743
FXUS63 KGRB 051827
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1227 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty northwest winds continue this afternoon into Friday, with
  the strongest wind gusts expected this afternoon and evening.
  There is a 40-60% chance of wind gusts of 40 mph or greater
  across northern Door County.

- Scattered snow showers are expected across northern Wisconsin
  late this afternoon and tonight. A light dusting of snow is
  expected at most spots. Localized bands of snow could produce
  locally higher amounts in Vilas County.

- Near normal temperatures on Friday and Saturday, then above
  normal temperatures expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A cold front moved across the area overnight and early this
morning. Behind the front, gusty northerly winds were noted as
temperatures ranged from the upper 30s far north to around 50
across east-central WI at noon. Scattered rain showers were
noted across the north and across northeast WI.

Latest model guidance suggest strong cold advection across
northeast Wisconsin this afternoon behind the front. Bufkit
soundings indicated steep low level lapse rates that will help
mix down the stronger winds aloft. Went a little higher on wind
gusts this afternoon based on the fact latest wind gusts across
central and north-central Wisconsin were a little higher than
numerical guidance. Bufkit soundings still support the strongest
wind gusts over northern Door County where gusts to around 40 mph
are possible. Significant differences in the NBM and LREF probability
guidance for winds of 40 mph greater over northern Door County.
The NBM indicated only a 20% chance of gusts over 40 mph while
the LREF was at 60-70% Looking at bufkit data at Deaths Door
(northern Door County), soundings would support wind gust to or
around 40 mph, especially between 2 pm and 7 pm. Meanwhile over
the north, precipitation is likely to change over to snow over
north-central WI. A light dusting of snow will be possible,
especially across Vilas County. Of note, the latest HRRR indicated
bands of snow moving into north-central and far northeast
Wisconsin during the night, thus there is a very small chance for
localized higher snowfall amounts over a half inch if these bands
materialize. Confidence is low if this would occur, and exactly
where it would occur. Lastly, an upper level disturbance combined
with the northerly flow could bring a chance of rain showers to far
eastern Wisconsin later tonight into Friday morning, especially
across Door County.

Otherwise, tranquil conditions are expected through the middle of
next week. After near normal temperatures on Saturday, temperatures
should run well above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1101 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Windy conditions should prevail this afternoon into this evening
with northwest to north winds of 15-25 knots with gusts of 25-35
knots. Locally higher gusts are possible across northern Door
County.

Otherwise, MVFR CIGS will continue this afternoon into this
evening, rising into the VFR category across central and east-
central WI tonight. Scattered showers will come to an end for most
this afternoon as a strong cold front moves away from the area.
Scattered rain showers will come to an end for most this
afternoon. The only exception will be across the north will rain
is likely to change over to snow later this afternoon and evening.
There is also a continued chance of rain showers across Door
County into the Green Bay and Manitowoc. Winds will gradually
subside on Friday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A Gale Warning remains in effect until 9 pm this for the bay and
lake. The strongest core of winds expected to move across the area
during the mid afternoon into early this evening. After the Gale
Warning expires, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 6 pm
Friday due to the continued gusty winds and high waves.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Eckberg
MARINE.........Eckberg