487
FXUS63 KGRB 040441
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1041 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday with a few
  locations possibly setting a record low or record low maximum
  for the date.

- Below normal temperatures will continue into next week along
  with periodic chances for light snow.

- There is a 40-80% chance winds will gusts over 30 mph north of
  Sturgeon Bay in Door County Thursday night. The highest chances
  will be near Deaths Door and Washington Island.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Prolonged northwest flow across the region will set up an extended
period of cold weather accompanied by intermittent chances for
snow.

Temperatures...
The coldest night in the forecast will be tonight as much colder
air follows in the wake of the cold front today. As skies clear
overnight, conditions will be set for a very cold night with
temperatures in the single digits below zero everywhere but along
the shoreline of Lake Michigan. Breezy winds during the overnight
period will bring wind chill readings to around -20 to -15 degrees
for much of the area, again with the lakeshore areas being the
only exception especially Door County. While this does not quite
meet the criteria for a Cold Weather Advisory, this will still be
the coldest morning of the season and anyone expecting to spend
time outdoors in the morning should prepare to stay warm! Daytime
temperatures will also be quite cold, with staying predominantly
in the teens for most of the area. These temperatures may set
record low max readings in the region.

Cold air then lingers on in the region through the remainder of
the forecast period, with highs staying in the 20s Friday and
Saturday, dipping back to the teens on Sunday, and then 20s again
for early next week. The overnight period Sunday will likely also
feature a particularly cold night, with temperature again
dropping below zero for much of the area.

On and Off Snow Chances...
Northwest upper flow will bring several fast moving shortwaves
through the region, often accompanied by fast moving light snow
showers. The first of these will likely cross the region on
Friday. Numerical guidance suggest that this will likely bring
only minor accumulations in the range of a few tenths for most,
which is supported by probabilistic guidance painting out only
small patches of around 15% chance of getting around an inch of
snowfall.

Saturday may be the next chance for snow, as the ECMWF hints at a
more northerly track for a shortwave. This again would result in
brief light snow and accumulations up to a few tenths. That said,
the ECMWF is the outlier at this time, with both the GFS and NAM
still taking a more southerly route and keeping our area dry.
Maintained low pops in the forecast for the time being.

Finally, Monday into Monday night will see a stronger clipper
system move through the region which may bring a ore significant
snowfall to the area, especially across the northwoods. Will
continue to keep an eye on this system as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Cyclonic, northwest flow across Lake Superior will continue to
produce lake effect snow showers, flurries and clouds tonight over
Upper MI and northern WI. A period of MVFR ceilings is possible
at RHI, but the more widespread clouds will remain closer to the
MI border. Otherise, look for mostly clear and cold conditions
overnight. Some mid and high clouds will spread across the region
on Thursday, with some lower clouds (MVFR) arriving towards 06z
Friday, along with some light snow and flurries.

Northwest winds of 5-15 kts will continue overnight, with a few
gusts to 20 kts possible. Winds will shift to the west early
Thursday morning then to the southwest late Thursday morning/
afternoon, with gusts to 20 kts by mid-afternoon. As a low-level
jet strengthens late Thursday afternoon and evening, look for
LLWS to spread west to east across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday December 4th,
with a few locations possibly setting a record low or record low
maximum for the date. December 4th (record low/year(s) & record
low maximum/year(s)):

Antigo (-13/1985 & 8/1991), Appleton (-9/1940 & 14/1929,1942),
Green Bay (-8/1977 & 15/1976), Manitowoc (-2/1976 & 13/1976),
Marshfield (- 16/1919 & 11/1972), Merrill (-23/1919 & 8/1976),
Oshkosh (- 5/1977,1985 & 11/1991), Rhinelander (-22/1927 &
8/1972), Stevens Point (-11/1902 & 10/1972), Sturgeon Bay (-
1/1940 & 12/1976), Wausau (-7/1991 & 12/1991), Wisconsin Rapids (-
18/1940 & 9/1991).

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Bersch
CLIMATE........Uhlmann