sunday. Rain tapers off by Sunday afternoon, with dry weather persisting through Monday morning. Another cold front and short-wave arrives Monday afternoon afternoon and evening, along with potential for widespread light to moderate rainfall, which should continue through Tuesday. Small precipitation chances linger though the mid to late part of the work week, especially over the northeast half of the forecast area. After a warm start today and Saturday, temperatures are expected to trend closer to normal for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions, dry weather and LLWS will prevail at the TAF sites this morning, but the LLWS should wane as gusty south surface winds develop toward midday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will return to NC/C WI mid to late afternoon, as a cold front arrives. Have added a mention of thunderstorms at the western TAF sites, but will only mention showers once the precipitation reaches the eastern TAF sites later in the evening. LLWS is expected to redevelop by this evening as surface winds weaken and strong southwest winds aloft persist. The LLWS will taper off from west to east during the late evening and overnight hours. Clearing skies are expected across the northwest half of the forecast area overnight, and decreasing winds should allow at least patchy fog and low clouds to develop at the western TAF sites. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Kieckbusch