860
FXUS63 KGRB 060418
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1018 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light to moderate snow will continue to spread across the region
  this afternoon and evening. Most locations should see around 1"
  of snow with locally higher amounts up to 2" possible in Door
  County. Freezing drizzle may mix in briefly as precipitation
  ends tonight.

- For late Saturday night into Sunday morning, there is a 25-40%
  chance for greater than 1" of snow south of a Wausau to Sturgeon
  Bay line. Elsewhere accumulations around an inch or less are
  expected. Chances of light snow taper off over northern WI.

- Two clipper systems are expected to bring another round of snow
  late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning, and then
  again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Snowfall amounts are
  uncertain at this time depending on where the exact storm track
  sets up. The system on Tuesday night and Wednesday has the
  potential to bring a heavier snowfall to the area.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with
  moderating temperatures by the middle of next week. Temperatures
  across central and east-central WI could flirt with 30 degrees
  Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Synopsis...Northwest flow regime is forecast to persist over the
next week with several rounds of snow, most light, and below normal
temperatures expected.

Rest of Today through Saturday...Short-wave currently centered over
the Twin Cities will continue to move east across Wisconsin through
this evening. Ahead of the wave WAA is producing light to moderate
snow which will continue through this evening. Accumulations are
expected to be around 1" for most locations, with some locally
higher amounts up to 2" possible in Door Co. Brief reductions in
visibility are possible which along with roads becoming snow covered
may produce some minor impacts for this evenings commute. Upstream
observations also indicate a transition to freezing drizzle is
possible on the backside of the snow. Forecast soundings also
support this as they show mid-level moisture in the DGZ quickly
getting stripped out of the column. Impacts from the freezing
drizzle should be minimized as it will be falling into a fresh snow.
Precipitation should come to an end from west to east overnight with
generally dry conditions expected for much of Saturday.

Snow Chances Saturday Night into Sunday...Next chance for snow is
forecast to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday as a short-
wave/low pressure system ejects out of the central Planes and moves
across the mid-Mississippi Valley. Strongest forcing with this
system is expected to stay well south of the region, however, weak f-
gen forcing associated with the deformation zone may make its way
into central WI and the Fox Valley and spur on a short period of
light to moderate snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. Greatest
chance for over 1" (25-40%) is south of a Wausau to Sturgeon Bay
line. NBM also shows a 20% chance for over 2" in and around the Fox
Valley by noon Sunday. Dry air pushing in from the northwest should
bring a rather quick end to the snow Sunday morning with most of the
region turning dry by the afternoon. Sunday night into Monday
morning may be a prime radiational cooling night if skies clear out
as high pressure is forecast to be directly overhead and winds
should go calm.

Continued Snow Chances Next Week...Long range ensembles support
multiple more clippers tracking across the Upper Midwest during the
early to middle part of next week. A system Monday night into
Tuesday may bring a round of accumulating snow for much of the
region. NBM shows 40-50% probs for greater than 2" of snow north
of HWY 29, and a 20-30% chance for greater than 3" across north-
central WI and northern Door. The most impactful system in this
series may come late Tuesday into Wednesday as a short-waves picks
up remnant moisture from a PNW atmospheric river which could lead
to greater snowfall totals. Current NBM probs show 30-50% chances
for greater than 3" north of a Stevens Point to Green Bay line.
Uncertainty is still high with the details for these systems next
week, so continue to monitor the forecast as details come into
better focus.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1018 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Snow is winding down across the area, with east-central WI and far
north-central WI still reporting light snow. Visibilities have
improved as the snow ends, but low clouds with bases around
700-1500ft in most places have kept MVFR and IFR flight conditions
for most locations. Cigs just above 3kft in parts of central and
east-central WI have allowed for VFR conditions.

Overnight, snow continues to end over the next couple hours, and
ceilings will gradually rise. Most places can expect VFR
conditions by Saturday morning, with the low clouds hanging around
far north-central WI until midday Saturday.

VFR conditions will likely persist Saturday afternoon and evening
(through the TAF period) with another round of light snow arriving
late Saturday evening and overnight.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......KLJ