836
FXUS63 KGRB 072359
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
559 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A clipper system is expected to bring a swath of 1 to 3 inches
  of snow along and north of a line from Wausau to Green Bay to
  Manitowoc. Lesser amounts are expected farther south.

- A more potent clipper system is expected to bring another round
  of snow to the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday
  morning. This system is expected to produce 3-6 inches of snow
  over much of the forecast area. There is still some uncertainty
  in where the axis of heaviest snow will set up.

- Temperatures will moderate some by the middle of the week, then
  turn colder again late in the week. Wind chills of -10 to -25
  are possible Friday night into early Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low clouds and scattered flurries were observed across north
central WI this afternoon, but the clouds had eroded over the
past couple hours. High clouds were gradually increasing
elsewhere. Temperatures were much below normal, in the single
digits and teens.

Fast WNW flow aloft will continue through at least mid-week, with
a series of clipper-type systems moving through. The next clipper
approaches on Monday, with increasing south winds leading to
strong WAA during the day. Models suggest low clouds will develop
in the late morning, and there may be just enough saturation depth
for some flurries by afternoon. CAMs show that a north to south
oriented lake-effect band should stay out over Lake Michigan,
though a few flurries could impact the shoreline. The low pressure
system will impact the region Monday night, and should bring a
swath of 1 to 2 inches of snow north of a Wausau to Green Bay to
Manitowoc line, with perhaps up to 3 inches over northern Door
County.

The most impactful clipper system impacts the region from late
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, with strong upper
level forcing with a short-wave and coupled upper level jets,
and an intense low pressure system (985-990 mb). In addition,
this low will have remnant moisture from a Pacific Northwest
atmospheric river to work with. Current probabilistic forecasts
show a 50-80% chance of 4+ inches of snow across most of the
the forecast area. Far northern WI looks to be north of the main
QPF axis, and the far south could see a little rain mixed with the
snow, so the heaviest snow band will probably set up somewhere in
the middle. Winter Weather Advisories are looking likely during
this period, with a possibility of a narrow band of heavy snow.

Don`t see any big storms coming for the rest of the week, but
models are in agreement on the passage of a strong arctic cold
front during the Friday/Friday night time frame. This front could
bring wind chills of 10 below to 25 below zero Friday night into
Saturday morning. So, after mid-week "warm-up" (highs in the mid
20s to lower 30s), frigid temperatures will likely return late in
the week.

It will be a windy week, with low-end potential for southwest
gales Monday night and north gales on Wednesday, and higher-end
potential for northwest gales Friday into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 559 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions area-wide this evening aside from far north-central
WI (north of KRHI) as a area of low clouds remains. Mid/high
clouds to stream across the area overnight, so VFR conditions will
persist. Will start to see low clouds in central WI Monday
afternoon ahead of the next snow system. Some flurries are also
possible Monday afternoon, but the main snow will not arrive
until after 00Z/Tue.

Winds will be light from the NW this evening, becoming S/SW on
Monday with gusts of 15-20 kts Monday afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......KLJ