327
FXUS63 KGRB 290322
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1022 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost development is expected in far north-central WI late
  tonight into early Friday morning. A Frost Advisory remains in
  effect for much of north central WI.

- Small chance of rain in central WI Friday. Otherwise, dry and
  comfortable through Labor Day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Precipitation Chances...Dry conditions are expected through the
remainder of the evening and night as surface high pressure
gradually slides over the region from the north. Despite the high
pressure system situated over the Great Lakes region, models
indicate a weak mid-level shortwave, RRQ of a jet, and some low-
level f-gen shifting southeast over western WI on Friday. As a
result, models are spitting out some light showers in western WI
throughout Friday, that may reach portions of central WI. Continued
the trend from the previous forecast to include low-end PoPs in
these areas. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for the holiday
weekend due to the presence of the high pressure system and upper-
level ridging. The next chance for widespread showers and potential
thunderstorms looks to arrive sometime late Tuesday or Wednesday as
a deepening trough dives over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Frost Potential/Temperatures...In the wake of this morning`s cold
frontal passage, cooler air has filtered into the region and will
continue overnight. Overall, little change to the areas of greatest
potential for temperatures of 37 or below (far north-central WI).
These areas will still be at the greatest risk of seeing frost
development late tonight into early Friday morning, however, as
mentioned in the previous forecast, there is still a signal for
potential fog or stratus development in these areas as well,
hindering frost development. Given the continued trend of
fog/clouds, decided not make any changes to the Frost Advisory for
Vilas County. But, anticipate there will still be patchy frost in
portions of Oneida, Forest, and Florence Counties. Obviously, if
conditions trend towards less fog/clouds, the advisory will need to
be reassessed. Temperatures for the holiday weekend will gradually
warm to near normal with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Generally quiet aviation conditions expected, with the exception
of some ground fog in NC WI overnight into early Friday morning,
and patchy MVFR ceilings near Lake Michigan. After a mostly clear
night, expect SCT cumulus clouds to develop late Friday morning,
with additional mid-level clouds increasing southwest with the
arrival of a weak short-wave in the afternoon. The short-wave
could generate a few showers in central WI, but these should not
impact any of the TAF sites.

Light and variable winds are anticipated, with speeds under 10
knots, except near the lake and bay.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for WIZ005-010>012-018.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kruk
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch