739
FXUS63 KGRR 172347
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
647 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry Mix Tuesday

- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025


- Wintry Mix Tuesday

The weather system arriving early tomorrow morning has continued
to shift southward. Precipitation trends continue to shift
deepening on the location of the warm air advection. Current
trends have snow most likely along and north of the I 96 corridor.
Along and south of I 96 the warm air advection will cause a lack
of saturation in the DGZ. Warm air advection from latest CAMS has
+1C at 850mb into the I 94 corridor. That will limit snow
production. However, given marginal surface temperatures it could
mean some freezing rain/drizzle along with ice pellets at the
surface. Best QPF is along and south of the Michigan and Indiana
border.

The biggest concern will be that the wintry mix will arrive and
be strongest for the morning commute.

 The best chance for accumulating snow will be along and
northward of the I 96 corridor, though a half an inch or less is
expected. Between the I 96 and the I 94 corridor while snow
accumulations are expected, it will have quite the wintry mix,
with ice pellets predominate for a period.

 A wintry mix is expected along the I 94 corridor with the
biggest concern to be ice accumulations, especially bridges and
overpasses. Given the marginal temperatures any ice accumulations
will be along and south of the I 94 corridor. Have held off on any
advisory due to lack of certainty with amounts and temps.

Temperatures will warm after sunrise, though precipitation
will continue through the daytime, especially through southern
lower. Precipitation along the I 94 corridor should transition to
rain into the afternoon. Tuesday`s evening commute should be cold
and wet with slick spots.


- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

 Temperatures will continue to warm through the week with a return
to the 50s Thursday into Friday. However that will bring a chance
for rain Thursday night through Friday morning.
 Precip amounts will determine on low position, however the trough
should sweep through Thursday night though the best QPF remains
north and southward of Lower Michigan. Temperatures will continue
to trend around to just above normal through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 647 PM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail until snow moves in around 12Z. There
will be a quick transition to IFR conditions around that time
which will persist into Tuesday afternoon. Surface temperatures
will go above freezing by 18z and some drizzle or light snow
showers persist through the afternoon. Winds will go light and
variable this evening then go east southeast 10 knots or less
during the day.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ostuno/RAH