388
FXUS63 KGRB 251054
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
554 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected this morning on
  Lake Michigan.

- Some rivers and streams will remain above bankfull and near
  flood stage into the middle of the week.

- Next period of significant rain and chances for storms arrives
  on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 459 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Lingering showers and storms will exit the area early this
morning, with quieter weather expected the next couple of days.
Next round of showers and storms arrives on Friday into Saturday.

Showers and storms will end by around 12z. It is looking mainly
dry for the rest of today into tonight, but will carry a small
chance for a shower or sprinkle across mainly central WI later
this afternoon and evening as a weak boundary drops across the
state. Instability looks pretty meager, so while a stray rumble of
thunder can`t be rule out, will not include. Models try to
generate some showers on Wednesday, as a shortwave crosses the
area, along with a weak boundary. Will throw in a slight chance
for showers to cover this threat. Quiet conditions are expected
Wednesday night into Thursday as high pressure slides over the
Great Lakes. The next chance for widespread showers and storms
arrives Friday into Saturday as a frontal system and shortwave
trough push across the region. Two waves of precip look to occur.
First with a leading shortwave, moisture advection and LLJ on
Friday. Then a second chance with a deeper trough late Friday into
early Saturday (if timing holds). Overall instability look to be
limited due to cloud cover, so the severe weather threat looks to
be low. PWATs of around 2" will bring the threat for heavy rain
and some minor flooding. Another system may bring showers and
storms to the region early in the next work week.

Highs today look to be in the upper 70s and 80s for most
locations. It will be a little cooler on Wednesday with some
highs in the upper 60s over far northern WI, with 70s elsewhere.
Temps the rest of the week and weekend look to average near to
slightly below normal. It will remain on the humid side today,
with less humid conditions arriving tonight into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 553 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A thunderstorm complex has cleared the TAF sites this morning,
with low clouds lingering across the area through around 15Z. The
low clouds could lower conditions to MVFR/IFR at times, especially
across north-central Wisconsin. Once the low clouds clear, VFR
conditions are expected to rest of today into tonight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ022-
040-050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Kurimski