204
FXUS63 KGRB 120952
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
352 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not as cold but blustery today with west/northwest winds
  gusting up to 40 mph.

- Moderating temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the low
  60s possible in central and east central Wisconsin Saturday.

- Below normal precipitation expected over the next week, with
  only precip chances (10-40%) on Saturday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Today and Tonight: Any lingering drizzle, light rain showers or
flurries will come to an end across far northern WI early this
morning as lake effect activity wanes with winds veering westerly
and drier air move in. No impacts are expected. The drier air
will also allow clouds to clear out over most of the area, with
only locations near the MI border hanging on to the clouds by
mid-morning. Incoming airmass pretty dry, but can`t rule out a
few daytime cumulus clouds later this morning and afternoon. West
to northwest winds will increase through the morning hours as
deeper mixing occurs. Model soundings support mixing to ~4,000 ft
by late morning, which supports wind gusts to 35 mph. A few gusts
to 40 mph are possible, but probabilities of 45+ wind gusts are
running under 10%. It will be a a little warmer today with highs
climbing back close to normal, with most spots topping out in the
40s, but with the gusty winds, wind chills will remain in the 20s
and 30s.

Thursday and Friday: Surface high pressure and mid-upper level
ridging builds across the western Great Lakes, bringing dry
conditions with only some high clouds across the region at times.
Gradual WAA will occur with temps climbing above normal. Highs
are forecast to climb into the mid 40s to low 50s on Thursday and
into the upper 40s and 50s on Friday. It will be less windy both
days, with gusts to 20 mph expected.

This Weekend into Early Next Week: Models have trended toward a
stronger low pressure system passing across Canada, dragging a
cold front across WI. But the front will be lacking moisture, with
the better forcing north of the area, it will be a struggle to
get much appreciable rain from the system. Current ensemble timing
should allow for the warmest day of the period to be on Saturday
with highs in the 50s to low 60s, but it will be close as the
frontal passage could occur by early afternoon. Records are running
in the mid 60s to 70 for Nov. 15, so those look safe at this point.
The front will bring a sharp return back to fall conditions on Sunday
as 850mb temps plunge from 9C-15C to between -2C and -8C Sunday
morning. This will drop highs back into the 30s and 40s, pretty
close to seasonal norms. A period of gusty southwest winds ahead
of the front and gusty northwest winds behind the front are
expected. Models diverge early next week regarding how/when an
upper low over the southwestern U.S. will eject out into the
Plains and eventually the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley. GEFS wants
to keep the system mainly to our south, while the ENS is further
north and slower, bringing higher precip chances to the area. Will
stick with the 20-40% chances the model blend gives us for now.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Areas of MVFR CIGS will continue overnight across north-central
Wisconsin where a chance of light snow or light snow is still
possible, otherwise VFR conditions are expected with clearing
skies on Wednesday morning. The big story will be the winds,
with low level wind shear continuing overnight. On Wednesday,
HREF probabilities were in the 80 to 100% range at the TAF
sites to reach 30 mph. Latest bufkit soundings also supported
these winds, thus increased winds on Wednesday with the 06z
TAF issuance. Winds will gradually subside late Wednesday
afternoon, with sustained winds dropping below 10 mph
by 02-03z Thursday.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Bersch
AVIATION.......Eckberg