


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI
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488 FXUS63 KGRB 162250 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 550 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will trend warmer late this week, with highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s Friday into Saturday. - Periodic rain and a few thunderstorms expected this evening through Sunday. Heavy rainfall is possible in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with a 15 to 25 percent chance of amounts greater than 1 inch. - Windy periods also expected late this week, with south winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph on Friday, and northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph on Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 An area of light rain is approaching central Wisconsin early this afternoon as WAA and a LLJ work into the region. With relatively weak forcing CAMs tend to diminish the shower activity as it moves further west this afternoon, however, with ample moisture in place (PWATS up to 1.5") keep chance (30-40%) PoPs going through the evening. Another round of showers is possible tonight as a warm front, currently stalled across central WI, lifts northward across Wisconsin. The 850mb LLJ is also expected to strengthen to to around 40-45kts with a nose generally along the WI/UP border which is where the greatest precip chances are overnight. A few rumbles of thunder also remain possible, however, with minimal instability expect thunderstorm activity to be minimal. A brief period of ridging should bring an end to the precip Friday morning. After a brief dry period the chance (40-70%) for showers and isolated thunderstorms arrives Friday afternoon/evening as a cold front swings across the region. Ahead of the front breezy southerly winds will bring well above normal temperatures into the region with highs getting into the upper 60s to middle 70s at most locations. Scattered showers associated with the front are progged to continue into Saturday morning, however, recent ensemble guidance has been more progressive with the front pushing east of the region Saturday which may lead to much of Saturday trending dry, especially west and north of the Fox Valley. A potential more impactful system is forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday as an upper negatively tilted trough digs into the western Great Lakes inducing an area of cyclogenesis over lower Michigan. NBM probs to greater than 1" of rain have come down for Sunday, however, 15-25% probs are still present in the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas. Those area also have 30-40% probs for greater than 0.5 inches of rain. Along with the rain strong northwest winds are expected Sunday within the CAA regime. LREF probs show 40-60% chances for greater than 30mph gusts Sunday afternoon. Uncertainty increases into the start of next week, but ensemble trends favor a dry period Monday as another brief ridge builds over the region. By Tuesday the next disturbance is forecast to arrive return precip chances. Temperatures through next week are expected to be near normal for late October. && .AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 549 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Scattered showers and MVFR CIGs are expected to work their way east this evening from central Wisconsin to east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore as a warm front lifts through the area. Showers will continue into the early overnight hours according to the CAMs models with dry weather expected from west to east overnight through Friday morning. A cold front will bring another chance for showers Friday afternoon and evening as it tracks through the region. A strengthening low-level jet tonight will create a period of LLWS overnight, mainly across central and northern WI. Southerly surface winds are also expected to become breezy with gusts reaching 15-20kts later tonight into Friday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....GK AVIATION.......Kurimski