154
FXUS63 KGRB 272032
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
232 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake effect snow will continue across Vilas County through early
  Friday morning. Additional accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are
  expected.

- Confidence has held steady for accumulating snow on Saturday and
  Saturday night. There is a 60-80% chance for greater than 6
  inches of snow over portions of central, east- central, and
  northeast Wisconsin, which may impact post-holiday travel. A
  Winter Storm Watch has been issued where the highest confidence
  in reaching 6 inches continues from previous forecasts.

- Much colder air will arrive for the start of next week. Wind
  chills may fall to 10 below zero or colder Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Water vapor imagery shows a potent mid- level cyclone spinning
over eastern Ontario early this afternoon. This feature is
projected to lift northeast into northern Quebec later tonight,
though deep cyclonic flow will remain firmly established across
the western Great Lakes. Looking upstream, the next system of
interest, poised to impact the region this weekend, is about to
make it onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

Short Term (Tonight through Friday):

Synoptic scale precipitation associated with the departing mid-
level cyclone will slowly diminish across northeast Wisconsin
this evening. There are some convective elements to the snow
showers noted across north-central Wisconsin, which could produce
a quick inch of snow through early this evening. Meanwhile,
flurries continue across the rest of the area due to diurnal
heating. This leaves lake effect snow showers over far north-
central Wisconsin, which will continue to wind down tonight. The
lake effect snow should taper off with sunset; therefore, will let
the Winter Weather Advisory expire at 6 pm.

Winds and Temperatures: A tight pressure gradient across the
region has resulted in a blustery day, with northwest winds of 25
to 35 mph. These winds will gradually subside this evening and
overnight as the gradient relaxes. Some clearing is expected
tonight over central to east-central Wisconsin, allowing
temperatures to fall into the teens to low 20s.

Long Term (Friday night through next Wednesday):

Attention turns to the storm system expected to impact the region
this weekend.

Weekend Storm: Guidance has shown a slight southward shift in the
track of the surface low due to pass across the region on
Saturday and Saturday night over the past 12 to 24 hours.
Consequently, probabilities of 6 inches or more of snow have
decreased for areas north of Highway 29. However, confidence
remains relatively steady south and east of a line from Wautoma to
Green Bay to Sturgeon Bay, where probabilities hold at 60 to 80
percent. While 50th percentile snowfall amounts have decreased
slightly in the NBM, signals remain for an inverted trough
extending up the west side of Lake Michigan. This feature could
generate a period of onshore flow Saturday and Saturday night,
potentially enhancing accumulation totals over eastern Wisconsin
due to lake enhancement and a deep dendritic growth zone. Being on
the northern edge of the system, the southward trend is somewhat
concerning regarding snowfall placement. However, the signal
remains strong enough to issue a Winter Storm Watch for areas
where probabilities are high enough (>60%) and the potential
exists for lake enhancement from the inverted trough across
eastern Wisconsin. Depending on the movement of the low in
subsequent runs, additional headline adjustments will likely be
necessary as the swath of heavy snow tracks north or south.

Temperatures: High pressure builds into the region for later
Sunday through Tuesday, ushering in a period of chilly
temperatures. Forecast lows will likely need to be lowered due to
the anticipated fresh and widespread snowpack, particularly on
clear nights. Wind chills early Monday morning may approach
10 below zero at some locations. An arctic front looks to
approach the area by Wednesday, bringing the next chance for
snow during the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue over north-
central WI through tonight, which will impact RHI with brief MVFR
vsby at times. Isolated light snow showers or flurries could
impact the other terminals. Expect MVFR to low-end VFR cigs to
scatter out this evening.

Northwest winds gusting to 20-30 kts this afternoon will
gradually subside through the TAF period.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ005.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
night for WIZ022-037>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kurimski