716
FXUS63 KGRB 282330
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
530 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A winter storm will impact the region Saturday and Saturday
  night. Heavy snow is expected across central and east-central
  Wisconsin, where 6 to 12 inches of accumulation is forecast.
  Locally higher amounts exceeding 12 inches are possible near
  Lake Michigan.

- Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories have been
  expanded northward due to a northward shift in the storm track
  and expected heavier precipitation totals.

- Much colder air will arrive for the start of next week and then
  continue through the week. Wind chills may fall to 10 below
  zero or colder Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A major winter storm will bring a significant snowfall across the
area Saturday and Saturday night. The highest totals will be
across portions of northeast and east-central WI where over 10
inches of snow is possible.

Short Term (Today through Saturday Night):

Pesky low clouds and flurries continue across the north this
afternoon, The flurries should come to an end just after
sunset as the low erode. Any clearing would be in short duration
as mid and high clouds from approaching system. Low temperatures
will be highly depending on the duration of clearing this evening.

On Saturday, low pressure across the central plains will move to
near Chicago during the evening. Light snow is expected to break
out by mid-morning across central and east-central WI, and then
spread northward into early afternoon. The snow will become
heavy at times during the afternoon and evening. This system
has several factors going for it to produce copious amounts
of snow. Aloft, there is a coupled jet streak structure
which we in the favored right entrance region across
Canada while we are in the left exit region of jet streak
passing south of the area. Near the surface, models showing
some weak 850mb warm advection while models are depicting
an inverted trough setting up across northeast WI. To add to the
snowfall totals, persistent easterly flow off Lake Michigan,
where lake to 850mb temperatures differences of 12-14C were noted
to enhance totals along the Interstate/Highway 41 corridor east to
the lake. The Canadian model was supporting the potential for
several lake bands to move onshore Saturday afternoon and evening.
Based on the latest QPF/snowfall totals, Winter Storm Warnings
and Winter Weather Advisories has been extended northward this
afternoon. Latest snowfall forecast is calling for 6-12 inches
in the warning area, with locally higher amounts near Lake
Michigan. Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday
and beyond.

Long Term (Sunday through next Thursday):

Below normal temperatures are expected through next week. The
first subzero temperatures are possible Monday morning, along
with wind chill readings from zero to 15 below zero. There are
small chances of light snow Monday night, Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 517 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Pesky lake effect showers are slowing down across the north this
evening, though some flurries will remain possible at RHI through
tonight. Attention then shifts to heavy snow potential Saturday
morning through Sunday. Light to moderate snow arrives to the
central Wisconsin TAF sites by around 15 to 16Z Saturday,
spreading northeast to the remainder of the sites throughout the
day. Heaviest snow, with rates up to 1" per hour, will fall
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

Winds back to northwesterly and ramp up along the back edge of the
departing low early Sunday morning. Widespread gusts between 25
and 30 knots will be possible, which may result in blowing and
drifting of new snow and further reduced vsbys.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
for WIZ010>013-018-019-021.

Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for
WIZ020-022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Eckberg
AVIATION.......Goodin