390
FXUS63 KGRB 241958
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
258 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A severe thunderstorm complex is expected to produce widespread
  damaging winds as it moves through the region in the late
  evening and overnight hours. Greatest impacts expected over
  central WI and the Fox Valley.

- Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected late tonight into
  Tuesday along Lake Michigan.

- Some rivers and streams will remain above bankfull into the
  middle of the week.

- Next period of significant rain expected Friday into Friday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

The main focus of the short term forecast will be the approaching
severe weather for the overnight period tonight.

A shortwave trough will trigger the development of a complex of
thunderstorms over eastern Minnesota this evening, bringing it
eastwards into and across Wisconsin overnight. Ahead of this
system, strong low level flow will prime an axis instability from
Minnesota through central WI. Any organized complex that forms
will then ride along this axis of instability, crossing central
to eastern Wisconsin sometime between 11 PM and 4 AM. General
model consensus develops the upstream storms into a fast moving
bowing thunderstorm complex, which would highlight damaging winds
as the most impactful severe threat. A couple brief spin ups
aren`t out of the question, as the 0-3km shear values will be
favorable on the northern end of the line, but in the context of
widespread strong winds, impacts between the two will likely not
be much different. Hail does not seem likely by the time storms
arrive. Finally, although another half inch to an inch of rain is
possible, the fast moving nature of the anticipated storms will
limit any flooding concerns but may keep river levels elevated.
Storms will push through the region by around daybreak, with
quieter conditions expected to return by Tuesday morning.

The passage of the storms is expected to push the frontal boundary
southwards, keeping any redevelopment Tuesday afternoon south of
our area and focused more towards Illinois.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday



Little impactful weather is expected through Thursday night,
with high pressure dominating for much of the period.

A frontal system is forecast to move through the region Friday
and Friday night. This system should have have a nice surge of
Gulf of Mexico moisture, as a 40-50 kt LLJ brings PWATs around
2 inches into the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be a
concern, but a lack of significant instability should limit the
severe weather threat. Another system may bring showers and
storms to the region early in the next work week.

Temperatures should average near to slightly below normal through
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the afternoon and most of the
evening hours before attention turns to a line of storms expected
for the late evening and overnight hours.

Storms tonight will form over Minnesota and western Wisconsin and
move east rapidly overnight. Arrival is expected in central WI
shortly after midnight and will rapidly progress eastwards. Storms
can produce damaging winds, especially in central WI and may also
briefly bring some large hail. The main uncertainty in the
forecast is whether any isolated activity develops ahead of the
main thunderstorm line, so made a mention of this in the 03Z
timeframe for AUW, CWA, and RHI. Any storm activity will end by
daybreak on Tuesday, with clearing skies expected to return not
too shortly after.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann/Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Uhlmann