351
FXUS63 KGRB 282342
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
642 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost development is expected in far north-central WI late
  tonight into early Friday morning. A Frost Advisory remains in
  effect for Vilas County.

- Small chance of rain in central WI Friday. Otherwise, dry and
  comfortable through Labor Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Precipitation Chances...Dry conditions are expected through the
remainder of the evening and night as surface high pressure
gradually slides over the region from the north. Despite the high
pressure system situated over the Great Lakes region, models
indicate a weak mid-level shortwave, RRQ of a jet, and some low-
level f-gen shifting southeast over western WI on Friday. As a
result, models are spitting out some light showers in western WI
throughout Friday, that may reach portions of central WI. Continued
the trend from the previous forecast to include low-end PoPs in
these areas. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the holiday
weekend due to the presence of the high pressure system and upper-
level ridging. The next chance for widespread showers and potential
thunderstorms looks to arrive sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday as
a deepening trough dives over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Frost Potential/Temperatures...In the wake of this morning`s cold
frontal passage, cooler air has filtered into the region and will
continue overnight. Overall, little change to the areas of greatest
potential for temperatures of 37 or below (far north-central WI).
These areas will still be at the greatest risk of seeing frost
development late tonight into early Friday morning, however, as
mentioned in the previous forecast, there is still a signal for
potential fog or stratus development in these areas as well,
hindering frost development. Given the continued trend of
fog/clouds, decided not make any changes to the Frost Advisory for
Vilas County. But, anticipate there will still be patchy frost in
portions of Oneida, Forest, and Florence Counties. Obviously, if
conditions trend towards less fog/clouds, the advisory will need to
be reassessed. Temperatures for the holiday weekend will gradually
warm to near normal with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Quiet aviation conditions expected, with the exception of some
ground fog in NC WI overnight into early Friday morning. After a
mostly clear night, expect SCT cumulus clouds to develop late
Friday morning, with additional mid-level clouds increasing
southwest with the arrival of a weak short-wave in the afternoon.

Light and variable winds are anticipated, with speeds under 10
knots.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ005.

Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ050.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch