168
FXUS63 KGRB 022357
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
557 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic front will bring a chance of light snow (40-70%)
  tonight into Wednesday, followed by the coldest air of the
  season thus far. Snowfall accumulations up to an inch are
  expected, with an inch or two possible across Door County.

- Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday with a few
  locations possibly setting a record low or record low maximum
  for the date.

- Below normal temperatures will continue into next week along
  with periodic chances for light snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Snow then Cold rest of Today through Wednesday Night...

Flurries have been persistent across parts of central and northern
WI today as low-level warm advection overspreads the region.
However, local web-cams and surface obs are not indicating much
accumulations from these flurries. Snow is expected to become more
widespread and vigorous tonight as an arctic cold front moves across
the state. However, given much of the lift and moisture is located
below the DGZ snow totals should amount to to a trace to 1 inch
across most the region. Areas in far north-east WI, including
northern Door Co. may see locally higher amounts up to 2 inches.
Snow should come to an end front west to east Wednesday morning,
except across far north-central WI where light lingering lake effect
snow may persist much of the day.

Temperatures Wednesday will warm a few degrees during the morning
with highs in the upper teens to upper 20s. By the afternoon arctic
air should be settling in over the region causing temperatures to
plumet. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday morning are forecast to
fall into the single digits below zero, except along the Lake
Michigan shoreline where lows fall into the single digits above
zero. Coldest temperatures are expected across central WI where
clearing skies should make fore more efficient radiational cooling.
With a tighter pressure gradient northwest winds are forecast to
stay up Wednesday with light 5-10 mph winds creating wind chills in
in the teens below zero at most locations. A few locations in
central WI may dip see wind chills dip below negative 20 early
Thursday morning. At this time wind chills are expected to stay just
above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, however, will need to monitor
trends over the next few forecast cycles.

Thursday into Next Week...

Persistent northwesterly flow aloft is expected to continue through
this weekend and into the first half of next. This will keep the
below normal temperatures around through the extended period.
Several additional chances for light snow are also possible as weak
short-waves pass through the northwesterly flow. Thursday night into
Friday as a system passing to the north looks to bring the next
chance (30-40%) for light snow, mainly north of HWY 29. Another
system passing to the south this weekend may bring a dusting to
around 1" of snow to the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 556 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Blanket of low stratus (IFR/MVFR) will continue to remain in
place most of the region into tonight. But some breaks in the
lower clouds are expected at times this evening, but remained
quite pessimistic in the TAFs. Some flurries will remain possible
under these low clouds. As a cold front swings across the region
later tonight into Wednesday morning, a more widespread area of
light snow is expected, with accumulation remaining under an inch.
VSBYs should mainly stay IFR/MVFR, but a few of the heavier snow
showers could briefly drop VSBYs under 1SM. Behind the cold
front, some brief clearing is possible in the downslope areas of
eastern WI, but additional clouds are likely by early-mid
afternoon as cyclonic flow over the lakes will produce lake effect
clouds well inland. This flow will also produce some lake effect
snow showers and flurries, especially across north central WI, on
Wednesday. Southwest to west winds will gust to around 15 kts
tonight then shift to the northwest and gust to around 20 kts
behind the front on Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday December 4th,
with a few locations possibly setting a record low or record low
maximum for the date. December 4th (record low/year(s) & record low
maximum/year(s)):

Antigo (-13/1985 & 8/1991), Appleton (-9/1940 & 14/1929,1942), Green
Bay (-8/1977 & 15/1976), Manitowoc (-2/1976 & 13/1976), Marshfield (-
16/1919 & 11/1972), Merrill (-23/1919 & 8/1976), Oshkosh (-
5/1977,1985 & 11/1991), Rhinelander (-22/1927 & 8/1972), Stevens
Point (-11/1902 & 10/1972), Sturgeon Bay (-1/1940 & 12/1976), Wausau
(-7/1991 & 12/1991), Wisconsin Rapids (-18/1940 & 9/1991).

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......Bersch
CLIMATE........GK