844
FXUS63 KGRB 050022
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
622 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 50-80% chance winds will gusts over 30 mph north of
  Sturgeon Bay in Door County tonight. The highest chances will be
  near Deaths Door and Washington Island.

- There is a 40-80% chance of light snow Friday afternoon and
  evening. Snowfall amounts around an inch or less are expected.
  Freezing drizzle may mix in briefly as precipitation ends Friday
  evening.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
  moderating temperatures by the middle of next week, along with
  periodic chances for snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Persistent northwest flow across the region through next week will
continue to bring intermittent chances for light snow and below
normal temperatures for the forecast period.

Snow Chances Friday...
A fast moving shortwave will bring our next chance of snow Friday
and Friday evening. Initially, a push of warmer air aloft will
bring back cloud cover during the day Friday, along with some
light snow across northern Wisconsin and over Lake Michigan. With
the Bay of Green Bay still open, left some snow in the forecast
for Door County as well, but was more pessimistic of snow getting
elsewhere early in the day. As the cold air advection kicks up
again on the back edge of the shortwave would expect snow to
overspread the rest of the region with a round of snow. As things
stand, best snow chances remain limited to portions of central and
north-central, which may see around an inch or so of accumulation
by the end of the day. The rest of the region will likely see
lesser amounts closer to a half inch. Probabilistic guidance is in
general agreement, with around 30-50% of exceeding an inch in
portions of central and north- central Wisconsin, dropping off to
around 10% as you move east. Finally, as snow tapers to an end
Friday night, there may be a brief period of drizzle or freezing
drizzle as ice crystals become scarce aloft. The potential for
this drizzle will be fairly limited and short-lived, but a few
slippery spots may still be possible.

Snow Chances Saturday...
Another fast moving shortwave will bring a clipper system through
the region during the weekend. While the bulk of this system will
pass south of our area, the northern end will again bring a round
of snowfall through the region. Disagreement in the northerly
extent of snow remains in the models, but even the GFS does bring
a fast half inch to an inch to the region late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. This change has increased confidence in
accumulating snowfall during the overnight period for areas along
and south of Highway 29. Again, expect some minor slippery
stretches to develop.

Snow Early Next Week...
Finally, another more significant clipper will be possible early
next week, mainly Monday night. This system has some better
moisture and forcing accompanying it, which may make for a more
widespread accumulating snowfall once again.

Temperatures...
Below normal temperatures will linger on through early next week,
with highs generally staying in the teens. Low temperatures may be
quite cold once again, especially Sunday night when we may again
see widespread temperatures below zero. Fortunately, temperatures
do show some moderation again through the week next week, which
would bring temps back towards the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 622 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mid and high clouds will continue to spread across the region
early this evening, then lower clouds will arrive between 02-04z
(mainly MVFR and low-end VFR). Some light snow and flurries could
accompany these lower clouds, especially across northern and
central WI. Clouds will lower overnight into Friday morning
(MVFR/IFR), with more widespread light snow spreading into the
region late Friday morning into early Friday evening. IFR and a
few LIFR VSBYs are expected in the steadier/heavier snow. The
snow could end as a little freezing drizzle late Friday afternoon
and evening.

S/SW winds will increase this evening, gusting up to around 20
kts through most of the night. A LLJ of 40-45 kts will bring a
period of LLWS tonight as well. SW winds will generally remain
under 15 kts on Friday, with only a few gusts to 20 kts possible
over eastern WI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Bersch