101
FXUS63 KGRB 061855
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
155 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue through the evening across eastern
  Wisconsin. No thunder expected.

- Freeze watch in effect for portions of northern, central, and
  northeastern Wisconsin for Tuesday night. Patchy frost could
  occur in the Fox Valley.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Main two concerns for the forecast period will be the ongoing
showers in the region through the evening today, followed by a
push of colder and drier air that will bring frost/freeze
headlines into the region for the middle of the week.

Precipitation...The cold front that brought rain to the region
overnight through this morning now is largely through Wisconsin,
residing in the southwestern corner of the state. As a result,
moisture and instability are much lower in the region this
afternoon and evening. Still, a pocket of post frontal moisture
and weak shortwave energy along a midlevel trough will sustain
some scattered shower activity across portions of central and
east- central Wisconsin through the evening and into the early
overnight hours. No thunder is in the forecast for this period
and rain amounts should remain light. Totals for new rainfall
going through the evening period are generally expected to be
around a tenth of an inch of rain or two, generally centered
around the Fox Valley and eastwards. A few locally higher amounts
may push closer to 0.30 to 0.40 inches as probability of exceeding
a quarter of an inch lingers around 20-40% in east-central
Wisconsin. Dry conditions are expected by Tuesday morning.

Temperatures... Cooler and drier air pushes in behind the cold
front the next couple of days. With colder air and clear skies by
Tuesday night, the region will be well set up for radiational
cooling, allowing low temperature to get into the middle to lower
30s for much of the area. Wouldn`t be surprised if some of the
coldest spots get into the middle to upper 20s overnight in the
hours before sunrise as well. As a result, a Freeze Watch has been
issued for much of northern Wisconsin Tuesday night, but wouldn`t
be surprised if additional Frost Advisory headlines won`t also be
needed for this period. If colder guidance continues to hold, with
probability of dropping below 32 degrees staying around 50-70%
west and north of the Fox Valley, wouldn`t be surprised if only
areas along Lake Michigan and the Fox Valley escape headlines.
Temperatues then moderate the next couple days, so while some
additional frost will be possible Wednesday night, the other
nights in the week aren`t expected to be quite as cold. High
temperatures during this period will generally still get into the
60s through the end of the week, but may see lower 70s again by
next weekend.

Finally, the next chance for rain will be around the end of the
week, with a weak front crossing the area late Thursday into
Friday which will include another chance for some light
precipitation across the area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Scattered showers will continue to move across the region today,
impacting mainly ATW, GRB, and MTW in eastern Wisconsin. A second
surge of moisture could still bring some showers to central
Wisconsin in the afternoon however, so added a PROB30 group to AUW
and CWA to account for any showers that may get further
northwards. Ceilings under the showers are largely MVFR, but
improvement to VFR is expected over the course of the evening as
drier air moves in.

Winds today and tonight will remain fairly light, but a few gusts
up to 15 knots will be possible tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for
WIZ005-010>013-018>021-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Uhlmann