551
FXUS63 KGRB 030851
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
251 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An arctic front will bring light snow to the area this morning,
  followed by the coldest air of the season thus far. Snowfall
  accumulations up to an inch are expected, with an inch or two
  possible across Door County.

- Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday with a few
  locations possibly setting a record low or record low maximum
  for the date.

- Below normal temperatures will continue into next week along
  with periodic chances for light snow.

- There is a 40-80% chance winds will gusts over 30 mph north of
  Sturgeon Bay in Door County Thursday night. The highest chances
  will be near Deaths Door and Washington Island.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Thursday

Snow will come to an end this morning from west to east as an
arctic cold front sweeps through the region. Snowfall amounts
should generally be around an inch or less, with up to 2 inches
possible across far northeast Wisconsin and northern Door County.
Far north-central Wisconsin will see snow continue through the
rest of today into tonight with lake effect from Lake Superior.

Temperatures will warm a few degrees during the morning with
highs in the upper teens to upper 20s. By the afternoon, arctic
air should be settling in over the region causing temperatures to
plummet. Lows tonight into Thursday morning are forecast to fall
into the single digits below zero, except along the Lake Michigan
shoreline where lows fall into the single digits above zero.
Coldest temperatures are expected across central WI where clearing
skies should make for more efficient radiational cooling where
lows could hit 10 below zero. A few locations in central and
north-central Wisconsin see wind chills dip to 20 below zero
early Thursday morning. At this time wind chills are expected to
stay just above Cold Weather Advisory criteria; however, will
need to monitor trends over the next few forecast cycles.

Thursday is expected to be dry as high pressure passes to the
south. Highs under the arctic airmass will be a solid 20 degrees
below normal as temperatures only reach 10 to 15 degrees during
the afternoon. These cold high temperatures will likely reach or
exceed record low maximums for the day (see CLIMATE section
below).

Long Term...Thursday Night Through Tuesday

The latest 500mb pattern forecast continues show a cold northwest flow
pattern with periodic clipper systems moving along the mean flow that
could bring a chance of light snow at times to the western Great Lakes.

For Thursday night, tightening pressure gradient across the western
Great Lakes will result in increasing winds by later in the evening
into the overnight hours. The main question is how far temperatures
will fall after sunset before winds pick up. Have temperatures
dropping around 5 degrees, but will likely steady out by mid-evening
and then rise some overnight. Most locations will see winds of 10
to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. The exception will be across
Door County, where there is a 40-80% chance winds will gusts over
30 mph north of Sturgeon Bay. The highest chances of the strongest
winds will be near the bay, and near Deaths Door and Washington
Island. The pressure gradient weakens late Thursday night and
Friday morning, bringing diminishing winds to the area. Attention
then turns to a weak upper level disturbance that could bring
another round of light snow to the area Friday into Friday evening
before tapering off. Most locations should see an inch or less.

For the weekend, the clipper system that was suppose to pass south
of the area Saturday night has trended northward on the ECMWF.
However, confidence is low if this scenario will play out as the
Canadian model keeps the system south and the GFS doesn`t indicate
any feature that would produce snow. Beyond Saturday night, models
are depicting a more potent clipper system Monday night into
Tuesday. Plenty of time to watch this feature and the evolving
trends on the track of the system. There is some indication in the
latest guidance that temperatures will moderate some by the middle
of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 929 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low MVFR/IFR stratus deck persists across northeast Wisconsin
through Wednesday, before finally breaking up Wednesday evening.
Northwest winds and surge of cold air advection in the vicinity of
a cold front will turn on the flurry machine Wednesday morning,
resulting in light snow affecting all of the TAF sites. Vsbys may
briefly fall into IFR territory within any pockets of heavier
snow. Brief window for clearing will be possible behind the front
Wednesday evening, mainly in the downsloping areas of east-central
Wisconsin. However, remnant cyclonic flow will produce lake
effect clouds that linger across north-central Wisconsin, where
light snow is likely to persist through the end of the TAF period.

Marginal LLWS concerns toward the beginning of the TAF period,
though 850 mb jet will exit the area by 12Z. Otherwise, winds
veer to northwesterly behind the front, with surface gusts to 20
knots possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 250 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Record or near record cold is expected on Thursday December 4th,
with a few locations possibly setting a record low or record low
maximum for the date. December 4th (record low/year(s) & record
low maximum/year(s)):

Antigo (-13/1985 & 8/1991), Appleton (-9/1940 & 14/1929,1942),
Green Bay (-8/1977 & 15/1976), Manitowoc (-2/1976 & 13/1976),
Marshfield (-16/1919 & 11/1972), Merrill (-23/1919 & 8/1976),
Oshkosh (-5/1977,1985 & 11/1991), Rhinelander (-22/1927 & 8/1972),
Stevens Point (-11/1902 & 10/1972), Sturgeon Bay (-1/1940 &
12/1976), Wausau (-7/1991 & 12/1991), Wisconsin Rapids (-18/1940
& 9/1991).

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Eckberg
AVIATION.......Goodin
CLIMATE........Eckberg