419
FXUS63 KGRB 061915
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
215 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions for the rest of the Labor Day weekend. Patchy fog
  is possible late tonight into Monday morning.

- Next chance of rain and storms (60-80%) late Monday night
  through late Tuesday night. Strong storms are possible Tuesday
  and Tuesday night.

- Gusty winds and high waves Tuesday through Wednesday will likely
  result in hazardous conditions for small craft and an increased
  risk of rip currents at Lake Michigan beaches.

- Above normal temperatures continue into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Remainder of Labor Day Weekend...The prevailing high pressure and
upper-level ridging will keep dry conditions in place for this
forecast period. The only minor impact would be the potential for
patchy fog to develop late tonight into Monday morning, but the
potential for dense fog is low. Temperatures will remain above
normal with overnight lows in the mid 50s to low 60s, and highs on
Labor Day ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s.

Late Monday through Late Tuesday Precip/Storm Potential...The ridge
and high pressure will gradually depart late Monday as return flow
sets up ahead of an approaching system/cold front. Ahead of the
front, a southwesterly LLJ (35-45 kts) and increasing WAA will aid
in rain showers and a few elevated storms starting late Monday night
in north-central WI and spreading/moving east/southeast across the
remainder of the forecast area through late Tuesday night. It
appears the majority of the precipitation will be pre-frontal. Given
the greater instability, stronger sheer, steeper mid-level lapse
rates will be associated with the cold front, this leads to a
conditional risk of strong/severe storms sometime Tuesday
evening/night, but will depend on frontal timing and how much cloud
cover will be around from the morning precipitation. There will also
be an increased risk of heavy rainfall/downpours given PWATs will be
around 1.75-2.00 inches throughout the period. In addition to the
precip/storm potential, breezy south winds are expected on Tuesday
gusting to 20-25 mph, followed by westerly winds on Wednesday
gusting to 30-35 mph.

Rest of the forecast...Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry
with the next chance of showers/storms on Friday evening into
Saturday. Near normal temperatures are anticipated on Thursday, but
will rise above normal again Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Besides some SCT/BKN afternoon cu with cloud bases between 2000
to 3500 ft AGL in east-central to far northeast WI, good flying
conditions prevailed across the region. These lower clouds will
rise/dissipate into the evening with the loss of daytime heating.
VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period
with high clouds moving overhead at times. However, a few spots in
east-central and far northeast WI may see some brief MVFR vsbys
early Monday morning due to patchy fog.

Today`s southeast winds less than 10 kts will become light and
variable overnight. Winds turn south Monday morning and increase
to 5 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday and result in
increased waves on the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and Green
Bay. Winds will veer west on Wednesday and remain gusty. During
these periods, conditions will likely be hazardous to small craft.
There will also be an increased risk of rip currents mainly Tuesday
into Wednesday morning, or until winds turn offshore. Small Craft
Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kruk
MARINE.........Kruk